Technical Advisory Committee Meeting - January 15, 2025 Updates & Analysis

Technical Advisory Committee January 15, 2025 1

Meeting Agenda 1. 2024-25 Work Plan Update. 2. TTS 2022 Analysis 3. GTAModel Updates: V4.2.1 1. V4.3 2. V5.0 3. 4. 2025-26 Draft Work Plan & Budget 5. Meeting schedules. 6. Other business. 7. Adjournment. 2

2024-25 Work Plan TMG 2024-25 Work Plan No. TASK 1 GTAModel V5 development, testing & implementation 2 GTAModel V4 maintenance 3 TMG Network Modelling Toolbox Development & Maintenance 4 XTMF: Upgrades/ Maintenance & V2.0 Development 5 Documentation of TMG products 6 Outreach & Training (3 workshops) 7 Meetings: TMGSC (2) & TMGTAC (6) TMG Staff Average Weekly Time Allocation (Days)2 Suggested 2024-25 Workshops3 W1 V5 Development, Stage 1 Report W2 V5 Development, Stage 2 Report W3 V5 Development, Stage 3 Report 2024-25 Apr 7 1 0.5 0.5 1 Days Allocated Total1 May 7 1 0.5 0.5 1 June 7 1 0.5 0.5 1 July 7 1 0.5 0.5 1 Aug 7 1 0.5 0.5 1 Sep 7 1 0.5 0.5 1 W1 Oct 7 1 0.5 0.5 1 Nov 7 1 0.5 0.5 1 Dec 7 1 0.5 0.5 1 W2 Jan 7 1 0.5 0.5 1 Feb 7 1 0.5 0.5 1 Mar 7 1 0.5 0.5 1 W3 SC % 336 48 24 24 48 480 70.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% Total TAC TAC TAC SC TAC TAC TAC 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10.0 Legend 2022 Network: GTHA network completed. GGH network under construction completed by end of March. XTMF update? 3

TTS 2022 Analysis Now that we have access to the 2022 TTS we are just beginning its analysis & comparison to previous years (particularly 2016). In addition to TTS staff, we have a postdoc (Ya Gao) and a visiting PhD student (Ying Liu) working on this. Two MEng students will likely also work on this in the summer for their MEng projects. 4

GTAModel Updates Proceed in three stages. Stage 1: GTAModel V4.2.1 Stage 2: GTAModel V4.3 Stage 3: GTAModel V5.0 5

GTAModel V4.2.1 Re-estimate & re-calibrate our current V4.2 using 2022 TTS data. GTHA study area. No changes in model structure/specification. Compare model parameters & performance to the 2016-based V4.2. Will provide a first post-pandemic working model system version. Completed by March 31,2025; i.e., by the end of the current work year. 6

GTAModel 4.3 First significant upgrade of GTAModel structure/specification. GGH study area. 2022 TTS base. Overall structure remains the same as in V4.2. Significant changes (examples): Enhanced treatment of Work-at-Home (WaH) & Work-from-Home (WfH). First cut at this problem in support of eventual V5.0 work. May want to do at least two run days per scenario ( Wed/Fri ) to capture variations in WfH? Improved auto ownership. Improved transit travel time modelling. PTC modelling. New activity types (trip purposes), as per 2022 TTS categories. Including new socio-economic variables in population synthesis (ethnicity/recent immigrants). Explore their role in activity/travel behaviour. Originally hoped to have a working version by end of June, but it is more likely to be by September (given the V4.2.1 work). 7

GTAModel V5.0 Finalize (finally!) the V5.0 design while working on V4.2.1 & V4.3. Significant student involvement in the design process. Get going in earnest in September once V4.3 is operational. Build upon the V4.3 improvements. Open up both the project-based activity generation and the activity scheduling models: Elastic activity episode generation. Better interactions between generation, scheduling & mode choice. Improved location choice models. How to model travel in a very large, multi-regional area such as the GGH? Improved treatment of transit fares. Improved treatment of: Serve passenger activities. Carpooling (passenger trip-making in general). Handling within week dynamics. 8

