Revisiting SMSY Analysis and Conservation Objectives
Explore the tasks and timelines for deriving SMSY, conservation objectives, and HCR in fisheries management. Discuss potential methodology review topics and emphasize the importance of data collection and analysis for better conservation strategies.
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Presentation Transcript
SRWG Recap 1/30/25 will.satterthwaite@noaa.gov
C. Workgroup Tasks 1. Derivation of SMSY Put forward analysis based on Munsch et al. fry index Explain long-term utility of CR-based estimates, data/time needs 2. Conservation Objective Include achieving natural-area SMSYand hatchery goals in derivation Don t include river harvest in its derivation Ongoing work and discussion re: considering ecological/evolutionary/subunits May be needed for invoking de minimis anyway 3. Harvest Control Rule Largely contingent on new SMSY/conservation objective, but Report should remind Council of units issue Report should display effects of changed FMSYand a hypothetical change in SMSY Report should prompt thinking about whether de minimis zone needs updating, especially in light of likely SMSYupdates 4. Other Items, as appropriate Risk tables update from Correigh
Near-term tasks Report writing (Will first draft, then all) report to Council in June will reflect May meeting as well may need a short methodology review topic proposal statement for April Hatchery success metrics (Colin) Habitat area comparison w/ Klamath (Correigh) Viability criteria / subunits thinking (all?) Look into how this is handled for other stocks people know well Support continued/expanded collection and processing of data needed to add years to cohort reconstruction (all, where possible)
Timelines Put SMSYanalysis forward this year, describe expected time lags in getting sufficient data to do any better with S-R analyses Propose review of methods for wrapping SMSYand hatchery success into a total escapement conservation objective this year, or wait for resolution on SMSYand updating of hatchery metrics? Next step after SMSYin any case KRFC-style forecast method ready to go, matter of accumulating enough years of data to train and test Timeline for pursuit of tasks around forecasting, HCR modifications unknown pending methodology review topic selection and outcomes Suggest careful thought about possible need for prompt changes to HCR if SMSYwere to change
Potential methodology review topics (order implicitly reflects priority, but not explicitly) SMSYanalysis based on Munsch et al. fry index With explanation of current data constraints for cohort reconstruction, recommendation to revisit when worthwhile increase in data Satterthwaite and Shelton 2023 Addresses tasks related evaluating costs/benefits for alternative management measures and/or control rules (including mixed-stock constraints) Address tasks around control rule Address tasks around forecast performance Complement work on risk tables (related to assigned tasks on environmental effects) Satterthwaite 2023 (or some update/extension thereof) Address conversion between natural-area SMSYand composite conservation objective and current forecasting/harvest model tools Address evaluation of hatchery success as a driver of conservation objective Potential use of diminishing returns as proxy for SMSYand/or conservation objective
