Statistical Inference and Management Decisions in Conservation Research
Explore the intersection of statistical inference and management decisions in conservation research through studies on pricing, sample size optimization, chemotherapy decisions, ethical imperatives, and spatio-temporal confounders.
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Presentation Transcript
Statistical inference and management decisions Helene H Thygesen Department of Conservation New Zealand
Price and cost components ($/unit) How much are consumers willing to pay extra for cornflakes in a box? $0.40 $0.30 $0.20 $0.10 $0.00 -$0.10 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 -$0.20 Cost of box Premium of box Relative profit of box
Optimize sample size for cornflakes box premium survey 180 160 Study cost ($1000) Loss components ($1000) 140 Mistake probability (%) 120 Probability of mistake (%) 100 80 Expected cost of mistake ($1000) Total loss ($1000) 60 40 20 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Sample size
Chemotherapy after surgery? Weak immune response against the tumour? Chemotherapy is needed Strong immune response against the tumour? Chemotherapy damages the immune system so better to leave the patient in peace
5 4.5 Expected lifespan post surgery (years) after adjusting for 4 3.5 confounders 3 Recommend chemo Recommend no chemo 2.5 Chemotherapy No Chemotherapy 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 Immune response against tumor
Aim of the study I have some data. Can you calculate a p-value for me? Ehh what is your research question? I don t know but my supervisor told me that I need to present a p-value, otherwise it isn t real science
Quantification of ethical imperatives To calculate the utility function, I need to know the monetary value of a gained patient life year Can t do that! OK, let s say we have a fixed budget then. How many years of disability equals one life year? Can t do that Hmmm .. imagine it was your own child who had a choice between a 30% risk of permanent disability and a 10% risk of death Now we are talking!
Spatio- temporal confounders Management options Ultimate outcomes Threats
Department of Conservation: Benefits of pest management to ecosystem integrity