2025-26 Work Plan, Draft 1 TMG 2024-25 Work Plan No. TASK 1 TTS 2022 Analysis 2 GTAModel V4.3 3 GTAModel V5 4 GTAModel V4 maintenance 5 TMG Network Modelling Toolbox Development & Maintenance 6 XTMF: Upgrades/ Maintenance & V2.0 Development 7 Documentation of TMG products 8 Outreach & Training (3 workshops) 9 Meetings: TMGSC (2) & TMGTAC (6) TMG Staff Average Weekly Time Allocation (Days)2 Suggested 2024-25 Workshops3 W1 GTAModel V4.2.1 W2 GTAModel V4.3 W3 GTAMdeol V5, interim report W4 GTAModel V5 Legend n Lighter, on-going effort (TMG staff) n Heavy, focussed effort (TMG staff) TMG maiintenance, support, etc. 2024-25 Apr 2.5 7.5 1 1 1 1 1 Days Allocated Total1 May 2.5 7.5 1 1 1 1 1 June 2.5 7.5 1 1 1 1 1 W1 TAC 15 July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar % 30 222 276 48 48 48 48 720 4.2% 30.8% 38.3% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% Total 10 1 1 1 1 1 10 1 1 1 1 1 10 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 1 1 1 1 W2 SC 15 1 10 1 1 1 1 1 10 1 1 1 1 W3 11 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 W4 SC 15 TAC 15 TAC 15 TAC 15 TAC 15 TAC 15 TAC 15 15 15 15 15.0 n = approximate, average number of TMG days per week for this task Notes: 1 Estimated total days of staff time allocated to the task, assuming 48 working weeks per year (staff take 2 weeks vacation and the University closes for 2 weeks/year during the Christmas Break). 2 5 days/week for James Vaughan, Henry Waterhouse & Amit Sandhel. Student & postdoc time not included in this table. Note that the budget does not include full coverage of James Vaughan's time. 3 Provisional. Topics may change. 9

TMG Budget Expenses Salaries1 Computer Hardware Software Licences (Emme, Aimsun, misc.) Contingency Overhead (@40%) Total Expenses Percent increase in expenses over previous year 2025-26 Amount 2026-27 Amount 2027-28 Amount 2025-26 Draft Budget $211,026 $10,000 $6,000 $216,229 $5,000 $6,000 $221,971 $5,000 $6,000 $0 $0 $0 $91,000 $318,026 15.24% $91,000 $318,229 0.06% $91,000 $323,971 1.80% Revenues Member Contributions Metrolinx MTO City of Toronto City of Hamilton Region of Durham Region of Halton Region of Peel Region of York Montreal (ARTM) Halifax (JRTA & HRM) City of Brampton City of Mississauga City of Vaughan Region of Niagara Toronto Transit Commission Total Member Contributions Carry-Forward from Previous Year3 Additional Revenue (UofT Subsidy) Total Revenues2 2025-26 Amount $66,000 $34,000 $34,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $7,500 $7,500 $7,500 $7,500 $7,500 $318,500 2026-27 Amount $66,000 $34,000 $34,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $7,500 $7,500 $7,500 $7,500 $7,500 $318,500 2027-28 Amount $66,000 $34,000 $34,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $7,500 $7,500 $7,500 $7,500 $7,500 $318,500 Notes: 1. 2 full-time TMG staff salaries + benefits + 1 undergraduate summer research assistant + portion of Senior Software Designer TMG staff salary increases based on current salary schedule for USW employees at UofT. This may change in the future. 2. "Total Revenues" include carry-forward from the previous year. 3. Estimated. University of Toronto In-Kind Contributions Principal Investigator Time Senior Software Architect Time Post-Doctoral Fellow Time Graduate Research Assistants Time Office Space & telephones Total UofT In-Kind - Total Overhead Contribution This excludes other UofT in-kind contributions to TMG that are very difficult to quantify. These include: Data Management Group support of TMG Internet access University of Toronto library access Administrative support UTTRI computers & software in addition to explicit TMG equipment & software. $50,000.00 $0.00 $30,000.00 $30,000.00 $6,000.00 $116,000.00 $115,999.85 $8,027 $8,501 $8,772 $0 $0 $0 $326,527 $327,001 $327,272 Percent Increase in contributions over previous year Total Revenues - Total Expenses Contributions-Actual Expenses 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% $8,500.77 $473.77 $8,771.68 $270.91 $3,301.14 -$5,470.54 10

2024-25 Meeting Schedule TMG Technical Advisory Committee Meetings (10:00-12:00): February 5, 2025 TMG Workshops (10:00-12:00): March 26, 2025 TMG Steering Committee Meetings (10:00-12:00): March 12, 2025 (NOTE DATE CHANGE!) 11

Proposed 2025-26 Meeting Schedule TMG Technical Advisory Committee Meetings (10:00-12:00): April 2, 2025 May 7, 2025 June 11, 2025 September 3, 2025 November 5, 2025 January 7, 2026 February 4, 2026 TMG Workshops (10:00-12:00): June 26, 2025 October 29, 2025 December 3, 2025 March 26, 2026 TMG Steering Committee Meetings (10:00-12:00): October 1, 2025 March 4, 2026 12

Other Business 13

We are adjourned! Thank you! 14