Statistics in Baseball: Overview of Sabermetrics and Player Metrics
In this lecture, explore the world of sabermetrics in baseball, analyzing player contributions through metrics like stolen bases, RBIs, and more. Understand how to measure a player's performance and assess the importance of repeatable metrics. Dive into the concept of runs created and learn about different valuations for hits in the game.
Download Presentation
Please find below an Image/Link to download the presentation.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author.If you encounter any issues during the download, it is possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.
You are allowed to download the files provided on this website for personal or commercial use, subject to the condition that they are used lawfully. All files are the property of their respective owners.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author.
E N D
Presentation Transcript
MA 276: Sports and statistics Lecture 2: Statistics in baseball Lopez MA 276 0
Goals i) Overview of sabermetrics: What to look for? ii) Example: Runs created iii) Additional topics after lecture -Bunting/pitchouts, Pitch framing -Defensive independent pitching Tools i) Bivariate tools: scatter plots, r, R-squared ii) In-sample versus out-of-sample comparisons Lopez MA 276 1
What is sabermetrics? Search for objective knowledge about baseball -Bill James Ex: Which player on the Red Sox contributed most to his team s offense? Ex: Which player is your favorite? Ex: Which player deserves the MVP award? Lopez MA 276 2
Questions well want to answer 1 Is the metric important to success? 2 How well does the metric measure a player s contribution? 3 Is the metric repeatable? Lopez MA 276 3
Is the metric important to success? What s important? What s success? -Examples in baseball Stolen bases Home runs RBIs Batting average Walks Slugging percentage Lopez MA 276 4
How well does the metric measure a player s contribution? Stolen bases Home runs RBIs Batting average Walks Slugging percentage Which are impacted by a player s teammates? Which are impacted by a player s ballpark? Which are impacted by a player s coach? Which are impacted by a player s era? Lopez MA 276 5
Is the metric repeatable? Stolen bases Home runs RBIs Batting average Walks Slugging percentage How to judge repeatable? Why is repeatability (?) important? How does sample size fit in? Lopez MA 276 6
Ex: Runs created Why runs created? Lopez MA 276 7
Ex: Runs created General assumptions & expectations Different valuations to different types of hits Hitters only control their performance -What is assumed here? Hitters do not control when they hit Hitters do not control importance of at-bat relative to game s outcome Lopez MA 276 8
Ex: Runs created Lopez MA 276 9
Ex: Runs created Benefits of runs created Team level accuracy: - Basic version can predict a team s run total within a 5% margin of error Individual talent: - Reflects individual performance only Repeatability? - To be determined in Thursday s lab. Lopez MA 276 10
Ex: Runs created Weaknesses of runs created What if clutch exists? Ballpark dependencies Opponent dependencies Lopez MA 276 11
Ex: Runs created What s it look like? Lopez MA 276 12
Ex: Runs created Lopez MA 276 13
Ex: Runs created How do we describe the association between runs created and actual runs? Lopez MA 276 14
Ex: Runs created What about the association between team runs and other team variables? Note: What does the select command do? Lopez MA 276 15
Ex: Runs created Lopez MA 276 16
Ex: Runs created What about runs created against more popular but advanced metrics? Lopez MA 276 17
Ex: Runs created Lopez MA 276 18
What weve shown 1 Is runs created important to success? -Yes. Strong link to team runs 2 How well does the metric measure a player s contribution? -Pretty well. Other advanced formulas exist -Adjustments possible 3 Is the metric repeatable? -Let s find out Lopez MA 276 19
Ex: Runs created 3 Is the metric repeatable? Explanatory power vs. Predictive power Lopez MA 276 20
Ex: Runs created 3 Is the metric repeatable? Lopez MA 276 21
Ex: Runs created 3 Is the metric repeatable? Lopez MA 276 22
Ex: Runs created Implications: Other tools for assessing error: MSE: MAE: Lopez MA 276 23
Additional topics Bunting, pitchouts Pitch framing Defensive independent pitching 1 Importance 2 Player-specific contributions 3 Repeatability Lopez MA 276 24
