Three Rivers Local School District Financial Forecast Analysis 2024

Three Rivers Local School District Five Year Financial Forecast Key Indicators & Analysis Teri Riesenberg, Treasurer May 28, 2024

CURRENT FISCAL YEAR Financial Forecast Key Indicators & Analysis Three Rivers Local SD Current Fiscal Year Projected Financial Analysis $12,228,590 Projected General Fund Revenue $25,332,244 Projected General Fund Expenditures $25,614,040 $11,946,794 Projected Loss For The Year Is -$281,796 July 1, Beginning Cash Balance June 30, Ending Cash Balance @2023 Frontline Education

CURRENT FISCAL YEAR Financial Forecast Key Indicators & Analysis Three Rivers Local SD Current Fiscal Year Projected Expenditure Analysis Projected Personnel Costs $18,911,285 All Other Expenditures 8% Salaries $13,900,349 Benefits $5,010,936 Purchased Services 18% Projected Purchased Services $4,567,964 Personnel Cost 74% Projected All Other Expenditures $2,134,791 Supplies, Capital, Debt, Other Operating $2,024,791 Advances, Transfer, Other Uses $110,000 @2023 Frontline Education

Total Revenue by Source Over Time

General Property Tax remains fairly flat despite the 2023 Property Re-Appraisal. Total revenue increase to the district is only generated on the 3.4 inside mils and new construction. Total increase for fiscal year 2024 was a total of $43,158. There are no new levies being discussed or included in the forecast at this time. YTD interest from our investments totals $577,924 as of this presentation, which is an increase of $300,000 and will grow as we close the fiscal year.

Due to the partial shut down of the Miami Fort Power Plant production during the previous year, PUPP revenues are down approximately $800,000. We do not anticipate that to occur again this year but will continue to closely monitor production and are aware that as the power plant nears permanent closure in FY2027, it is more likely than not that further shutdowns and reductions in revenue may occur.

State Funding The Fair School Funding Plan was adopted in FY2022 and is driven by a base cost methodology which is then broken down by local capacity/state share per pupil. The formula is a 6 year phase in funding students where they attend school eliminating open enrollment payments. The large increases in FY2024 and FY2028 are estimated relief payments from the State of Ohio to offset the PUPP revenue loss due to the decrease in production and plant closure based on current law.

State Funding Contd For Three Rivers Local School District, the calculated Base Cost total for FY2024 is $16,019,960 based on the average enrollment of 1,992* students. The current biennial budget (FY24-25) includes years 3(50%) and 4(66.67%). The forecast assumes the final biennial phase in will continue in year 5(83.33%) and year 6(100%). Base costs were also updated to FY22 data which will continue thru fiscal year 2025. $16,019,960 / 1992* students = Base Cost per Pupil of $8,043.00 The local/state share breakdown is reflected in the lower left chart. *Enrollment used for base cost calculation is the higher of the three year average(district educated) for years 2021-2023 OR 2023, whichever is higher. The base cost is estimated to increase to a total per pupil base cost of $8,715 based on enrollment projections and full phase in.

Summary Revenue Assumptions Revenue remains fairly flat throughout the Forecast We will continue to communicate with and monitor the Miami Fort Power Plant production closely to identify any loss of production. The Miami Fort Power Plant remains scheduled for permanent closure no later than FY2027. We will continue to monitor student enrollment projections and changes to estimate future state funding. The forecast assumes the FSFP phase in will continue through the next biennium. The district is moving closer to the 20-mil floor as a result of the 2023 Real Estate Reappraisal. The district began the year at 28.15 and estimates to be at 21.20 at the end of the forecast.

Purchd Svc Purch d Svc

FORECAST Financial Forecast Key Indicators & Analysis Three Rivers Local SD Projected Revenue vs Expenditures Projected Cash Balance $35,000,000 $14,000,000 $30,000,000 $12,000,000 $10,000,000 $25,000,000 $8,000,000 $20,000,000 $6,000,000 $15,000,000 $4,000,000 $10,000,000 $2,000,000 $5,000,000 $- $- 2023 Actual 2024 Projected 2025 Projected 2026 Projected 2027 Projected 2028 Projected $(2,000,000) 2023 Actual 2024 Projected 2025 Projected 2026 Projected 2027 Projected 2028 Projected Total Revenue Total Expenditures 15.01 Cash Balance Three Year Financial Outlook: By FY 2026 the district is expected to trend toward a cash balance of $7,399,368 Net loss for the year is -$2,769,965 Five Year Financial Outlook: Projected Net loss for FY 2028 is -$4,194,503 By FY 2028 the district's cash balance is projected to trend toward -$409,907 @2023 Frontline Education

FORECAST Financial Forecast Key Indicators & Analysis Three Rivers Local SD Average Annual Change in Key Revenue and Expenditure Assumptions ANNUAL CHANGE IN REVENUE ANNUAL CHANGE IN EXPENSES 3% 5% 4.02% 2.47% 4% 3% 4% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1.50% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0.26% 1% 0% 0% Historical Annual Revenue Change Projected Annual Revenue Change Historical Annual Expenditure Change Projected Annual Expenditure Change Historically Revenue Change Averaged 2.47% Historically Expenditure Change Averaged 1.5% Annually From FY 2020-2023 Annually From FY 2020-2023 Revenue is Projected to Change an Average of 0.26% Expenditures are Projected to Change an Average of 4.02% Annually From FY 2024-2028 Annually From FY 2024-2028 @2023 Frontline Education

Federal Stimulus (ESSER) Dollars will be completely spent as of FY2024 staffing year. ALL supplanted expenses are now returned to the general fund. The supplanting of Federal Stimulus(Pandemic) ESSER Dollars HELPED conserve general fund resources, reducing the deficit in FY21, 22 and 24, and eliminated deficit spending for one year in FY2023. Had the PUPP revenue not decreased, we would also have been out of deficit spending in our current year FY2024.

Expenditure Assumptions the purchase of a new van for special education. As of the next fiscal year, ALL supplanted expenses are now returned to the general fund. In fiscal years 2021 2024 the district supplanted a large majority of the $4,906,172 federal stimulus dollars received directly to the classroom for the purpose of instructional salaries and benefits, purchased services, technology equipment, instructional materials and both salary and benefit lines. Negotiated base salary increases for TREA and TRASP (3%, 3.25%, 3%) in FY25-27 which impact $100,000 addition to purchased services beginning in FY2025 for (2) athletic trainers from Novacare $45,000 (est.) in additional supplemental athletic positions Add for athletic administrative support position Nominal inflationary increases have been estimated for the purchased service and supply categories. Capital improvement plan including busses, technology equipment, textbook adoptions, repairs and maintenance of building and grounds. (Currently 3 busses are backordered.) No base increase in FY2028 we would not be able to offer any base increase until a decision is made and the negative cash balance situation is resolved.

ODE uses this analysis for evaluating cash balance status: Yellow: Caution Salmon/Light Red: Warning Red: Emergency As we move through the forecast, we will continue to monitor changes in state and local funding, status of the Miami Fort Power Plant closure, which will determine the timing and need to a) increase district revenue, b) reduce expenditures, or c) a combination of both.

True Days Cash True Days Cash is the number of days the District can continue to pay its operating expenses using only the amount of cash available. It is calculated by first taking the Total Annual Expenses / 365 days to get the average daily spend, then taking the total cash balance / annual daily spend.