The Impact of the Refugee Crisis on Europe's Political Dynamics
Analysis of how the refugee crisis may shape Europe's future. Examines the risks of division and unity, credibility challenges, and potential opportunities for EU integration post-crisis.
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Presentation Transcript
Can the refugee crisis make or break Europe? Political dynamics Dr Heather Grabbe, Jean Monnet Fellow 1
Why the migration crisis could break the EU I Polity Crisis mode: the new normal Little time to build consensus - gridlock Short-circuiting of checks and balances 2
Why the migration crisis could break the EU II Unity Hitting limits of inter-governmentalism, moving to bilateralism Members divided on ends, not just means Agreement only on exporting the problem Risks of non-compliance? 3
Why the migration crisis could break the EU III Credibility The perfect storm of 2015-16 Narratives of blame Linking migrants, terrorists and Eurocrats 4
Why the migration crisis could make the EU I Deepening after crisis Neo-functionalist logic Export to international level and implement regionally Agencies and core state powers 5
Why the migration crisis could make the EU II Variable geometry Unprecedented scale Mini-Schengen? New ways to overcome the collective action problem: trade-offs Resilience 6
