Revisiting Okun's Law: New Insights on Unemployment-GDP Relationship
This paper revisits Okun's Law using time series and panel data analyses, confirming a negative relationship between unemployment and GDP growth. Factors affecting Okun's coefficient variation include labor market institutions, economic structure, fiscal policy, demographic changes, and quality of jobs created.
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FAFSA Completion & Ohio s College Comeback Initiative Mike Duffey Senior Vice Chancellor Ohio Trustees Conference December 16, 2021
FAFSA Completion & Ohio s College Comeback Why do they matter?
FAFSA Completion & Ohio s College Comeback If you remember one thing about both, please remember: FAFSA completion & re-enrolling adult students both = enrollment and attainment
First up FAFSA Completion Why does it matter? How can colleges expect enrollment to trend positively when FAFSA completion is down? Without FAFSA, students are ineligible to receive Pell, OGOG, many scholarships, etc. and this drives enrollment.
FAFSA Completion Why does it matter?
FAFSA Completion Why does it matter?
FAFSA Completion 120,000 High School Seniors in Ohio Ballpark 77,000 students typically complete 64.2% approximate completion rate estimated 43,000 non-completers 55% of FAFSA completers likely qualify for Pell Average Pell grant is $4,491 43,000*0.55*4,491 = $106.2M We campaign on $80 million, but really it is closer to $100M+ annually left on the table!
FAFSA Completion $100M+ annually left on the table per cohort but students attend college for 2-6 years Pell allows 12 semesters (~6 years) Weighted average TTD (~4.7 years) This includes two-year and four-year colleges 4.7 * $100M = $470M annually in Pell grants potentially available statewide
FAFSA Completion What might $470M annually in additional Pell grants mean for Ohio two- and four-year college achievement?
FAFSA Completion The good news: IHEs are not the primary driver or responsible party for FAFSA; that s K12 and college access groups. But if IHEs are the primary non-student beneficiary, and they are what might yours do to help increase FAFSA completion in your local community?
College Comeback What is it? Declining birthrates nationally mean fewer high school seniors There are upwards of 1.5-1.6 million Ohioans with some college, but no degree (only a subset realistically might return) What is an innovative way to recruit them for a college comeback?
College Comeback What is it? ODHE issued guidance on May 12, 2021 We let you (IHEs) know that you could (if you choose) forgive student debt in exchange for re-enrollment and still get SSI.
College Comeback The big picture for student success This isn t just about debt. This is about completion! This is about attainment! This is about Ohio s economy. More degrees = a more competitive Ohio vs other states. Tens of thousands of Ohioans likely without debt but no degree too!
College Comeback And then the economics for IHEs Suppose you charge $5,000 (two- year college) or $10,000 in tuition per year (four-year college) If forgiving a $1,000 (or even $5,000) in past due balance secures this re-enrollment, you would still be way ahead, right!? Right!
College Comeback But it gets better, because debt collection isn t always terribly productive for IHEs According to some research, the OAG/IHEs typically collect approximately 7% of student debt in any given year. So $1,000 in debt might be worth just $70 to your IHE.
College Comeback There is no mandate from the State of Ohio for IHEs to consider a College Comeback program. But the Chancellor is hopeful that every public IHE in Ohio will engage in some kind of student re-enrollment effort. Some of you are already. This could include some form of College Comeback program or anything similar.
College Comeback A special thanks to some of Ohio s leaders in College Comeback programs: Cleveland State University Lorain County Community College Hocking College Cincinnati State Community College Shawnee State University and others already launched or planned.
College Comeback If you do have a College Comeback program or any kind of re-enrollment strategy . Please let us know about it! We want to learn from you and help others model your success. We do not require IHEs to tell us when you launch a program, so we appreciate a heads up. Help us celebrate your IHE s efforts!
College Comeback And we hope you joint our excitement for the coalition in northeast Ohio that is working on a regional College Comeback compact. Nearly every public IHE in this region has agreed to explore this concept with Ithaka S+R as supported by Lumina, Gates and Joyce Exciting work happening right here in Ohio that already is garnering national attention.
College Comeback My contact information: Mike Duffey Senior Vice Chancellor mduffey@highered.ohio.gov 614.352.0390 mobile The Chancellor will be quick to say: Call Mike anytime. ;)
