Risk Analysis of Extreme Weather Effects on Commercial Fishing Vessels
This research project focuses on analyzing the effects of extreme weather conditions on commercial fishing vessels, aiming to improve fishing safety and mitigate incidents through interdisciplinary research. The study examines the relationships between environmental factors, fishing safety, and climate change in Canadian Atlantic Waters, utilizing various methodologies to assess impacts and provide recommendations for enhancing safety measures. The outcome includes translating research findings into practical safety factors, policy updates, and recommendations for improving commercial fishing safety.
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Presentation Transcript
RISK RISK ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF EXTREME WEATHER CONDITIONS EXTREME WEATHER CONDITIONS ON COMMERCIAL FISHING VESSEL ON COMMERCIAL FISHING VESSEL INCIDENTS INCIDENTS Sara Rezaee Dalhousie University Sept. 2015
Why Interdisciplinary Research? Data Research Problem Research Problem Data Methodology Outcome Methodology Outcome
Research problem 1. The existing relationships between extreme environment and commercial fishing safety in Canadian Atlantic Waters 2. Changes in fishing safety over time due to clime change effects in the area of interest. 3. Recommendation on how fishing safety can be improved with respect to finding from 1 and 2. Source: Perfect Storm Movie
Data Fishing Safety Time Location Fishery Type Related Fishing Traffic Vessel Size Extreme Weather Factors Wind speed Sea Surface Temperature Air Temperature Precipitation Laplacian of Pressure/ Vorticity
Methodology Do the environmental factors have any effect on the level of fishing activities (i.e. traffic amount)? Random Parameters Negative Binomial Regression Do the environmental factors have any effect on the occurrence of commercial fishing incidents? Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Regression Do the environmental factors have any effect on the fishing incident rates (incident frequencies relative to the traffic amount)? Random Parameters Negative Binomial Regression Fractional Logistic Regression Do the environmental factors have any effect on the severity level of commercial fishing incidents? Logistic Regression Support Vector Machines Does climate change have any effect on commercial fishing safety? Classification and Regression Trees
Outcome How can findings of this research be put into practice? 1. Determine safety Factors in Canada 2. Ascertain relationships between safety factors and findings of the research 3. Review Canadian policies related to safety factors from step 1. 4. Make recommendations to improve safety based on the relationships from step 2 and 3. Environmental Factors Environmental Factors Safety Factor Recommendations to Update Policies Current Policy
Publications Rezaee, S., Pelot, R.P., and Finnis, J. (2015). The effect of extratropical cyclone weather conditions on fishing vessel incidents severity level in Atlantic Canada. (Submitted for publication) Rezaee, S., Pelot, R.P., and Ghasemi, A. (2015). The Effect of Extreme Weather Conditions on Commercial Fishing Activities and Vessel Incidents in Atlantic Canada. (Submitted for publication) Rezaee, S., Seiler, C., Pelot, R.P., and Ghasemi, A. (2015). Will Commercial Fishing Be a Safe Occupation in Future? A Framework to Quantify Future Fishing Risks under Climate Change Scenarios. (Submitted for publication) Rezaee, S., Brooks, M., and Pelot., R. (2015).Review of Fishing Safety Policies in Canada with Respect to Extreme Environmental Conditions and Climate Change Effects. (Submitted for publication) Contact: Sara.Rezaee@Dal.ca
