Residential PV Performance Analysis in ERCOT Competitive Area
Explore the methodology and data on residential PV performance in ERCOT, including high output days in 2021 and 2022, peak outputs during summer and winter in 2021, and growth trends in ESIIDs and monthly maximum PV outputs from 2014 to 2022.
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Analysis of Residential PV Performance in Competitive Area of ERCOT Carl L Raish Principal Load Profiling and Modeling Retail Market Subcommittee June 7, 2022
Residential PV Analysis Methodology Find matching non-pv ESIIDs Same Weather Zone, Profile Type Stationcode, Zip Code Similar usage prior to PV installation Closest 5 with greater use and closest 5 with lower use Baseline load for each PV ESIID is average of the load for the ten matching ESIIDs Baseline load for non-match Esiids profiled based on average baseline of matched PV ESIIDs in same Weather Zone PV output = Export + Load Offset (Baseline Actual Load) Export and Actual metered interval data Baseline from matching ESIIDs 2 PUBLIC
Residential PV High 2022 PV Output Day 6.5 KW of PV output per ESIID 3 PUBLIC
Residential PV High 2021 PV Output Day 6.0 KW of PV output per ESIID 4 PUBLIC
PV Output During ERCOT 2021 Summer Peak 3.6 KW of PV output per ESIID during ERCOT peak interval 5.8 KW of peak PV output per interval 5 PUBLIC
PV Output During ERCOT 2021 Winter Peak 3.6 KW of PV output per ESIID during ERCOT peak interval 5.8 KW of peak PV output per interval 6 PUBLIC
Growth ESIIDs and Monthly Max PV Output ERCOT Competitive Residential PV Output Monthly Maximum PV Output (MW) 2014 -2022 650 130,000 600 120,000 550 110,000 500 100,000 450 90,000 400 80,000 350 70,000 ESIIDs MW 300 60,000 250 50,000 200 40,000 150 30,000 100 20,000 50 10,000 0 0 1-Jan-14 2-Jan-15 3-Jan-16 3-Jan-17 4-Jan-18 5-Jan-19 6-Jan-20 6-Jan-21 7-Jan-22 2-Nov-14 3-Nov-15 3-Nov-16 4-Nov-17 5-Nov-18 6-Nov-19 6-Nov-20 7-Nov-21 3-Mar-14 3-May-14 4-Mar-15 4-May-15 4-Mar-16 4-May-16 5-Mar-17 5-May-17 6-Mar-18 6-May-18 7-Mar-19 7-May-19 7-Mar-20 7-May-20 8-Mar-21 8-May-21 9-Mar-22 9-May-22 2-Sep-14 3-Sep-15 3-Sep-16 4-Sep-17 5-Sep-18 6-Sep-19 6-Sep-20 7-Sep-21 3-Jul-14 4-Jul-15 4-Jul-16 5-Jul-17 6-Jul-18 7-Jul-19 7-Jul-20 8-Jul-21 Peak Output August Peak Years RES PV ESIIDS 7 PUBLIC
Growth ESIIDs and Monthly Max PV Output Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 (Apr 30) ESIIDs Year Increase Percent Increase Year End Total 1,843 63.6% 4,741 1,971 41.6% 6,712 4,660 69.4% 11,372 5,114 45.0% 16,486 PV Output MW 6,416 38.9% 22,902 11,750 51.3% 34,652 20,882 60.3% 55,534 29,087 52.4% 84,621 11,797 13.9% 96,418 Year Increase Percent Increase Year End Total 6.4 7.9 19.5 87.6% 41.7 21.1 50.5% 62.8 34.2 54.5% 97.0 63.0 64.9% 160.0 111.0 69.4% 271.0 189.0 69.7% 460.0 162.7 35.4% 622.7 81.8% 14.3 55.4% 22.2 Based on 2020/21 growth, April 2023 totals: ~150,000 ESIIDs ~1,100 MW Annual Peak PV Output 8 PUBLIC
