TOU Period Cost Components
This document explores different cost components considered for Time-of-Use (TOU) period analysis at Southern California Edison (SCE), including Marginal Energy Costs and Marginal Capacity Costs. It discusses Marginal Energy Cost (MEC) factors and provides insights into price forecasting models and key inputs influencing the energy pricing structure.
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TOU Period Cost Components CPUC TOU Period Analysis Workshop May 5, 2016 Reuben.Behlihomji@sce.com Manager, Marginal Cost Southern California Edison
Overview Different cost components to be considered for TOU period analysis Marginal energy costs Marginal capacity costs (Peak and Flex) Distribution Heat maps contained herein represent the 2024 modelled year Southern California Edison 2
Marginal Energy Cost (MEC) MEC s are based on a PLEXOS fundamental price forecast RPS Resources modelled as a must take Fundamental price forecast of dispatchable resources Key Inputs: Gross load projections net of DERs (DG, EE and DR); Gas price forecasts for each hub ; GHG compliance cost forecasts; Transmission line and interface limitations based on the CAISO Full Network Model; RPS trajectory for LSEs within the WECC; RPS Generation profiles for wind and solar resources; Variable operating costs (incremental fuel, variable O&M, emissions costs, startup costs, and no load fuel costs; and The energy price includes the costs related to congestion and losses. Southern California Edison 3
MEC Heat Map Color Scale Color Scale Highest Price Weekdays Weekdays Lowest Price Columns: Hours Columns: Hours Rows: Months ** Rows: Months ** 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 Hourly Average * Hourly Average * Average Average 1 1 2 2 0.048 0.043 0.046 0.047 0.047 0.043 0.047 0.048 0.044 0.049 0.043 0.048 0.046 0.046 3 3 0.047 0.043 0.046 0.047 0.046 0.043 0.047 0.048 0.044 0.049 0.043 0.047 0.046 0.046 4 4 0.048 0.042 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.042 0.047 0.047 0.044 0.048 0.042 0.047 0.046 0.046 5 5 0.048 0.043 0.046 0.047 0.047 0.043 0.047 0.048 0.044 0.049 0.043 0.048 0.046 0.046 6 6 0.049 0.044 0.047 0.047 0.047 0.042 0.047 0.048 0.044 0.049 0.044 0.048 0.046 0.046 7 7 0.053 0.047 0.048 0.046 0.043 0.038 0.042 0.046 0.044 0.050 0.046 0.053 0.046 0.046 8 8 0.056 0.045 0.044 0.043 0.044 0.039 0.044 0.046 0.043 0.048 0.044 0.054 0.046 0.046 9 9 0.048 0.042 0.043 0.043 0.044 0.040 0.046 0.047 0.043 0.047 0.042 0.048 0.045 0.045 1 0 1 0 0.046 0.041 0.041 0.042 0.044 0.040 0.047 0.048 0.044 0.047 0.042 0.048 0.044 0.044 1 1 1 1 0.045 0.041 0.041 0.042 0.044 0.040 0.049 0.048 0.044 0.047 0.042 0.047 0.044 0.044 1 2 1 2 0.044 0.040 0.038 0.041 0.044 0.040 0.050 0.049 0.044 0.047 0.041 0.047 0.044 0.044 1 3 1 3 0.041 0.040 0.037 0.039 0.043 0.040 0.052 0.050 0.045 0.047 0.041 0.046 0.044 0.044 1 4 1 4 0.043 0.040 0.040 0.041 0.044 0.041 0.053 0.052 0.046 0.048 0.042 0.046 0.045 0.045 1 5 1 5 0.044 0.041 0.041 0.043 0.045 0.042 0.057 0.055 0.048 0.049 0.042 0.047 0.046 0.046 1 6 1 6 0.046 0.041 0.043 0.044 0.046 0.043 0.058 0.056 0.049 0.049 0.043 0.048 0.047 0.047 1 7 1 7 0.052 0.044 0.044 0.046 0.047 0.044 0.059 0.058 0.054 0.058 0.053 0.057 0.051 0.051 1 8 1 8 0.078 0.058 0.053 0.052 0.050 0.047 0.062 0.075 0.102 0.075 0.086 0.082 0.068 0.068 1 9 1 9 0.073 0.067 0.060 0.059 0.062 0.059 0.086 0.094 0.062 0.065 0.062 0.071 0.068 0.068 20 20 0.067 0.065 0.065 0.064 0.061 0.064 0.070 0.071 0.068 0.073 0.059 0.069 0.066 0.066 21 21 0.060 0.055 0.061 0.069 0.068 0.063 0.068 0.072 0.062 0.065 0.054 0.063 0.063 