Spread of Aedes Mosquitos Using Fibonacci Weighting Strategy
Explore the application of Fibonacci numbers to model the spread of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitos, impacting public health. The approach involves a mesh framework and probability estimation to predict mosquito collections, with a weighting strategy based on Fibonacci numbers governing the analysis. Examples and acknowledgements from CDC experts are included in this comprehensive study.
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Presentation Transcript
Agenda Background/Method Description Approach: Mesh/Fibonacci Weighting Examples Acknowledgements 2 2/24/2019 http://www.swarmaedesmodel.com/
Background/Model Description Spread of Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus impacts Public Health Gradual spread could be modeled as many iterations Factors considered: Number of sites where Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus were Collected in the last two seasons Surrounding counties could only increase probability Weighting strategy based on Fibonacci numbers 3 2/24/2020 http://www.swarmaedesmodel.com/
Approach: Mesh Approach: Probability of Aedes being collected in this year, in month x, in this county can be estimated from the probability of Aedes being collected as follows: This year, month x-1. x-2, etc. (Not Available) Last year, months x-1, x, x+1 Two years ago, month x Surrounding Counties Probability (Only increased) 4 2/24/2020 http://www.swarmaedesmodel.com/
Weighting Strategy Based on Fibonacci Numbers Governs a lot of things in nature; perhaps the spread of Aedes mosquitos Fn/Fn-1 Golden Ratio 1.618 1/ = -1 0.618 Weight for Surrounding Counties Score 2 = 1- 0.382 Weight for Just County Score Fn-3/(Fn-3+Fn-2+Fn-1+Fn) .106 Weight for 24 months ago Fn-2/(Fn-3+Fn-2+Fn-1+Fn) .171 Weight for 13 months ago Fn-1/(Fn-3+Fn-2+Fn-1+Fn) .276 Weight for 11 months ago Fn/(Fn-3+Fn-2+Fn-1+Fn) .447 Weight for 12 months ago 5 2/24/2020 http://www.swarmaedesmodel.com/
Examples 6 2/24/2020 http://www.swarmaedesmodel.com/
Acknowledgements People responsible for Aedes collections CDC Division of Vector-Borne Diseases Michael Johansson, PhD Mimi Huynh, MPH 7 2/24/2020 http://www.swarmaedesmodel.com/
