Technical Advisory Committee Work Plan and Progress Report

Technical Advisory Committee June 3th, 2015 1

Todays Agenda 1. Work plan progress report. 2. GTAModel V4.0 update 3. Surface transit speed updating 4. GTAModel V4.0 Workshop 5. Other Business 6. Adjournment 2

Work Plan TMG 2015-16 Work Plan TASK 1. GTAModel V4.0 on-going validation & application 2. Multi-class auto assignment 3. HOV network coding validation 4. Future year base network DBMS 5. Updating current TMG 3-step freight model 6. Truck route restrictions added to base network 7. Surface transit speed updating 8. Multi-class, congested, transit assignment 9. XTMF Core 1.1 finalization, implementation & documentation 10. Improved NWS destination choice models 11. Improved active transportation mode choice model 12. Auto-passenger rail access/egress station choice model 13. Economic impact analysis tools & documentation 14. Visualization tools for travel demand analysis & documentation 15. Student-based research projects 16. Documentation of Software & Models 17. TMG Toolbox Improvements 18. Outreach & Training (3 workshops) 19. Meetings: TMGSC (2) & TMGTAC (5) MONTH Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar W1 W2 TAC W3 TAC TAC SC TAC TAC SC 3

Work Plan TMG 2015-16 Work Plan TASK 1. GTAModel V4.0 on-going validation & application 2. Multi-class auto assignment 3. HOV network coding validation 4. Future year base network DBMS 5. Updating current TMG 3-step freight model 6. Truck route restrictions added to base network 7. Surface transit speed updating 8. Multi-class, congested, transit assignment 9. XTMF Core 1.1 finalization, implementation & documentation 10. Improved NWS destination choice models 11. Improved active transportation mode choice model 12. Auto-passenger rail access/egress station choice model 13. Economic impact analysis tools & documentation 14. Visualization tools for travel demand analysis & documentation 15. Student-based research projects 16. Documentation of Software & Models 17. TMG Toolbox Improvements 18. Outreach & Training (3 workshops) 19. Meetings: TMGSC (2) & TMGTAC (5) MONTH Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar W1 W2 TAC W3 TAC TAC SC TAC TAC SC Generally on-schedule: Multi-class auto assignment done. HOV network coding done. V4 documentation complete by mid June. Economic evaluation & visualization in good shape but development will continue. 4

Work Plan TMG 2015-16 Work Plan TASK 1. GTAModel V4.0 on-going validation & application 2. Multi-class auto assignment 3. HOV network coding validation 4. Future year base network DBMS 5. Updating current TMG 3-step freight model 6. Truck route restrictions added to base network 7. Surface transit speed updating 8. Multi-class, congested, transit assignment 9. XTMF Core 1.1 finalization, implementation & documentation 10. Improved NWS destination choice models 11. Improved active transportation mode choice model 12. Auto-passenger rail access/egress station choice model 13. Economic impact analysis tools & documentation 14. Visualization tools for travel demand analysis & documentation 15. Student-based research projects 16. Documentation of Software & Models 17. TMG Toolbox Improvements 18. Outreach & Training (3 workshops) 19. Meetings: TMGSC (2) & TMGTAC (5) MONTH Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar W1 W2 TAC W3 TAC TAC SC TAC TAC SC On-target for next quarter: On-target for future year network DBMS, 3-step freight model, XTMF Core 1.1 Preliminary multi-class, congested transit assignment testing begun. Active transportation mode choice model underway. 5

GTAModel V4.0 Model Overview Mode Choice Parameter Results Mode Choice Results Transit Parameter Results Boardings Screenlines 6

Model Overview Initial Network Assignment Load Zone System Load Network Data Compute Access Station Model Compute PoRPoW Probabilities Compute PoRPoS Probabilites Load Household Assign School Zone Assign Work Zone Scheduler Mode Choice Network Assignment Compute Next Iteration 7

Mode Choice Parameter Results Value of TimeP Auto Transit G S M St U 29.9867159 27.60404 29.65409 29.97654 29.92864 28.20381 15.5018972 27.91662 13.38866 29.99561 26.36896 15.83214 walk/ivtt Transit P 2.82246223 3.117891 3.197698 1.66546 3.093211 2.659376 G S M St U wait/ivtt Transit P 3.57867404 2.44743 3.58938 2.143965 2.38517 3.237301 G S M St U 8

