sPHENIX Estimate at Completion MIE and I&F from September 2021 Progress Data
EAC is an estimate of the total project spending, combining MIE and I&F. EAC = ETC + ACWP. Elements include BCWR, risk estimates, known additions, and adjustments for unpaid invoices. Monthly updates maintain stability.
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sPHENIX Estimate At Completion MIE and I&F from September 2021 Progress Data Glenn Young October 28, 2021 BNL 1 sPHENIX PMG Meeting October 28, 2021
Elements Needed for the EAC The Estimate at Completion, EAC, is an estimate of the total spending of the project We separate the MIE and the I&F for the estimate shown here EAC = ETC + ACWP ETC is Estimate to Complete i.e. estimated cost of everything we have not yet paid for, whether it is incomplete work in P6, or an unpaid invoice, or necessary work that is outside the baseline ACWP is Actual Cost of Work Performed and is updated monthly via P6 and COBRA, and corresponds e.g. to invoices & wages paid If things go well, the EAC is stable from month to month 2 sPHENIX PMG Meeting October 28, 2021
Elements in the ETC We include in the ETC: BCWR the Budgeted Cost of Work Remaining Known must-have Additions outside the P6 scope Expected Value of remaining Risk Elements Estimate Uncertainty (EU) for remaining work Adjustment for unpaid invoices and known cost increases 3 sPHENIX PMG Meeting October 28, 2021
BCWR The BCWR is developed directly from P6 EVMS data after each month s status reporting It is a sum over incomplete activities of the budgeted cost for that activity times the unfinished percentage of that activity The first two tabs of the spreadsheet on the Indico 12957 page cover this We have been reporting this on the CPR spreadsheets since sPHENIX was baselined It decreases each month if we are progressing 4 sPHENIX PMG Meeting October 28, 2021
Known Additions We have two known must-have additions in the MIE JACK board needed as an ancillary board for the TPC FEE Diffuse & Line Laser support items optics, fiber links, controls We have presently no known additions for the I&F 5 sPHENIX PMG Meeting October 28, 2021
Expected Value of Risk Elements We take these from the two reviews held earlier this year, updated through July MIE review in July (Risk Table was updated through May 2021) I&F review in April (Risk Table was updated through February 2021) Risk Elements are updated monthly by the CAMs and slowly are retired as activities are completed 6 sPHENIX PMG Meeting October 28, 2021
Estimate Uncertainty EU is updated each month as activities are completed and as items move from estimate to ordered status For the MIE we have mostly M&S elements, with the labor being handled as LOE For the I&F we are including the EU only for the M&S items EU will trend towards zero as work remaining trends towards zero 7 sPHENIX PMG Meeting October 28, 2021
Adjustments We keep a table of adjustments that have to be made to the ETC. These total 2-3% of the EAC. We use the monthly Budget and Expenses report as input The B&E report groups items by the Account #, which corresponds to WBS # Every active order with non-zero commitment is included Some of these are due to unpaid invoices which have not been accrued an issue in particular for university contracts These are pursued each month; some vendors are more responsive than others Some are due to contracts which were placed well past the scheduled date in P6 and have cost changes (increases, mostly) In these cases we did not do a PCR to adjust the P6 baseline Some are due to items already on order which were not included in the P6 baseline sPHENIX PMG Meeting 8 October 28, 2021
