Spring 2019 Economic Data Charts and Analysis
Explore a collection of informative data charts covering topics such as unemployment, vacancies, household financial fragility, saving rates, real household demand, and business investments in the spring of 2019. Gain insights into trends and patterns in various economic indicators.
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Presentation Transcript
Data Charts Econ 448W Spring, 2019
Unemployment and Vacancies 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Vacancy Rate Unemployment Rate
Vacancy Rate - Selected Industries 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Construction Manufacturing Education/Health
Beveridge Curve 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 Vacancy Rate 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 Unemployment Rate
Rising Household Financial Fragility: Household Debt to Disposable Income 180.0% 160.0% 140.0% 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 Household Adjusted NIPA Personal Sector
Rising HH Fragility: Saving Rates 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 NIPA Saving Rate Adj. Gross Household Saving Rate Adj. Financial Saving Rate
Real Household Demand (2009 $) 12000 Trend Actual 2013 11.6% 2014 12.3% 2015 13.2% 2016 14.1% 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Household Demand 2000-2006 Trend
Real Business Investment & Real Residential Construction 3000.000 2500.000 2000.000 Residential Investment Peak. 2005:3 Trough 2010:3 -59% 2018:4 -33% 1500.000 1000.000 500.000 0.000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real Business Invst. Real Residential Construction Bus. Invst. Trend
Net Exports as Share of GDP 0.0% 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% Goods Goods & Services
Real GDP Per Capita Cycle Comparisons (Peak to Peak, *current cycle incomplete) Peak Dates Total Growth Growth per Year Number of Qtrs. 11.7% 22 1973:2 to 1978:4 2.0% 25.0% 46 1978:4 to 1990:2 2.0% 24.1% 40 1990:2 to 2000:2 2.2% 11.5% 30 2000:2 to 2007:4 1.5% 10.0% 44 2007:4 to 2018:4* 0.9% 14
Current and Vintage Output Gap (Based on 2007:2 CBO Potential GDP Estimates) (Vintage values ratio-adjusted from mid 2000s value of 1.27) 2.00% 0.00% 2007-04-01 2007-08-01 2007-12-01 2008-04-01 2008-08-01 2008-12-01 2009-04-01 2009-08-01 2009-12-01 2010-04-01 2010-08-01 2010-12-01 2011-04-01 2011-08-01 2011-12-01 2012-04-01 2012-08-01 2012-12-01 2013-04-01 2013-08-01 2013-12-01 2014-04-01 2014-08-01 2014-12-01 2015-04-01 2015-08-01 2015-12-01 2016-04-01 2016-08-01 2016-12-01 2017-04-01 2017-08-01 -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% -10.00% -12.00% -14.00% Gap with Current Y* Gap with Growth-Adj Vintage Y*
Long-Term Growth: What Defines a Regime? 4.00% - 10-year rolling per capita real GDP growth - Regime shift when statistic 0.5 percentage points from previous median for 10 consecutive qtrs. 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% Base year now after pre-GR peak 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% Close to shift in 1983 (7 weak quarters) But got sharp recovery 0.50% 0.00% 1957 1958 1959 1960 1962 1963 1964 1965 1967 1968 1969 1970 1972 1973 1974 1975 1977 1978 1979 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1987 1988 1989 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2018 10-Year Ann. Growth Regime Averages
Weak Household Spending and the Stagnant Recovery (Based on Cynamon-Fazzari Review of Income & Wealth, 2017) Real Household Demand Profiles (Population Adjusted) 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0 Index Peak=100 110.0 1973-1978 105.0 1978-1989 1989-2000 100.0 2000-2006 2006-2016 95.0 90.0 Current cycle has not recovered peak value after 10 years! 85.0 80.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Years Since Peak
Top Income Shares (5%) (Pre-tax, including realized capital gains World Top Incomes database) Top 5% 45 40 35 30 25 Increase: 16 Percentage points 20 15 Top 5% 20
Unstable Financial Dynamics Concentrated in Middle Class (Debt to Income Ratio by Income Group) 200% 175% 150% 125% 100% 75% 50% 25% Bottom 95% Top 5% 21
Who Cut Back in the Crisis? (Consumption to Disposable Income by Income Group) 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Consumption Rate 95% Consumption Rate 5% Outlay Rate 95% Outlay Rate 5%
Gov. Deficits & Real Interest Rates 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% -10.00% -12.00% Fed Surplus (Deficit) / GDP Real 10-Year T Bond Rate
US Federal Debt (Held by Public) / GDP FRED Graph