REPs with PV ESIIDs 77 Reps with 1 or more PV ESIIDs 5 Reps have 81% of PV ESIIDs 11 Reps have 90% of PV ESIIDs 25 Reps have less than 20 PV ESIIDs 138 PV ESIIDs currently de-energized 23 Active ESIIDs with NIDR meter 9 PUBLIC
Residential PV Performance by Install Year 2021 Annual PV Max Output kW / ESIID 2021 Annual PV Output kWh / ESIID 14,000 8.0 7.0 12,000 6.0 10,000 5.0 8,000 kWh kW 4.0 6,000 3.0 4,000 2.0 2,000 1.0 0.0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Install Year Install Year 2021 Annual Baseline kWh / ESIID PV output KWh increase: 5,000 to 13,000 25,000 20,000 PV output KW increase: 3 to 7 15,000 kWh 10,000 5,000 Baseline KWh decrease: 22,000 to 17,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Install Year 10 PUBLIC
Residential PV Performance by Install Year 2021 Annual Export kWh / ESIID 2021 Annual Import kWh / ESIID 9,000 22,000 8,000 20,000 7,000 6,000 18,000 5,000 kWh kWh 16,000 4,000 3,000 14,000 2,000 12,000 1,000 0 10,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Install Year Install Year Import KWh decrease: 17,000 to 11,000 2021 Annual Load Offset by PV kWh / ESIID 7,000 6,000 Export KWh increase: 3,000 to 8,000 5,000 4,000 kWh 3,000 2,000 Load Offset KWh increase: 3,000 to 5,500 1,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Install Year 11 PUBLIC
Residential PV Performance by Month Daily Average Base/Actual/Net KWh - 2021 2020 Installs - kWh / ESIID Daily Average Base/Actual/Net KWh - 2021 2009 - 2019 Installs - kWh / ESIID 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 kWh kWh 1,200 1,200 800 800 400 400 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Install Year Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Install Year Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Monthly Base KWh Actual KWh Net KWh Monthly Base KWh Actual KWh Net KWh Daily Average Daily Average PV Output/Load Offset/Export KWh - 2021 2009 - 2019 Installs - kWh / ESIID PV Output/Load Offset/Export KWh - 2021 2020 Installs - kWh / ESIID 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 kWh kWh 1,200 1,200 800 800 400 400 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Install Year Install Year PV Output KWH Load Offset KWh Export KWh PV Output KWH Load Offset KWh Export KWh 12 PUBLIC
Residential PV Performance by Install Year PV Output Annual KWh - 2012 Installs 521 ESIIDs PV Output Annual KWh - 2011 Installs 520 ESIIDs 8,000 8,000 6,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 Slope= -121 KWh/yr Slope= -170 KWh/yr 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 PV Output Export Linear (PV Output) PV Output Export Linear (PV Output) PV Output Annual KWh - 2013 Installs 1,182 ESIIDs PV Output Annual KWh - 2014 Installs 1,802 ESIIDs 8,000 8,000 6,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 Slope= -92 KWh/yr Slope= -172 KWh/yr 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 PV Output Export Linear (PV Output) PV Output Export Linear (PV Output) 13 PUBLIC