Have Chosen Not to Use Formulae Have not used formulae, e.g. involving SPI and CPI, to project the ETC by modifying the BCWR based on prior performance Instead add up the cost of known needed procurement.s using best price information c.f diffuse lasers for MIE The MIE involves only M&S and fixed amounts of labor The apparent positive CV mostly derives from late invoices that have not been accrued. Actual CPI is likely close to 1.0 The I&F does involve labor and M&S both. CV is positive for labor, so again taking CPI=1.0 is conservative The Infrastructure WBS 2.4 has CPI=0.60 which traces chiefly to overruns on concrete track reinforcement and beam-pipe refurbishment 9 sPHENIX PMG Meeting October 28, 2021
Fraction of BCWR M&S To-Be-Ordered MIE BCWR is $3.426M as of September 2021 (13% of $27M total) 14% of this BCWR consists of Baseline M&S orders yet to be placed I&F BCWR is $10.859M as of September 2021 (33% of $33.4M total) Of this BCWR, some $4.445M is for M&S (13% of $33.4M total) 23% of this latter amount consists of Baseline M&S orders yet to be placed 10 sPHENIX PMG Meeting October 28, 2021
EAC for MIE BCWR from P6 from September 2021 3,245,503 Additions JACK board for TPC FEE Diffuse & Line Laser Support Optics and Controls Sum of known additions above $160,000 $230,000 $390,000 BCWR + Additions $3,635,503 Adjustments Adjust for Risk Events Expected Value (updated from May MIE review) Adjust for Estimate Uncertainty (for September MIE total) Adjust for unpaid invoices and known cost growth $425,000 $308,954 $833,071 ETC = BCWR+Additions+Adjustments ACWP from September 2021 EAC = ETC + ACWP $5,202,528 $21,187,470 $26,389,998 TOTAL Budget As-Yet unassigned MIE Contingency $27,000,000 $610,002 As-Yet unassigned MIE Contingency w/o Risk or EU $1,343,956 11 sPHENIX PMG Meeting October 28, 2021
EAC for I&F BCWR from P6 from September 2021 $10,859,367 Additions Sum of known additions above $0 BCWR + Additions $10,859,367 Adjustments Adjust for Risk Events Expected Value (adjust April I&F Review) Adjust for Estimate Uncertainty for M&S (use September total) Adjust for unpaid invoices and known cost growth $107,012 $477,933 $635,469 ETC = BCWR+Additions+Adjustments ACWP from September 2021 EAC = ETC + ACWP $12,079,780 $21,143,800 $33,223,580 TOTAL Budget As-Yet unassigned Cat C Contingency $33,400,000 $176,420 As-Yet unassigned Cat C Contingency w/o Risk or EU $761,365 12 sPHENIX PMG Meeting October 28, 2021
Tracking EAC for MIE MIE EAC TRACKING BCWR from P6 Jul-21 $4,596,076 Aug-21 $4,060,463 Sep-21 $3,245,503 Additions JACK board for TPC FEE (verbal estimate)(reduce by $40K for AVNET FPGAs) Laser Additions Sum of known additions above $160,000 $170,000 $330,000 $160,000 $170,000 $330,000 $160,000 $230,000 $390,000 BCWR + Additions $4,926,076 $4,390,463 $3,635,503 Adjustments Adjust for Risk Events Expected Value (updated from May MIE review total) Adjust for Estimate Uncertainty Adjust for unpaid invoices and known cost growth Adjust for other anticipated but not-yet-realized overruns ETC = BCWR + Additions + Adjustments ACWP from CPReport EAC = ETC + ACWP $425,000 $412,018 $869,110 $425,000 $358,177 $885,367 $425,000 $308,954 $833,071 $6,632,204 $19,664,212 $26,296,416 $6,059,007 $20,099,791 $26,158,798 $5,202,528 $21,187,470 $26,389,998 TOTAL Budget As-Yet unassigned Cat A Contingency $27,000,000 $703,584 $27,000,000 $841,202 $27,000,000 $610,002 As-Yet unassigned Cat A Contingency w/o Risk or EU $1,540,602 $1,624,379 $1,343,956 Yet-to-be-Placed Procurements MIE $1,243,278 $872,506 $443,223 13 sPHENIX PMG Meeting October 28, 2021
