Status of Unemployment Trust Fund and Related Issues
This document discusses the status of the Unemployment Trust Fund and related issues as presented by the Commission on Unemployment Compensation, with Ellen Marie Hess as the Commissioner. The content highlights key points from the report delivered on July 17, 2019, providing insights into the state of the fund and its implications.
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Status of the Unemployment Trust Fund and Related Issues Commission on Unemployment Compensation Ellen Marie Hess, Commissioner July 17, 2019
Trust Fund DataStandard Forecast (Millions of Dollars) 2 2018 2019* January 1 Balance $1,132.2 $1,307.2 Tax Revenue $433.2 $424.6 Interest Revenue $29.0 $31.2 Benefits $288.0 $327.9 December 31 Balance $1,307.2 $1,451.6 Solvency Level (6/30) 79.2% 83.4% *Projected
June 30 Trust Fund Balances and Solvency Levels (Forecast as of July 6, 2019) 3 $1,800 $1,570 86% $1,600 $1,459 $1,451 79% 83% $1,400 $1,194 76% $1,200 $1,029 68% $1,000 Millions $825 57% $757 64% $800 $564 40% $600 $335 24% $291 $400 24% $135 9% $200 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ($80) -6% ($104) -8% -$200 Trust Fund Solvency shown as a percent (%) *negative amounts indicate periods of borrowing from the Federal government
Average Total State Tax (Forecast as of July 6, 2019) 4 $250 $16.00 $16.00 $16.00 $16.00 $30.40 $200 $42.40 $17.60 $16.00 $37.60 $11.20 $16.00 $5.60 Cost per Employee $150 $22.40 $2.40 Fund Builder $0.80 Pool $1.60 Base $100 $6.40 $4.00 $187.60 $187.40 $0.80 $177.60 $166.60 $161.40 $151.40 $131.60 $127.60 $116.20 $50 $97.40 $96.60 $92.00 $89.20 $0 $99 $103 $166 $215 $236 $234 $221 $194 $157 $134 $100 $90 $96 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Calendar Year
Pool Taxes (Forecast as of July 6, 2019) 5 45 $42.40 40 $37.60 35 $30.40 30 Cost per Employee 25 $22.40 20 $17.60 15 $11.20 10 $6.40 $5.60 $4.00 5 $2.40 $1.60 $0.80 $0.80 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Calendar Year *2020 is projected using a data model
Distribution of 2018 and 2019 Base Tax RatesComputed and Assigned Rates 6 Tax Rates Computed Number of Employers 2018* 146,813 Percent of Total 2019** 152,127 2018* 68.4% 2019** 69.9% 0.10% 12,182 5.7% 13,967 6.42% 0.12%-0.94% 8,540 4.0% 7,769 3.57% 1.00%-1.89% 5,214 2.4% 4,628 2.13% 2.00%-2.97% 3,404 1.6% 3,229 1.48% 3.00%-3.91% 2,272 1.1% 1,950 0.90% 4.00%-4.99% 1,736 0.8% 1,422 0.65% 5.00%-5.94% 356 0.2% 308 0.14% 6.00%-6.12% 8,699 4.1% 7,572 3.48% 6.20% Assigned 22,791 10.6% 22,193 10.20% New, 2.50% 2,173 1.0% 88 0.04% Delinquent, 6.20% 238 0.1% 257 0.12% Foreign Contractor, 6.20% 291 0.2% 1,990 0.91% Other, 6.20% 214,709 100.0% 217,500 100.0% Total Taxable wage base is $8,000. *excluding 0.03% pool tax. **excluding 0.01% pool tax.
Claims Filed 7 Calendar Year Initial Claims 2013 309,836 2014 253,030 2015 210,080 2016 198,912 2017 168,028 2018 144,166 2019 (Jan. Jun.) 69,512* * Annual claims projected to be 135,000.
UI Initial Claims 2017 - 2019 (year to date) 8 20,000 Total initial claims through May 2019 were down 4.9% from 2018 and down 16.2% from 2017. 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019
UI Final Payments 2017 - 2019 (year to date) 9 For the first five months of 2019, final payments are down 11.8% from 2018 and 24.6% from 2017. 3,100 2,900 2,700 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019
Exhaustion Rates 2017 - 2019 (year to date) 10 40.0% The exhaustion rate in May was 35.9%, down from last May s 37.8%. 39.5% 39.0% 38.5% 38.0% Exhaustion Rate 37.5% 37.0% 36.5% 36.0% 35.5% 35.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2017 Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019
Virginias Unemployment Rates 2017 - 2019 (year to date) 11 (not seasonally adjusted) 4.8 4.4 4.0 Percent of Labor Force 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019
Total Nonfarm Employment Over-the-year Growth (seasonally adjusted data) 12 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% USA Virginia
May 2019 Labor Force Participation Rates and Unemployment Rates (Fourth Circuit States) 13 (not seasonally adjusted) Participation Rate* (Percent) Unemployment Rate (Percent) State 71.6 5.3 District of Columbia 67.5 3.6 Maryland 62.2 4.0 North Carolina 58.9 3.3 South Carolina 65.8 2.9 Virginia 54.8 4.3 West Virginia 62.8 3.6 U.S. * Participation Rate = civilian labor force divided by non-institutional civilian population age 16 and above.
Fourth Circuit States 14 Trust Fund Balance (Millions) (6/30/19) Average Tax per Employee (year ending 9/30/18) Average Tax Rate (year ending 9/30/18) 2019 Taxable Wage Base 2019 Maximum Weekly Benefit 2019 Maximum Weekly Benefit Replacement Rate 2019 State Potential Duration (Weeks) DC $537 $222 2.47% $9,000 $438 27% 26 MD $1,318 $174 2.05% $8,500 $430 39% 26 NC $3,821 $148 0.61% $24,300 $350 38% 12 20 SC $1,051 $190 1.36% $14,000 $326 39% 13 20 VA $1,459 $110 1.37% $8,000 $378 36% 12 26 WV $207 $352 2.93% $12,000 $424 53% 26 US Avg. $293 2.00% $13,905 $445 43%
Treasury Offset Program (TOP) 15 The IRS Treasury Offset Program (TOP) allows the VEC to submit overpayment debts resulting from unemployment insurance fraud to the IRS to intercept federal tax refunds. Through June 30, 2019, the VEC has collected $1,816,982 from the IRS through TOP for 2019. Participation in this program is mandated under federal law and the Code of Virginia ( 2.2-4806). All recovered debt must be deposited in the Unemployment Trust Fund. The above amount was collected against 31,146 records that had overpayments due to fraud.
Military Trailing Spouse UpdateImpact of Military Trailing Spouse Benefits 16 FY Benefits Claimants CY Solvency Levels CY Base Tax Rates CY Pool Tax Rates 2015 $658,597 212 2015 -0.1 percentage point 2016 Unaffected 2016 Unaffected 2016 $231,050 76 2016 -0.1 percentage point 2017 Unaffected 2017 Unaffected 2017 $722,720 245 2017 -0.1 percentage point 2018 Unaffected 2018 Unaffected 2018 $652,705 223 2018 -0.1 percentage point 2019 Unaffected 2019 Unaffected Determined in November 2019 2019 $520,148 203 2019 2020 2020 Current law sunsets December 31, 2020
