San Diego County Issues Barometer 2022 Overview

Public Opinion Public Policy Organizations Campaigns 1987 Founded in San Diego 1988 Phonecenters established in Riverside, CA and San Diego 1990 Phonecenters established in Reno, NV and San Diego 1992 Predictive dialing installed to double interviewing capacity; CERC calls San Diego Mayor s race 1993 "The Edge" newsletter launches 1998 Qualitative focus groups introduced 2000 CERC calls San Diego Mayor s race 2003 KPBS/Competitive Edge Research Poll and annual Super Bowl poll launched 2004 CERC calls San Diego Mayor s race (x2) 2005 CERC calls San Diego Mayor s race (x2) 2006 SDIPR/CERC Opinion Barometer launched; Ballot measures paper presented at AAPOR Conference 2008 CERC calls San Diego Mayor s race; Convenes post-election summit @ USD 2009 Interviewer effects paper presented at AAPOR Conference 2010 Web-based interviewing and custom panels introduced 2012 Dial-testing introduced; CERC calls San Diego Mayor s race (x2) 2013 CERC calls San Diego Mayor s race; Business Forecast survey launched 2014 CERC calls San Diego Mayor s race 2016 CERC calls San Diego Mayor s race 2017 Phonecenter established in El Paso, TX 2018 CERC calls CA Governor s race (x2) 2019 Ballot measure wording paper presented at AAPOR Conference 2020 Incumbent viability paper accepted for presentation at AAPOR Conference John Nienstedt, MA Political Science: President Member, American Association for Public Opinion Research Insights Association SBA Entrepreneurial Success Award (2000) Pollster of the year (x7) Rachel Lawler, MA Political Science: Research Analyst Member, American Association for Public Opinion Research Ronald Zavala: Director of Operations James Iwu: Research Assistant

San Diego San Diego County Issues County Issues Barometer Barometer Oct. 2022 Oct. 2022 Amid Escalating Crime and a 20% Victimization Rate, Half Want Prevention Over Correction Blacks Feel Safest and Support Prevention, Asians Feel Less Safe

Summary Research Objective: Sample Size: Margin of Sampling Error: Confidence Level: Explore the issue of local crime n=504 4.4% 95% Sample Methodology: Simple random sampling from listed sample Jurisdiction: San Diego County Eligibility: Adult residents Interview Methods: Telephone (including cell phones), e-mail push-to-web, text push-to-web Field Dates: September 2-10, 2022 Field Facility: Competitive Edge Research, El Paso TX Project Director: John Nienstedt, Sr. Research Analyst: Rachel Lawler Research Assistant: James Iwu Page | 3

Background Page | 4

Local Crime has Escalated Since the Pandemic Hit Homicide up 3% Rape up 11% Aggravated assault up 12% Property crimes up by 9% Public safety is poised to play an important role in upcoming midterm elections However, only 3% of residents name public safety as San Diego County s most important issue Residents are more focused on homelessness, housing, and economic issues This shows those problems are so widespread and severe that crime is overshadowed, even during surging criminal activity. Page | 5

Crime Victimization Page | 6

20% Have Become Crime Victims in the Past Year That s more than a half million adults! East suburban communities have been hit hardest Elsewhere, residents older than 39 are most often victimized Among younger residents, women have been victimized three times as often as men Property crimes are the most reported incidents 26% of non-Democrats living between I-8 and SR-52 are property crime victims Identity theft is also fairly common Concentrated in Rancho Santa Fe, San Marcos, and the eastern suburbs White collar, violent, and organized crime are rarer, as is being the victim of multiple types of crime. Page | 7

A Closer Look at Our Ethnic Communities Overall victimization rates don t vary by ethnicity Blacks are more often victims of multiple crimes AAPI residents are more frequently the victims of violent crime Latino residents may be more susceptible to identity theft. Page | 8

Neighborhood Safety Page | 9

San Diegans Generally Feel Safe in their Neighborhood And almost half feel very safe Whether someone feels their neighborhood is safe depends heavily on whether they have been a crime victim 40% of victims think their area is unsafe Only a quarter say its very secure Even non-victims in low income neighborhoods tend to feel their area is safe But women there are much less likely than men to feel that way Young non-victims living in higher income areas feel the safest of all. Page | 10

A Closer Look at Our Ethnic Communities Asian residents tend to feel less secure in their neighborhood 56% of Blacks feel very safe in their neighborhood They feel more secure than the average resident Latinos are in-line with the rest of the county. Page | 11

