RENA Market Analysis Dec 2020 - Jan 2021 Insights
Discover key insights from the RENA market analysis for December 2020 and January 2021. Explore market trends, congestion data, oversold estimations, and more impacting RENA figures during this period.
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Review of RENA for Dec. 2020 and Jan. 2021 Jian Chen Market Analysis and Validation CMWG April 19th, 2021
Monthly Sum of RENA Monthly RENA 30 Millions 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 2019_1 2019_4 2019_7 2019_10 2020_1 2020_4 2020_7 2020_10 2021_1 2 PUBLIC
Daily RENA with RT Congestion in Dec. 2020 The total RENA in Dec. 2020 was around $5.1M, while the total SCED congestion rent was around $99.3M. Daily RENA vs RT Congestion Rent 2.00 12.00 Millions Millions 10.00 8.00 1.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 12/1/2020 12/6/2020 12/11/2020 12/16/2020 12/21/2020 12/26/2020 12/31/2020 sum_rent RENA 3 PUBLIC
Daily RENA and estimated DAM oversold in Dec. 2020 The total estimated DAM oversold amount in December 2020 was around $0.2M. Estimated DAM oversold vs RENA 1.50 Millions 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 12/1/2020 12/6/2020 12/11/2020 12/16/2020 12/21/2020 12/26/2020 12/31/2020 RENA Sum of Oversold 4 PUBLIC
OD 12/13/2020 About $1.2M RENA were observed on OD 12/13/2020. Most of the RENA was related to the RT constraint XNED258: NEDIN_138H. As the RT constraint XNED258: NEDIN_138H raised the prices in Valley area, the PTP w/links to options sourced from the Resource Nodes at NEDIN and DUKE were priced with negative values but settled as 0. The total negative values from those PTP options was around $1.0 M. 5 PUBLIC
Summary for December 2020 A total of $5.1M RENA observed in December, 2020. Most of RENA was related to PTP w/ links to options, which contributed about $3.8M. The highest amount happened on 12/13 with $1.0M The other part of RENA was related the differences between SCED and Settlement, and small amount of DAM oversold amount in the month. 6 PUBLIC
Daily RENA with RT Congestion in Jan. 2021 The total RENA in Jan. 2021 was around $5.4M, while the total SCED congestion rent was around $62.5M. Daily RENA vs RT Congestion Rent 2.0 12.00 Millions Millions 10.00 8.00 1.0 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.0 0.00 1/1/2021 1/6/2021 1/11/2021 1/16/2021 1/21/2021 1/26/2021 1/31/2021 sum_rent RENA 7 PUBLIC
Daily RENA and estimated DAM oversold in Jan. 2021 The total estimated DAM oversold amount in January 2021 was around $2.5M. Estimated DAM oversold vs RENA 1.2 Millions 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 1/1/2021 1/6/2021 1/11/2021 1/16/2021 1/21/2021 1/26/2021 1/31/2021 RENA Sum of Oversold 8 PUBLIC
Summary for January 2021 A total of $5.4M RENA observed in January, 2021. About half of RENA in January was related to PTP w/ links to options, which contributed around $2.7M RENA. The highest amount happened on 1/13 with $0.8M. Another major part of RENA in January was related to congestion oversold in DAM. The total oversold amount was around $2.6M. 9 PUBLIC
CRR Balance Account for December 2020 Daily CRR value vs DAM congestion Rent 8.0 Millions 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 12/1/2020 12/6/2020 12/11/2020 12/16/2020 12/21/2020 12/26/2020 12/31/2020 Payment/Charge to CRRAH DACONGRENT Daily Credit 0.8 Millions 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 12/1/2020 12/6/2020 12/11/2020 12/16/2020 12/21/2020 12/26/2020 12/31/2020 10 PUBLIC
CRR Balance Account for January 2021 Daily CRR value vs DAM congestion Rent 5.0 Millions 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1/1/2021 1/6/2021 1/11/2021 1/16/2021 1/21/2021 1/26/2021 1/31/2021 Payment/Charge to CRRAH DACONGRENT Daily Credit 1.2 Millions 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 1/1/2021 1/6/2021 1/11/2021 1/16/2021 1/21/2021 1/26/2021 1/31/2021 11 PUBLIC
RENA caused by Resource EPS meter price RN A RN B Meter A1 400MW X X X 1000MW G1 LN1 400MW Meter A2 G2200MW Meter B 800MW LN2 DAM awards: 800MW sold at RN A 800MW bought at RN B RT constraint: under the contingency loss of LN1, the flow through LN2 will be binding at the line limit of 800MW (shadow price at $200) System lambda: $300 ( also LZ price) 12 PUBLIC
RENA caused by Resource EPS meter price RN A RN B Meter A1 400MW X X X 1000MW G1 LN1 400MW Meter A2 G2200MW Meter B LZ 0% $300 $300 800MW LN2 RN A 100% $100 RN B 0% $300 Meter A1 Meter A2 Meter B 0% 100% $300 $100 SF LMP 0% RENA = (-1)*RTEIAMTTOT =Resource Revenue + RTSPP* DAM Purchase RTSPP*DAM sale - RTSPP* LZ load RENA = ($300*400+$100*400+$300*200) + ($300*800)-($100*800) - ($300*1000) = $80,000 13 PUBLIC