Residential PV Performance by Install Year PV Output Annual KWh - 2015 Installs 1,995 ESIIDs PV Output Annual KWh - 2016 Installs 4,794 ESIIDs 8,000 12,000 10,000 6,000 8,000 4,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Slope= -125 KWh/yr Slope= -445 KWh/yr 2,000 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 PV Output Export Linear (PV Output) PV Output Export Linear (PV Output) PV Output Annual KWh - 2017 Installs 5,260 ESIIDs PV Output Annual KWh - 2018 Installs 6,413 ESIIDs 12,000 12,000 10,000 10,000 8,000 8,000 6,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 Slope= -324 KWh/yr Slope= -316 KWh/yr 2,000 2,000 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 PV Output Export Linear (PV Output) PV Output Export Linear (PV Output) 14 PUBLIC
PV Profile Posting Received a request to post updated load profiles from PWG based on the initial PV presentation for their March 2022 meeting. ERCOT management okayed the idea of posting a file as a key document for a meeting. Will work with PWG to establish the specifics. 15 PUBLIC
Questions? ON OFF craish@ercot.com 512/248-3876 16 PUBLIC
Appendix PV Growth by Weather Zone 17 PUBLIC
Growth ESIIDs and Monthly Max PV Output by Wzone East Competitive Residential PV Output Peak Monthly (MW) Coast Competitive Residential PV Output Peak Monthly (MW) 10 1,500 150 30,000 9 1,350 135 27,000 8 1,200 120 24,000 7 1,050 105 21,000 6 900 90 18,000 ESIIDs MW ESIIDs 5 750 MW 75 15,000 4 600 60 12,000 3 450 45 9,000 2 300 30 6,000 1 150 15 3,000 0 0 0 0 4-Jan-20 1-Jan-17 2-Jan-18 3-Jan-19 4-Jan-21 5-Jan-22 3-May-17 2-Nov-17 4-May-18 3-Nov-18 5-May-19 4-Nov-19 5-May-20 4-Nov-20 6-May-21 5-Nov-21 7-May-22 3-Mar-17 4-Mar-18 5-Mar-19 5-Mar-20 6-Mar-21 7-Mar-22 3-Jul-17 2-Sep-17 4-Jul-18 3-Sep-18 5-Jul-19 4-Sep-19 5-Jul-20 4-Sep-20 6-Jul-21 5-Sep-21 1-Jan-17 2-Jan-18 3-Jan-19 4-Jan-20 4-Jan-21 5-Jan-22 2-Nov-17 3-Nov-18 4-Nov-19 4-Nov-20 5-Nov-21 3-Mar-17 3-May-17 4-Mar-18 4-May-18 5-Mar-19 5-May-19 5-Mar-20 5-May-20 6-Mar-21 6-May-21 7-Mar-22 7-May-22 3-Jul-17 2-Sep-17 4-Jul-18 3-Sep-18 5-Jul-19 4-Sep-19 5-Jul-20 4-Sep-20 6-Jul-21 5-Sep-21 Peak Output August Peak Years RES PV ESIIDS Peak Output August Peak Years RES PV ESIIDS NCent Competitive Residential PV Output Peak Monthly (MW) FWest Competitive Residential PV Output Peak Monthly (MW) 300 50,000 50 6,000 270 45,000 45 5,400 240 40,000 40 4,800 210 35,000 35 4,200 180 30,000 30 3,600 ESIIDs ESIIDs MW MW 150 25,000 25 3,000 120 20,000 20 2,400 90 15,000 15 1,800 60 10,000 10 1,200 30 5,000 5 600 0 0 0 0 1-Jan-17 2-Jan-18 3-Jan-19 4-Jan-20 4-Jan-21 5-Jan-22 3-May-17 4-May-18 5-May-19 5-May-20 6-May-21 7-May-22 2-Nov-17 3-Nov-18 4-Nov-19 4-Nov-20 