Perceptions of Crime Levels Page | 12

Is Crime Getting Worse? Most agree crime has increased locally during the past year 30% believe it has increased a lot Only a tiny 5% believe there is less crime now People who feel they live in unsafe areas typically believe crime has risen A massive 80% who do not feel safe at all say crime has increased a lot Those who feel very safe in their neighborhoods typically don t perceive a surge, but even they don t believe crime has actually decreased Republicans are convinced crime is on the rise Residents outside the central region agree Spanish-speakers are unconvinced crime is rising. Page | 13

A Closer Look at Our Ethnic Communities Most Black residents believe crime has stayed the same during the last year They re less likely than the broader population to think it has increased Views among the Asian community and Latinos reflect those of all San Diegans. White Latino Black Asian All Increased a lot 31% 28% 17% 31% 30% Increased a little 24% 27% 18% 28% 25% Unsure/No change Crime trend in county 40% 38% 57% 37% 41% Decreased a little 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% Decreased a lot 2% 3% 3% 0% 2% Page | 14

County Crime Comparisons Page | 15

San Diego vs Other Large Cities Criminal activity may have grown, but most continue to believe San Diego County is safer than other big cities This sounds good, but there is room for improvement More residents believe the county is only a little rather than much safer Perceptions of neighborhood safety again drive the comparison to other cities It s also much more common for people who feel crime has increased to say the county is less secure than other big cities But even a slim majority of them say San Diego is safer Young Democrats tend to hold much more upbeat safety comparisons Residents in affluent areas also tend to think San Diego is safer than elsewhere. Page | 16

A Closer Look at Our Ethnic Communities The Black community more often thinks San Diego is much safer than other big cities They rarely believe San Diego is much less safe Opinions among Asians and Latinos are like those of the wider populace. Page | 17

Anti-Crime Proposals Page | 18

What to do About Crime? Additional funding for mental health programs is at the top of the list Democrats are big proponents, but Republicans give it short shrift 16% favor stricter enforcement of laws Those who feel crime has increased a lot prioritize stricter enforcement and harsher punishment They rarely see mental health programs as the path to safety Republicans also want more enforcement Another 16% want more education funding Residents < 45 are much fonder of this, but more education gets almost no support from those 55+ 13% want more policing That s the choice of crime victims themselves Longer sentences are preferred by 11%, and much more popular with Republicans and the elderly Countywide, only 4% want more drones and cameras In Chula Vista, which has adopted this approach to deal with crime, 16% see this as a solution Just 1% take a defund the police position. Page | 19

A Closer Look at Our Ethnic Communities Blacks are huge proponents of more funding for mental health programs They are far less supportive of more policing and stricter enforcement Generally want a preventative approach than correctional measures Opinions among Asians and Latinos are like those of the countywide population. Page | 20

Thank You! Page | 21

Public Opinion Public Policy Organizations Campaigns 1987 Founded in San Diego 1988 Phonecenters established in Riverside, CA and San Diego 1990 Phonecenters established in Reno, NV and San Diego 1992 Predictive dialing installed to double interviewing capacity; CERC calls San Diego Mayor s race 1993 "The Edge" newsletter launches 1998 Qualitative focus groups introduced 2000 CERC calls San Diego Mayor s race 2003 KPBS/Competitive Edge Research Poll and annual Super Bowl poll launched 2004 CERC calls San Diego Mayor s race (x2) 2005 CERC calls San Diego Mayor s race (x2) 2006 SDIPR/CERC Opinion Barometer launched; Ballot measures paper presented at AAPOR Conference 2008 CERC calls San Diego Mayor s race; Convenes post-election summit @ USD 2009 Interviewer effects paper presented at AAPOR Conference 2010 Web-based interviewing and custom panels introduced 2012 Dial-testing introduced; CERC calls San Diego Mayor s race (x2) 2013 CERC calls San Diego Mayor s race; Business Forecast survey launched 2014 CERC calls San Diego Mayor s race 2016 CERC calls San Diego Mayor s race 2017 Phonecenter established in El Paso, TX 2018 CERC calls CA Governor s race (x2) 2019 Ballot measure wording paper presented at AAPOR Conference 2020 Incumbent viability paper accepted for presentation at AAPOR Conference John Nienstedt, MA Political Science: President Member, American Association for Public Opinion Research Insights Association SBA Entrepreneurial Success Award (2000) Pollster of the year (x7) Rachel Lawler, MA Political Science: Research Analyst Member, American Association for Public Opinion Research Ronald Zavala: Director of Operations James Iwu: Research Assistant