Texas Population Characteristics, Trends, and Projections - Insights from Texas Fiscal Officers Academy

Texas Population Characteristics, Trends, and Projections Texas Fiscal Officers Academy February 24, 2014 Austin, Texas

Growing States, 2000-2010 Numerical Change 2000-2010 Percent Change 2000-2010 2000 2010 Population* Population* United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7% Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6% California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0% Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6% Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3% North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5% Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6% 65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth of the Hispanic population Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count. 2

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2012 Percent Change Due to Annual Percent Change -- 2.4 1.7 2.7 2.0 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.4 Numerical Change -- 1,868,483 1,617,053 3,032,461 2,757,319 3,865,310 4,293,741 915,235 387,397 Natural Increase -- 93.91 86.74 41.58 65.85 49.65 54.94 52.05 Net Year* 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 Population 7,711,194 9,579,677 11,196,730 14,229,191 16,986,510 20,851,820 25,145,561 26,060,796 26,448,193 Migration -- 6.09 13.26 58.42 34.15 50.35 45.06 47.95 * All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. 3 Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio. Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.

Total Estimated Population by County, 2012 Legend POPESTIMATE2012 71-10,000 10,001-50,000 50,001-100,000 100,001-500,000 500,001-1,000,000 1,000,001-4,253,700 Along and east of I-35: 40% of land 86% of population 92% of population growth (2011-2012) 4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 Population Estimates

Legend Change of the Total Population by County, 2010 to 2012 tl_2010_48_county10 popchg4201072012 LT 0 96 counties lost population over the two year period 1-1,000 1,001-20,000 20,001-80,000 80,001-161,252 Of counties that lost population 90% had net out migration 47% had natural decline 5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2012 Vintage.

The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012 Percent Increase 1. Midland, Texas 4.6 2. Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky. 3.7 3. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla. 3.6 4. The Villages, Fla. 3.4 5. Odessa, Texas 3.4 6. Jacksonville, N.C. 3.3 7. Austin-Round Rock, Texas 3.0 8. Casper, Wyo. 3.0 9. Columbus, Ga.-Ala. 2.9 10. Manhattan, Kan. 2.8 6 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012

The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012 Numeric Increase 1. Harris, Texas 80,005 2. Los Angeles, Calif. 73,764 3. Maricopa, Ariz. 73,644 4. Dallas, Texas 45,827 5. San Diego, Calif. 38,880 6. King, Wash. 35,838 7. Travis, Texas 34,381 8. Orange, Calif. 34,017 9. Tarrant, Texas 32,997 10. Clark, Nev. 32,833 7 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013

8 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas Economic Indicators, February 2014

Estimated Net Migration Between States and Texas, 2011 California 19,697 North Carolina 10,022 New York 9,043 Alaska 5,271 Louisiana 4,860 New Mexico 4,807 Virginia 4,790 New Jersey 4,288 Kansas 4,231 Georgia 4,164 Arizona 4,120 Puerto Rico 4,075 Indiana 3,774 Pennsylvania 3,681 Missouri 3,041 Illinois 2,892 Nevada 2,782 Kentucky 2,695 Florida 2,695 Alabama 2,525 Arkansas 2,014 Hawaii 1,740 Nebraska 1,664 Tennessee 1,652 Wisconsin 1,427 Iowa 1,381 Massachusetts 1,119 West Virginia 1,107 Wyoming 1,045 Idaho 1,035 Utah 1,005 Rhode Island 940 Michigan 863 Maine 797 Oklahoma 776 Oregon 480 Montana 420 Delaware 48 District of Columbia -284 Vermont -380 North Dakota -425 South Dakota -451 Connecticut -510 Maryland -643 Colorado -739 Mississippi -828 South Carolina -881 Minnesota -1,198 New Hampshire -1,389 Washington -2,566 Ohio -3,032 9 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011One-year Sample

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010 250000 200000 White (non-Hispanic) Hispanic Population 150000 100000 50000 0 100 to 104 4 years 8 years 72 years 84 years 96 years 12 years 16 years 20 years 24 years 28 years 32 years 36 years 40 years 44 years 48 years 52 years 56 years 60 years 64 years 68 years 76 years 80 years 88 years 92 years Under 1 year Age 10 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 NH White Male NH White Female 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 11 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male Hispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 12 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 NH White Male Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male NH White Female Hispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 13 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050 Migration Scenarios 60,000,000 Zero 55,000,000 .5 of 2000-2010 50,000,000 2000-2010 45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 14 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 NH-White 20,000,000 NH-Black 15,000,000 Hispanic NH-Other 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 15 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Percent of Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment, Texas, 2001-2011 35% Some College/Associate Degree 30% High School or Equivalent 25% Percent of Labor Force Bachelor's Degree 20% Less than High School 15% Graduate or Professional Degree 10% 5% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year 16 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

Percent of Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) with Educational Attainment of High School Graduate and Above by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2001-2011 100% Percent of the Civilian Labor Force with High School Dgree or Greater by Non-Hispanic White 95% Non-Hispanic Black 90% Non-Hispanic Other 85% Race/Ethnicity 80% 75% 70% Hispanic 65% 60% 55% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011 17

Projected Constant Rates of Educational Attainment for the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64), Texas, 2011-2030 35% Some College/Associates Degree 30% High School or Equivelent 25% Percent of Civilian Labor Force Bachelor's Degreee 20% Less than High School 15% Graduate or Professional Degree 10% 5% 0% Year 18 Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2011

Projected Trended Rates of Educational Attainment for the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64), Texas, 2011-2030 40% 35% Some College/Associates Degree 30% Percent of Civilian Labor Force High School or Equivelent 25% Bachelor's Degree 20% Less than High School 15% Graduate or Professional Degree 10% 5% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Year 19 Sources: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas 40.0% 2011 ACS 34.3% 35.0% 2030 Constant 31.3% 29.9% 30.0% 2030 Trended Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 24.0% 23.8% 25.0% 22.1% 20.4% 20.1% 20.0% 18.7% 18.1% 15.0% 15.0% 11.8% 11.4% 9.8% 9.3% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Educational Attainment 20 Sources: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

Birth rates for teenagers aged 1519, by race and Hispanic origin of mother: United States and each and state, 2011 All races and origins Non- Hispanic white Non- Hispanic black Rank Area Hispanic United States 31.3 21.8 47.4 49.4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Arkansas Mississippi 50.7 50.2 45.4 40.8 66.4 61.4 60.4 42.9 New Mexico 48.8 28.5 28.4 58.2 Oklahoma Texas Louisiana Kentucky 47.8 46.9 45.1 43.5 41.1 27.4 34.5 42.4 58.6 47.4 60.2 51.5 68.6 65.7 50.7 57.6 West Virginia 43.5 44.6 40.5 22.5 SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, Division of Vital Statistics. Preliminary data. 21

Demographics and Destiny 22

Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530 Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.us Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us 23