Scaling Exercise and Recommendations for COE Analysis
This document provides detailed insights into COE scaling exercise and recommendations, with a focus on efficiency improvements and cost optimization strategies for a confidential company project. Key areas covered include nameplate ratings, rotor diameter, control methods, and cost contributions by different operational areas.
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COE Scaling Exercise and Recommendations Tyler Mayer 05/03/13 Company Confidential and Proprietary
COE vs. Nameplate Rating Name Plate Rating kW 2400 1500 1500 1700 1050 800 500 360 Florida Current /kWh 10.4 10.7 14.7 12.1 12.7 13.7 14.9 16.5 % Difference % - 3% 41% 16% 22% 31% 44% 58% Rotor Diameter m 45.5 34.9 34.9 35.9 28.6 24.9 19.8 16.7 Control Strategy - Ideal PDC* Ideal PDC Current Design Stall** Stall Stall Stall Stall Input Pump # 2X CBM 6000 CBM 6000 CBM 6000 2X CBM 6000 CBM 6000 CBM 4000 CBM 2000 CBM CBP 1200 18.0 Current Design @ 1.6 m/s 16.0 CBM 6000 Options 14.0 Required PDC Optimization 12.0 Stall Control (cut out @ 2.0 m/s) 10.0 /kWh 8.0 6.0 Florida Target I-PDC @ 1.6 m/s 4.0 Stall Control Ideal PDC 2.0 Current PDC Name Plate Rating (kW) 0.0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 * Ideal PDC COE does not include additional component cost (if required) to achieve anticipated operation ** Stall Control COE does include any cost reduction due to simplfied mooring, pressure vessel or seals Company Confidential and Proprietary 1
COE Options @ CBM 6000 Name Plate Rating Florida Current % Difference Rotor Diameter kW /kWh 1050 12.6 1500 10.7 1500 14.9 2000 13.4 Control Method - Stall 2.0 Ideal PDC 1.6 Current Design 1.6 Current PDC 1.8 Input Pump # CBM 6000 CBM 6000 CBM 6000 CBM 6000 % m 21% 3% 43% 29% 28.6 34.9 34.9 32.3 16.0 Current Design @ 1.6 14.0 12.0 10.0 /kWh Stall Control (cut out @ 2.0 m/s) 8.0 6.0 Florida Target C-PDC @ 1.8 m/s 4.0 I-PDC @ 1.6 m/s Stall 2.0 2.0 0.0 0 500 1000 Name Plate Rating (kW) 1500 2000 2500 Company Confidential and Proprietary 2
COE Contribution by Area Name Plate Rating kW 2400 1700 1050 800 500 360 OPEX Platform Drivetrain Mooring Grid Connect Installation /kWh 2.8 3.6 4.1 4.9 5.4 6.2 /kWh 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 /kWh 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 /kWh 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 /kWh 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.4 /kWh 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.2 7.0 OPEX Installation 6.0 Grid Connect Mooring Drivetrain 5.0 Platform COE ( /kWh) 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 kW Rating 0.0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Company Confidential and Proprietary 3
OPEX Scaling 5 year Maintenance The current estimation of installation cost is a fixed percentage of the CAPEX for the drivetrain and platform. 