Tracking EAC for I&F Cat-C I&F EAC TRACKING BCWR from P6 BCWR - M&S Only Additions Jul-21 $11,895,325 $4,797,820 Aug-21 $11,616,427 $4,747,625 Sep-21 $10,859,367 $4,445,577 Sum of known additions above $0 $0 $0 BCWR + Additions $11,895,325 $11,616,427 $10,859,367 Adjustments Adjust for Risk Events Expected Value (updated from April review total) Adjust for Estimate Uncertainty Adjust for unpaid invoices and known cost growth Adjust for other anticipated but not-yet-realized overruns ETC = BCWR + Additions + Adjustments ACWP from CPReport EAC = ETC + ACWP $107,012 $519,237 $571,716 $107,012 $504,293 $599,614 $107,012 $477,933 635,469 $13,093,290 $19,507,182 $32,600,472 $12,827,346 $20,065,970 $32,893,316 $12,079,781 $21,143,800 $33,223,581 TOTAL Budget As-Yet unassigned Cat-C Contingency $33,400,000 $799,528 $33,400,000 $506,684 $33,400,000 $176,419 As-Yet unassigned Cat-C Contingency w/o Risk or EU $1,425,777 $1,117,989 $761,364 Yet-to-be-Placed Procurements Cat-C $1,207,348 $1,070,083 $1,013,635 14 sPHENIX PMG Meeting October 28, 2021
MIE M&S Items to Be Ordered MIE Remaining M&S Items to be Procured - October 2021 Activity ID Activity Name Baseline Cost Forecast Start Forecast Finish 160,000 95,594 26-Jan-22 70,000 160,000 Procure TPC M-JACK Board Procure TPC Felix Optical Fiber Harneses Procure TPC Fiber Optics (Diffuse Lasers) Procure TPC Lightpipe/motors/controls (Line Lasers) S147370 1-Feb-22 S255900 S256700 S258700 Procure DAQ Production Boards DCM2 Procure DAQ Production Crates Procure DAQ Production jackboard Slow control computers 123,933 75,769 19,956 1-Feb-22 10-Jan-22 1-Dec-21 7-Feb-22 14-Jan-22 7-Dec-21 S267600 GL1 System Production 33,327 17-Dec-21 22-Dec-21 S270300 Timing System Production 49,250 787,829 17-Dec-21 23-Dec-21 15 sPHENIX PMG Meeting October 28, 2021
I&F M&S Items to Be Ordered I&F Remaining M&S Items to be Procured - October 2021 Activity ID S308627 Activity Name Baseline Cost Forecast Start Forecast Finish $73,123 30-Sep-21 Place contract with CERN for Mapping 28-Feb-22 S314650 S317940 S317950 S317960 S317970 S317990 CC Seismic Restraints - M&S Procure TPC Supports - M&S Procure INTT Supports - M&S Procure MVTX Supports - M&S Procure MBD Supports - M&S Procure Beampipe Supports - M&S $146,246 $58,034 $58,034 $58,034 $11,607 $29,017 15-Apr-22 10-Feb-22 2-Feb-22 24-Jan-22 11-Feb-22 31-Jan-22 21-Apr-22 7-Apr-22 30-Mar-22 21-Mar-22 11-Mar-22 28-Feb-22 S329100 S330355 S332500 S332770 S333600 S335800 S336900 S339500 S341700 S342800 Procure Line Electric Power Distribution Components - M&S Procure Fiber Optics Trunk Cables and Accessories - M&S Procure Detector Cooling Services Systems Components M&S Procure Detector Gas Services Systems Components - M&S Procure Detector Safety Subsystems Components - M&S Procure Rack Room Modifications Components - M&S Procure Control Room and Offices Modifications Components - M&S Procure IR HVAC Components - M&S Procure IR/AH Safety Subsystems Components - M&S Procure Assembly Hall Modifications Components - M&S $59,195 $26,046 $62,419 $63,930 $14,156 $23,678 $59,195 $40,624 $37,142 $11,607 27-Oct-21 9-Jun-22 15-Feb-22 29-Mar-22 10-Feb-22 12-Jan-22 11-Feb-22 16-Dec-21 15-Feb-22 14-Feb-22 24-Nov-21 1-Sep-22 22-Jun-22 15-Sep-22 5-May-22 7-Apr-22 25-Mar-22 15-Mar-22 10-May-22 21-Jun-22 S359800 S362200 S364500 S367900 Fabricate/Procure TPC Installation Tooling/Fixtures - M&S Fabricate/Procure INTT Installation Tooling/Fixtures - M&S Fabricate/Procure MVTX Installation Tooling/Fixtures - M&S Fabricate/Procure Min Bias Installation Tooling/Fixtures - M&S $34,821 $34,821 $35,517 $11,607 $948,853 1-Oct-21 1-Oct-21 1-Nov-21 1-Oct-21 14-Feb-22 30-Dec-21 31-Jan-22 30-Dec-21 16 sPHENIX PMG Meeting October 28, 2021
