Resurgence of US Economy in 2001: Expert Judgment Forecast
Explore a forecast using an expert judgment approach for the resurgence of the US economy in 2001, incorporating decision theory and the Analytic Hierarchy Process. The model predicts the resumption of growth and provides insightful results based on time periods.
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Presentation Transcript
FORECASTING THE RESURGENCE OF THE U.S. ECONOMY IN 2001: AN EXPERT JUDGMENT APPROACH
Model This is a forecast of the date for the resumption of the growth of the US economy in 2001. It uses an expert judgment approach within the framework of the decision theory, the Analytic Hierarchy Process, and its generalization to dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process.
Results Time Period Midpoint of Time Period Priority of Time Period Midpoint x Priority (in months from 0) Three months 0 + (3 0 )/2 = 1.5 .30581 .45871 Six months 3 + (6 3)/2 = 4.5 .20583 .92623 Twelve months 6 + (12 6)/2 = 9.0 .18181 1.63629 Twenty-four 12 + (24 12)/2 = 18.0 .30656 5.51808 months TOTAL 8.53932