2400 Number of C-Planes, # 42 Farm Size, MW 100 Installation cost ($/C-Plane): $950,000 Parts Refurbisment Mooring Refurbisment $150,120 Hydraulic System Overhaul (seals, etc.) $182,788 Hydraulic Oil and Filters $13,000 Cleaning and Painting $19,600 Dissassebly and Reassembly $338,772 Misc Parts Replacement (5%) $338,772 1700 59 100 $950,000 1050 96 100 $730,000 800 134 100 500 200 100 360 277 100 Comments $730,000 $510,000 $510,000 From Install Cost $136,213 $154,394 $13,000 $19,600 $247,738 $247,738 $108,515 $84,215 $6,500 $15,680 $144,903 $144,903 $94,477 $63,171 $4,276 $13,067 $105,223 $105,223 $75,126 $44,606 $2,378 $6,969 $66,881 $66,881 $63,364 $30,083 $1,331 $3,252 $44,556 $44,556 20% Mooring Cost 20% Pump Cost BOM Cost Estimated and Scaled on Nacelle Volume Assembly Cost Misc 5% of BOM Parts Replacement 5yr Overhaul Total Cost ($/C-Plane/ 5yr) Yearly Cost ($/C-Plane/yr) Tax Adjusted Cost 1,993,051 398,610 239,166 1,768,683 353,737 212,242 1,234,716 246,943 148,166 1,115,436 223,087 133,852 772,840 154,568 92,741 697,142 139,428 83,657 Occurs every 5 years Divide by 5 40% Tax Rate Failure cost The current estimation of installation cost is a fixed percentage of the CAPEX for the drivetrain and platform. 2400 Remove and Replace [$] $950,000 Yearly Failure Rate 6.0% Number of Failures per year, #/yr 2.5 Average Cost of Failure $1,475,234 Number of days OOS 7.0 Liquidated Damages $43,546 1700 $950,000 6.0% 3.5 $1,102,588 7.0 $30,845 1050 $950,000 6.0% 5.8 $638,135 7.0 $19,051 800 500 360 $950,000 6.0% 8.0 $460,638 7.0 $14,515 $712,500 6.0% 12.0 $293,004 10.5 $13,608 $475,000 6.0% 16.6 $193,327 14.0 $13,064 2 days all ships to remove and install Constant failure rate Failure rate * units per farm 1/2 BOM cost of single power pod Total LRC cost ($/farm/yr) LRC Cost ($/C-Plane/yr) $6,213,500 $144,500 $7,366,078 $124,849 $9,245,750 $11,443,819 $12,213,958 $96,310 $85,402 $11,310,477 $40,832 $61,070 Asssumed 144k baseline to determine failure rate $383,666 2.8 $337,091 3.6 $244,476 4.1 $219,254 4.9 $153,811 5.4 $124,489 6.2 Total OPEX ($/C-Plane/yr) Total OPEX COE ( /kWh) 2.4 MW LRC of 144k is assumed from previous analysis and used to estimate failure rate Assumes same architecture, design practice and failure rates across configurations Requires detailed analysis of O&M and LRC to estimate true costs/ COE impact Scaling is accurate for comparison. Company Confidential and Proprietary 4
Failure LRC Modeling 2400 Component Cost Total Repair Cost 42 - 0.200 $783,592 0.100 $783,592 0.100 $2,950,468 0.100 $874,500 0.400 $1,014,526 0.400 $113,600 0.400 $2,950,468 0.400 $113,600 0.400 $1,014,526 0.400 $589,395 0.100 $750,600 0.100 $1,185,609 3.097 $6,069,000 $144,500 1700 Component Cost Total Repair Cost 59 - 0.281 $471,903 0.140 $471,903 0.140 $2,205,177 0.140 $544,410 0.561 $865,556 0.561 $80,467 0.561 $2,205,177 0.561 $80,467 0.561 $865,556 0.561 $337,896 0.140 $681,066 0.140 $879,214 4.351 $7,426,542 $125,874 Component kW Rating # of Turbines Average Failures/ Yr Average Failures/ Yr Average Failures/ Yr Average Failures/ Yr Average Failures/ Yr Average Failures/ Yr Average Failures/ Yr Average Failures/ Yr Average Failures/ Yr Average Failures/ Yr - - - $1,733,592 $1,733,592 $3,900,468 $1,824,500 $1,964,526 $1,063,600 $3,900,468 $1,063,600 $1,964,526 $1,539,395 $1,700,600 $2,135,609 $1,421,903 $1,421,903 $3,155,177 $1,494,410 $1,815,556 $1,030,467 $3,155,177 $1,030,467 $1,815,556 $1,287,896 $1,631,066 $1,829,214 Blades Rotor Hubs Nacelle Main Wing and Faring Pump Electrical Seals Generator Hydraulic System Bearings Mooring Lines & Attachments Average Failures/ Yr Grid Connect Average Failures/ Yr Total Yearly Failures Total Yearly Cost Cost /Year/Turbine Preliminary analysis used only to validate LRC scaling method Needs full review of failure frequency and costs Company Confidential and Proprietary 5
