Student Recruitment Updates and Market Insights 2007-2015
"Explore trends in domestic Australian and Victorian markets for student recruitment from 2007 to 2015. Analysis includes shifts in field of education and projections for future demand, including opportunities and challenges in global markets."
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Market Insights and Student Recruitment Update Mark Scherian Manager, Student Recruitment
Domestic Australian Market 2007-2015 Commencing Domestic HE students in Australia 2007-2015 by study level ( 000) Domestic Commencing enrolments increased markedly from 2008-2012 but since 2012 this has slowed as demand from those without university places is met % Change YOY HDR PG UG Enabling +29.3% 9.7% 450 10% +3.4% 9 400 7.4% 8 350 93 ** Important** 2015 commencing student numbers are affected by a change in the Western Australian school starting age in 2002, which means that the 2014 Year 12 class was much less than its usual size (-5% compared to +1% in all other states) 7 300 6 250 5 71 4 200 3 276 150 2 187 100 0.8% 1 50 0 0 -1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1st half 2016 Dept. of Education
Victorian Market 2007-2015 Commencing Domestic HE students in Victoria 2007-2015 by study level ( 000) % Change YOY HDR PG UG Enabling Victorian Commencing enrolments have followed a similar trend to the rest of Australia 10.8% +3.3% 100 11 10 90 +33.2% 9 80 25 8 9.7% 70 7 60 6 18 50 5 40 4 67 30 3 41 20 2 10 1 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Double digit domestic growth rates are done Rates of Domestic commencing university enrolments are currently growing below population growth, likely to settle around this rate in future years Victorian secondary school enrolment (FTE) outlook 2017-2021 80,000 2016 Actuals +1.1% 2017 Estimate 60,000 2018 Estimate 40,000 2019 Estimate 71,043 69,719 69,579 70,049 68,413 68,892 68,445 68,605 68,281 67,813 67,472 67,487 66,917 66,863 66,548 63,464 62,156 60,627 61,143 60,014 60,578 2020 Estimate 20,000 2021 Estimate 0 Year 7 Year 8 Year 11 Year 12 Year 9 Year 10 Based on 2016 Victorian HE participation rates it is estimated that Domestic Student numbers will increase by 6000 or 1.6% between 2017-2018 - All migratory and economic factors remaining stable Estimated growth for student numbers ( 000) in Greater Melbourne 2017-2021 Age bands 20-44 +1.2% +1.4% +1.4% +1.6% 344 340 335 331 325 350 300 250 167 166 165 164 163 200 150 20 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 120 117 114 111 107 100 50 55 56 57 57 55 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
The Future Continued demand from China and India, although China may slow Projected demand for HE, 2012-2025 Some growth from Indonesia, but not to Australia Declines in some mid-tier markets including Singapore and Hong Kong Potential loss of market share by the USA and UK due to Brexit and President Trump Canada to expand Expansion of other country competitors: China, Malaysia, Japan, Russia, France and Germany
Where our students study RMIT students by campus 2015 58,825 80% 6,954 Bundoora 75% 70% 2,448 Brunswick 65% In 2015, over 70% of RMIT students undertook their programs in Melbourne 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 49,423 City 10% 5% 0% Melbourne Singapore Vietnam Off campus Hong Kong Shanghai Study Abroad indonesia 8,273 Saigon 6,069 Hanoi 2,512 1,761 1,180 916 712 257 3,557 Headcount Melbourne Singapore Vietnam Off-campus & online Hong Kong Shanghai Study Abroad Indonesia 9
ATAR The ATAR distribution of RMIT commencing students who accepted their offer has not changed substantially since 2010 Slightly more students had an ATAR between 70-80 and slightly less had an ATAR between 60-70 The VTAC ATAR distribution follows a similar trend Approximately 70% of RMIT enrolled students have an ATAR of 80 or below compared to 60% of the VTAC market RMIT enrolled student ATAR distribution 2010-2015 VTAC enrolled student ATAR distribution 2010-2015 100% 3.5% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 100% 6.3% 6.5% 6.3% 6.4% 7.2% 6.2% 9.0% 9.7% 9.9% 10.0% 9.7% 10.2% 90% 90% 9.1% 9.4% 9.8% 9.8% 10.1% 10.0% 18.9% 20.1% 80% 20.5% 20.9% 20.3% 21.0% 80% 95.00-99.95 95.00-99.95 18.8% 70% 18.9% 19.4% 19.5% 19.3% 18.9% 70% 90.00-94.95 90.00-94.95 20.3% 60% 21.4% 21.8% 80.00- 89.95 22.0% 23.7% 80.00- 89.95 60% 22.9% 18.1% 18.3% 18.0% 18.0% 17.6% 18.1% 50% 70.00-79.95 70.00-79.95 50% 18.6% 40% 60.00-69.95 60.00-69.95 40% 19.0% 18.6% 18.2% 17.3% 17.4% 17.0% 15.6% 16.9% 16.1% 16.2% 16.7% 50.00-59.95 30% 50.00-59.95 30% 14.0% 13.2% 13.2% 13.5% 14.1% 12.3% 13.1% 12.8% 0- 49.95 0- 49.95 12.3% 12.9% 20% 13.1% 20% 13.0% 10% 10% 18.3% 16.3% 16.0% 16.3% 15.7% 15.1% 14.4% 14.8% 15.0% 13.8% 14.1% 12.8% 0% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 10
What they study RMIT students by study level 2013-2015 60% of total RMIT students are undergraduates 35% of students study a program in the management and commerce field VCE/VCAL Cert I & II Associate degrees are growing the fastest of all study levels (by headcount) Non-Award 2013 2014 2015 Cert I & II VCE/VCAL Non-Award PG RSCH Associate Degree Cert III & IV Dip/Adv Dip PGRD CW UGRD 0.4% 1% 2% 3% 4% 7% 10% 13% 60% PG RSCH RMIT students by Study Level and Broad Field of education, 2015 Associate Degree 20,000 Cert III & IV 15,000 AQF 1-2 Dip/Adv Dip AQF 3-4 10,000 AQF 5-6 PGRD CW RSCH PGRD UGRD 5,000 UGRD Total 0 Label Agriculture, Environmental et al Mixed Field Programs Education Natural and Physical Sciences Information Technology Health Society and Culture Architecture and Building Creative Arts Engineering Management and Commerce 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 11
Student Recruitment Team Melissa Robinson Kate Tangas Cody Moore Georgie Abela Annika Forstmanis Georgia Rajic Lauren Louey
The Team Mark Scherian Manager, Student Recruitment Yarra Career Group Melissa Robinson Student Recruitment Officer Waverley Careers Association, Maroondah Careers Group, Sunbury Gisborne Careers Network, Moreland Darebin Careers Network, Peninsula Careers Education Association, Bendigo Region Careers Association, Albury Wodonga Career Advisers Association, Central Gippsland Career Advisers Group, Central Murray Career Group, North East Career Network, Shepparton and District Careers Association, Sunraysia Careers Association, Warrnambool and District Career Teachers Association, Wimmera and Southern Mallee Careers Group Kate Tangas Student Recruitment Officer Eastern Careers Network, WRICA, Geelong Career Teacher Association, Whittlesea Career Development Group, North West Career Group, Melton Careers and Pathways Network Cody Moore Student Recruitment Officer Ballarat Careers Education Network, Banyule Nillumbik Careers Group, Bayside Careers Group, Brimbank Careers and Pathways Network, Dandenong Valley Careers Education Association, Knox Careers Group Georgie Abela Student Recruitment Officer