Mode Choice Results 9

Transit Parameter Results Parameter Congestion Penalty Perception Value 1 Congestion Exponent: Fare Perception Wait Time Perception Toronto Walk Perception Non-Toronto Walk Perception Toronto Access Perception Non-Toronto Access Perception PD1 Walk Perception 6.56 6.69 6.69 3.33 6.17 15.14 2.65 1.35 1.16 1.82 1.80 1.12 TTF1 TTF2 TTF3 TTF4 TTF5 1.50 0.00457 7.50 1.43 3.0 3.50 4.29 Brampton Boarding Penalty Durham Boarding Penalty GO Bus Boarding Penalty GO Train Boarding Penalty Halton Boarding Penalty Hamilton Boarding Penalty Streetcar (including Exclusive ROW) Boarding Penalty 0.95 2.95 5.42 2.79 3.20 Subway Boarding Penalty TTC Bus Boarding Penalty YRT Boarding Penalty VIVA Boarding Penalty MiWay Boarding Penalty 10 2.04 3.03 AM Assignment Period PM Assignment Period

Predicted & Observed Boardings by Agency, AM & PM Peak Periods 11

Transfer Matrix, Predicted & Observed Boardings & Alightings, AM-Peak 12

TTC Station Activity by Time of Day 13

TTC Station Activity by Time of Day Line 2 (BD) Station AM Peak Activity 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - -2,000 -4,000 -6,000 -8,000 -10,000 -12,000 -14,000 -16,000 -18,000 -20,000 TTC Boardings Model Boardings TTC Alightings Model Alightings 14

Screenlines Auto Counts TTS SL CCDRS 40,759 34,014 60,257 40,130 16,228 6,075 Demand 39,878 32,085 56,870 33,910 18,560 5,577 SL Description City West Boundary City West Boundary City North Boundary City North Boundary City East Boundary City East Boundary T1001 I T1001 O T1002 I T1002 O T1003 I T1003 O Central Area Cordon West T1014 I 17,323 17,388 Central Area Cordon West T1014 O 11,375 7,625 Central Area Cordon North T1058 I 7,879 6,376 Central Area Cordon North T1058 O 4,336 2,427 Central Area Cordon East T1035 I 16,831 16,175 Central Area Cordon East T1035 O 12,208 6,820 15

Surface Transit Speed Updating High level objective: Develop a comprehensive model for the speed of transit vehicles which operate in mixed traffic. The calibration surface transit speeds will result in a model that more closely reflects existing conditions on the streets. Current lack of calibration/adjustment of surface speeds has a number of impacts on the model: It is difficult to assess the impact of future traffic conditions on transit services. Multimodal transportation planning is hindered without accurate assessment of transit performance. Surface transit modes may appear artificially more attractive to trip-makers, skewing mode splits. 16

Surface Transit Speed Updating Possible solutions: Segment level model for transit speeds, as a function of auto speeds, boardings, alightings, and other factors as determined. Land-use level model for transit speeds, which are a function of planning-level factors (such as daily traffic volumes, area type, adjacent land use, other factors as determined) Other? 17

Surface Transit Speed Updating Preliminary literature review findings: Thus far, there has been no literature found that discussed surface speed updating in a large regional model, like V4. Tangentially, surface speed updating is related to transit speed modeling, surface speed reliability, and transit vehicle dwell time modelling. Much of the work in surface speed updating is done via regression models. Feng et. al found bus speed was a function of: stop location, intersection delay, and traffic conditions (w.r.t time of day). Kieu et. al used multiple traffic data sources to relate bus speed and car speeds via a cross-validated regression model. Florida DOT found a linear relationship between bus and auto travel times, during a range of time periods. McKnight et. al had similar results to the above studies, but used proxies for traffic as time of day, or direction of travel. Overall, very limited work done in the field. 18

V4.0 Workshop TMG 2015-16 Work Plan TASK 1. GTAModel V4.0 on-going validation & application 2. Multi-class auto assignment 3. HOV network coding validation 4. Future year base network DBMS 5. Updating current TMG 3-step freight model 6. Truck route restrictions added to base network 7. Surface transit speed updating 8. Multi-class, congested, transit assignment 9. XTMF Core 1.1 finalization, implementation & documentation 10. Improved NWS destination choice models 11. Improved active transportation mode choice model 12. Auto-passenger rail access/egress station choice model 13. Economic impact analysis tools & documentation 14. Visualization tools for travel demand analysis & documentation 15. Student-based research projects 16. Documentation of Software & Models 17. TMG Toolbox Improvements 18. Outreach & Training (3 workshops) 19. Meetings: TMGSC (2) & TMGTAC (5) MONTH Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar W1 W2 TAC W3 TAC TAC SC TAC TAC SC Plan is to have a one-day workshop on GTAModel V4.0. Originally projected for July. July, however, will still be quite busy with City Modelling project & EJM will be away most of the month. Is August a feasible target for the workshop or will too many people be away on vacation? 19

Thank you! Next TAC Meeting: Wednesday, September 2, 2015, 10:00-12:00 20