Scaling Exercise Recommendations Scaling exercise shows that a smaller rated machine may is commercially viable. Recommendation is a single CBM 6000 drivetrain. This architecture provides: Configuration similarity to higher ratings Bearings, Shafts, Seals and Nacelle design can accommodate higher ratings Room to grow The single 6000 architecture can increase capacity with the addition of a stacked pump. Margin to learn A smaller design will allow headroom for unanticipated loading Lower cost A smaller machine will be easier and cheaper to manufacture a prototype. Company Confidential and Proprietary 6
Prototype Cost Estimates C-Plane Prototype Cost Estimate Total CAPEX Installed Addititional prototype cost Blade Molds Install Ship Mobilization Permitting Estimated Prototype cost Development Engineering Total Development Spend Rating $/kw Protype Cost $/kw Project Development QTY 2400 Cost $8,969,303 $1,505,207 $5,000,000 $1,580,000 $1,500,000 $18,554,510 $13,988,576 $15,000,000 $15,000,000 $12,000,000 $10,000,000 $33,554,510 $28,988,576 $21,960,908 $18,442,491 $14,641,603 $13,749,329 2400 1600 1000 $7,731 $8,743 $9,961 $13,981 $18,118 $21,961 1600 Cost $6,831,452 $1,105,224 $2,971,901 $1,580,000 $1,500,000 1000 Cost $4,332,489 $676,238 $1,872,180 $1,580,000 $1,500,000 $9,960,908 750 Cost $3,427,755 $505,995 $1,428,741 $1,580,000 $1,500,000 $8,442,491 500 Cost $2,322,420 $339,133 $900,050 $1,580,000 $1,500,000 $6,641,603 $8,000,000 350 Cost $1,790,214 $238,837 20% additional BOM Cost $640,278 Scaled on Rotor Area $1,580,000 $1,500,000 $5,749,329 $8,000,000 Scaling Factor 10% Grid Connect Cost From quote Estimated Estimated 750 500 350 $11,257 $24,590 $13,283 $29,283 $16,427 $39,284 Company Confidential and Proprietary 7
Island Nation Estimate Finding COE Targets Updated: 12-Oct-11 Current breakdown COE % of CAPEX Value % Change Unit (cents/kWh) 32.25 COE % 100.0% Total k$ k$ k$ k$ k$ k$ CAPEX (without margin) Platform Drivetrain Mooring lines & attachments Grid connect Misc (assembly & installation) 2,334 342 593 309 458 631 13% 0% 18% 0% 27% 13% 16.00 2.35 4.07 2.12 3.14 4.33 49.6% 7% 13% 7% 10% 13% 100% 15% 25% 13% 20% 27% Gross margin (28%) 484 8% k$ 3.32 10.3% 28% k$ / yr O&M 151 23% 12.93 40.1% 25.1% MWh / yr AEP_net 1,167 -40% Assumes 20 - 350 kW Unit Site. Estimated variable flow Indonesian resource (limited data). 40% AEP loss due to variable resource. 20% increase in drivetrain cost to handle increased torque of variable flow. Increase in Grid Connect, Installation and O&M due to economies of scale. Company Confidential and Proprietary 8
DOE FOA Implications FOA Topic 2 Proposal ($3m) Develop and Test Fully Integrated CBM 6000 drivetrain at NREL System control and dynamics Off axis loading performance Include Seawater Bearings & Seals with pressure housing Bearing wear performance under load Seal performance under pressure and deflection In collaboration with: Tom Foley Hydraulic System Design - ($150k) BEW Electrical System Design - ($150k) Ettem Seal Design and Supply - ($350k) University of Florida - Bearing Design - ($250k) Bosch Rexroth Hydraulic System Supply - ($1m) NREL - Test Stand and Support - ($800k) Company Confidential and Proprietary 9