5-Nov-21 3-Mar-17 3-Jul-17 4-Mar-18 4-Jul-18 5-Mar-19 5-Jul-19 5-Mar-20 5-Jul-20 6-Mar-21 6-Jul-21 7-Mar-22 2-Sep-17 3-Sep-18 4-Sep-19 4-Sep-20 5-Sep-21 1-Jan-17 2-Jan-18 3-Jan-19 4-Jan-20 4-Jan-21 5-Jan-22 3-May-17 2-Nov-17 4-May-18 3-Nov-18 5-May-19 4-Nov-19 5-May-20 4-Nov-20 6-May-21 5-Nov-21 7-May-22 3-Mar-17 3-Jul-17 4-Mar-18 4-Jul-18 5-Mar-19 5-Jul-19 5-Mar-20 5-Jul-20 6-Mar-21 6-Jul-21 7-Mar-22 2-Sep-17 3-Sep-18 4-Sep-19 4-Sep-20 5-Sep-21 Peak Output August Peak Years RES PV ESIIDS Peak Output August Peak Years RES PV ESIIDS 18 PUBLIC
Growth ESIIDs and Monthly Max PV Output by Wzone SCent Competitive Residential PV Output Peak Monthly (MW) North Competitive Residential PV Output Peak Monthly (MW) 50 7,500 15.0 2,000 45 6,750 13.5 1,800 40 6,000 12.0 1,600 35 5,250 10.5 1,400 30 4,500 9.0 1,200 ESIIDs MW ESIIDs 25 3,750 MW 7.5 1,000 20 3,000 6.0 800 15 2,250 4.5 600 10 1,500 3.0 400 5 750 1.5 200 0 0 0.0 0 1-Jan-17 2-Jan-18 3-Jan-19 4-Jan-20 4-Jan-21 5-Jan-22 3-May-17 2-Nov-17 4-May-18 3-Nov-18 5-May-19 4-Nov-19 5-May-20 4-Nov-20 6-May-21 5-Nov-21 7-May-22 3-Mar-17 4-Mar-18 5-Mar-19 5-Mar-20 6-Mar-21 7-Mar-22 3-Jul-17 2-Sep-17 4-Jul-18 3-Sep-18 5-Jul-19 4-Sep-19 5-Jul-20 4-Sep-20 6-Jul-21 5-Sep-21 1-Jan-17 2-Jan-18 3-Jan-19 4-Jan-20 4-Jan-21 5-Jan-22 3-May-17 2-Nov-17 4-May-18 3-Nov-18 5-May-19 4-Nov-19 5-May-20 4-Nov-20 6-May-21 5-Nov-21 7-May-22 3-Mar-17 4-Mar-18 5-Mar-19 5-Mar-20 6-Mar-21 7-Mar-22 3-Jul-17 2-Sep-17 4-Jul-18 3-Sep-18 5-Jul-19 4-Sep-19 5-Jul-20 4-Sep-20 6-Jul-21 5-Sep-21 Peak Output August Peak Years RES PV ESIIDS Peak Output August Peak Years RES PV ESIIDS West Competitive Residential PV Output Peak Monthly (MW) South Competitive Residential PV Output Peak Monthly (MW) 12.0 1,600 80 12,000 10.8 1,440 72 10,800 9.6 1,280 64 9,600 8.4 1,120 56 8,400 7.2 960 48 7,200 ESIIDs MW ESIIDs 6.0 800 MW 40 6,000 4.8 640 32 4,800 3.6 480 24 3,600 2.4 320 16 2,400 1.2 160 8 1,200 0.0 0 0 0 1-Jan-17 2-Jan-18 3-Jan-19 4-Jan-20 4-Jan-21 5-Jan-22 3-May-17 2-Nov-17 4-May-18 3-Nov-18 5-May-19 4-Nov-19 5-May-20 4-Nov-20 6-May-21 5-Nov-21 7-May-22 3-Mar-17 3-Jul-17 4-Mar-18 4-Jul-18 5-Mar-19 5-Jul-19 5-Mar-20 5-Jul-20 6-Mar-21 6-Jul-21 7-Mar-22 2-Sep-17 3-Sep-18 4-Sep-19 4-Sep-20 5-Sep-21 1-Jan-17 2-Jan-18 3-Jan-19 4-Jan-20 4-Jan-21 5-Jan-22 3-May-17 4-May-18 5-May-19 5-May-20 6-May-21 7-May-22 3-Mar-17 2-Nov-17 4-Mar-18 3-Nov-18 5-Mar-19 4-Nov-19 5-Mar-20 4-Nov-20 6-Mar-21 5-Nov-21 7-Mar-22 3-Jul-17 2-Sep-17 4-Jul-18 3-Sep-18 5-Jul-19 4-Sep-19 5-Jul-20 4-Sep-20 6-Jul-21 5-Sep-21 Peak Output August Peak Years RES PV ESIIDS Peak Output August Peak Years RES PV ESIIDS 19 PUBLIC
Growth ESIIDs and Monthly Max PV Output by Wzone Coast East Year 2017 2018 2019 ESIIDs 2020 2021 2022 (Apr 30) Year 2017 2018 2019 ESIIDs 2020 2021 2022 (Apr 30) Year Increase Percent Increase Year End Total 2,014 223.0% 2,917 1,522 52.2% 4,439 3,743 84.3% 8,182 PV Output MW 4,142 50.6% 12,324 7,336 59.5% 19,660 2,975 15.1% 22,635 Year Increase Percent Increase Year End Total 107.6% 99 24.6% 47 139 58.4% 377 216 57.3% 593 324 54.6% 917 284 31.0% 1,201 191 238 PV Output MW Year Increase Percent Increase Year End Total 314.1% 7 7.9 116.2% 37.6 20.2 22.6 60.2% 60.2 45.8 76.2% 106.0 34.5 32.5% 140.5 Year Increase Percent Increase Year End Total 196.0% 0.8 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.3 2.6 82.8% 17.4 23.5% 1.4 54.0% 2.2 61.1% 3.5 65.0% 5.7 44.5% 8.3 9.5 1.1 FWest NCent Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 (Apr 30) Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 (Apr 30) ESIIDs ESIIDs Year Increase Percent Increase Year End Total 281.3% 135 149 81.4% 332 PV Output MW 222 66.9% 554 2,328 420.2% 2,882 2,219 77.0% 5,101 462 9.1% 5,563 Year Increase Percent Increase Year End Total 9,818 638.4% 11,356 3,167 27.9% 14,523 4,762 32.8% 19,285 8,935 46.3% 28,220 12,769 45.2% 40,989 5,025 12.3% 46,014 183 PV Output MW Year Increase Percent Increase Year End Total 464.9% 0.8 0.8 1.2 451.2% 16.6 13.6 16.1 96.9% 32.6 7.3 Year Increase Percent Increase Year End Total 962.3% 55.1 49.9 11.3 20.4% 66.3 24.2 36.6% 90.6 43.1 47.6% 133.7 83.8 62.7% 217.5 73.5 33.8% 291.0 90.1% 1.8 69.2% 3.0 22.2% 39.9 0.9 20 PUBLIC
Growth ESIIDs and Monthly Max PV Output by Wzone North SCent Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 (Apr 30) Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 (Apr 30) ESIIDs ESIIDs Year Increase Percent Increase Year End Total 642.6% 347 133 33.2% 534 PV Output MW 165 30.9% 699 344 49.2% 1,043 660 63.3% 1,703 219 12.9% 1,922 Year Increase Percent Increase Year End Total 1,000 606.1% 1,165 845 72.5% 2,010 1,362 67.8% 3,372 1,510 44.8% 4,882 1,777 36.4% 6,659 576 8.6% 7,235 401 PV Output MW Year Increase Percent Increase Year End Total 722.0% 4.3 4.2 7.3 8.5 9.7 8.0 Year Increase Percent Increase Year End Total 977.3% 3.0 0.2 6.8% 3.5 1.2 1.9 2.5 4.5 86.5% 9.2 79.7% 16.5 51.5% 24.9 38.9% 34.6 23.0% 42.6 35.2% 4.8 39.6% 6.6 37.2% 9.1 49.5% 13.6 4.9 3.3 South West Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 (Apr 30) Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 (Apr 30) ESIIDs ESIIDs Year Increase Percent Increase Year End Total 540.7% 292 109.0% 377 1,308 180.9% 2,031 3,062 150.8% 5,093 3,846 75.5% 8,939 1,672 18.7% 10,611 Year Increase Percent Increase Year End Total 216.7% 65 85.3% 81 126 71.6% 302 221 73.2% 523 127.5% 1,190 667 340 28.6% 1,530 346 723 PV Output MW 95 176 PV Output MW Year Increase Percent Increase Year End Total 783.4% 1.5 117.2% 2.0 216.0% 11.9 8.2 173.7% 32.7 20.7 26.7 81.9% 59.4 20.0 33.6% 79.4 Year Increase Percent Increase Year End Total 234.8% 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.3 138.2% 4.0 4.1 97.6% 0.9 89.2% 1.6 77.0% 2.9 59.5% 11.0 1.7 3.8 0.4 6.9 21 PUBLIC