0.063 22 22 0.056 0.051 0.060 0.060 0.065 0.060 0.064 0.065 0.058 0.060 0.050 0.061 0.059 0.059 23 23 0.052 0.046 0.053 0.053 0.056 0.051 0.061 0.062 0.053 0.054 0.046 0.056 0.054 0.054 24 24 0.050 0.044 0.048 0.048 0.049 0.045 0.053 0.053 0.047 0.050 0.044 0.050 0.048 0.048 0.049 0.044 0.047 0.047 0.047 0.043 0.048 0.049 0.045 0.049 0.044 0.048 0.047 0.047 0.052 0.052 0.046 0.046 0.047 0.047 0.048 0.048 0.049 0.049 0.045 0.045 0.054 0.054 0.056 0.056 0.051 0.051 0.053 0.053 0.047 0.047 0.053 0.053 0.050 Weekends and Holidays Weekends and Holidays Columns: Hours Columns: Hours Rows: Months ** Rows: Months ** 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 Hourly Average * Hourly Average * Average Average 1 1 2 2 0.050 0.045 0.049 0.037 0.042 0.047 0.043 0.043 0.048 0.044 0.055 0.051 0.046 0.046 3 3 0.049 0.045 0.049 0.037 0.042 0.047 0.043 0.043 0.048 0.044 0.055 0.050 0.046 0.046 4 4 0.049 0.045 0.048 0.037 0.042 0.047 0.042 0.043 0.048 0.044 0.055 0.050 0.046 0.046 5 5 0.049 0.045 0.048 0.037 0.042 0.047 0.042 0.043 0.048 0.044 0.055 0.050 0.046 0.046 6 6 0.050 0.046 0.048 0.037 0.042 0.046 0.041 0.043 0.048 0.044 0.055 0.050 0.046 0.046 7 7 0.051 0.046 0.048 0.034 0.027 0.034 0.035 0.039 0.046 0.045 0.056 0.051 0.043 0.043 8 8 0.051 0.045 0.043 0.024 0.030 0.023 0.031 0.036 0.039 0.037 0.053 0.050 0.038 0.038 9 9 0.046 0.040 0.034 0.031 0.030 0.035 0.037 0.038 0.040 0.037 0.045 0.046 0.038 0.038 1 0 1 0 0.042 0.034 0.028 0.028 0.033 0.040 0.038 0.039 0.041 0.038 0.048 0.040 0.038 0.038 1 1 1 1 0.043 0.039 0.029 0.025 0.032 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.042 0.039 0.048 0.044 0.038 0.038 1 2 1 2 0.038 0.038 0.028 0.028 0.032 0.040 0.041 0.041 0.044 0.039 0.045 0.043 0.038 0.038 1 3 1 3 0.037 0.033 0.014 0.017 0.032 0.040 0.042 0.041 0.045 0.040 0.043 0.043 0.035 0.035 1 4 1 4 0.034 0.037 0.020 0.016 0.030 0.041 0.042 0.042 0.046 0.041 0.047 0.043 0.037 0.037 1 5 1 5 0.036 0.038 0.034 0.016 0.020 0.043 0.043 0.043 0.047 0.042 0.049 0.044 0.038 0.038 1 6 1 6 0.044 0.039 0.042 0.032 0.036 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.049 0.044 0.053 0.047 0.043 0.043 1 7 1 7 0.051 0.043 0.044 0.033 0.039 0.046 0.045 0.044 0.051 0.047 0.061 0.053 0.046 0.046 1 8 1 8 0.073 0.051 0.051 0.038 0.042 0.048 0.049 0.057 0.081 0.062 0.093 0.076 0.060 0.060 1 9 1 9 0.070 0.059 0.055 0.039 0.047 0.056 0.063 0.069 0.069 0.058 0.081 0.067 0.061 0.061 20 20 0.066 0.063 0.062 0.042 0.049 0.060 0.058 0.058 0.075 0.066 0.077 0.067 0.062 0.062 21 21 0.060 0.055 0.062 0.051 0.052 0.061 0.057 0.064 0.066 0.057 0.067 0.061 0.059 0.059 22 22 0.056 0.051 0.064 0.050 0.053 0.065 0.056 0.064 0.062 0.051 0.063 0.060 0.058 0.058 23 23 0.053 0.050 0.060 0.046 0.051 0.059 0.052 0.058 0.059 0.047 0.059 0.055 0.054 0.054 24 24 0.051 0.047 0.051 0.039 0.045 0.049 0.045 0.046 0.050 0.045 0.056 0.051 0.048 0.048 0.051 0.046 0.049 0.038 0.042 0.047 0.043 0.044 0.049 0.044 0.056 0.051 0.047 0.047 0.050 0.050 0.045 0.045 0.044 0.044 0.034 0.034 0.039 0.039 0.046 0.046 0.045 0.045 0.047 0.047 0.052 0.052 0.046 0.046 0.057 0.057 0.052 0.052 0.046 * Original CPUC template defined row to indicate "sums," SCE has modified it to reflect the average for each hour ** Spring Spring: Mar. May; Summer Summer: Jun. Sept.; Winter Winter: Oct. Feb. Southern California Edison 4
Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) Probabilistic approach for allocating annualized capacity value across hours in proportion to when the loss of load is likely to occur Highest LOLE Hour(s) Highest LOLE Hour(s) Key Inputs: 30-years historic weather to create 30 possible load shapes with an expected peak and energy equal to its model year load forecast. Daily wind and solar generation forecasts are then randomized against load, by month, to generate Net Load forecasts for each day in the model year. These daily net load forecasts are then sampled and compared to a distribution of non- intermittent resource availability, adjusted for expected maintenance and forced outages, This approach provides a reasonable estimate of the relative risk of being unable to serve some portion of system load in any given period. Southern California Edison 5
LOLE Heat Map Color Scale Color Scale Highest Price Weekdays Weekdays Lowest Price Columns: Hours Columns: Hours Rows: Months ** Rows: Months ** 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 Hourly Average * Hourly Average * Average Average 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 0.008 0.001 0.001 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 4 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 6 1 6 1 7 1 7 0.017 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.037 0.132 0.065 0.075 0.028 0.028 1 8 1 8 0.072 0.071 0.145 0.142 0.119 0.086 0.129 0.190 2.172 0.091 0.065 0.160 0.287 0.287 1 9 1 9 0.025 0.047 0.018 0.010 0.013 0.323 0.011 0.395 0.931 0.002 0.007 0.1 48 0.1 48 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.003 0.000 0.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.002 0.000 0.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.006 0.000 0.001 0.001 - - - - - 0.047 0.003 0.040 0.211 0.000 0.025 0.025 - - - - - 0.009 0.002 0.011 0.028 0.000 0.004 0.004 - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.020 0.020 0.006 0.006 0.028 0.028 0.1 45 0.1 45 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.021 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Weekends and Holidays Weekends and Holidays Columns: Hours Columns: Hours Rows: Months ** Rows: Months ** 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 Hourly Average * Hourly Average * Average Average 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 0.018 0.001 0.001 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 4 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 6 1 6 1 7 1 7 1 8 1 8 0.095 0.022 0.127 0.099 0.090 0.091 0.119 0.048 0.430 0.067 0.101 0.167 0.1 21 0.1 21 1 9 1 9 0.018 0.088 0.018 0.012 0.023 0.014 0.045 0.082 0.000 0.025 0.025 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - 0.012 0.000 0.000 0.048 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.005 - - - 0.008 0.012 0.010 0.012 0.000 0.027 0.001 0.070 0.084 0.01 9 0.01 9 - 0.000 0.003 0.002 0.007 0.000 0.001 0.001 - - - - - 0.000 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.007 0.007 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.006 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.022 0.022 0.006 0.006 0.008 0.008 0.007 0.007 0.007 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - * Original CPUC template defined row to indicate "sums," SCE has modified it to reflect the average for each hour ** Spring Spring: Mar. May; Summer Summer: Jun. Sept.; Winter Winter: Oct. Feb. Southern California Edison 6
Flex Capacity 2024 Frequency 2024 Frequency EFC Calculation based on CAISO FRAC-MOO Categories of Flex Base Ramp Peak Ramp Super Peak Ramp Method Daily max three hour upward ramp representing the amplitude of ramp in the hour that the ramp ends. Each value is then normalized by the sum of all of the daily maximum three hour upward ramps. Purpose The end of the ramp is the targeted hour in which flex need is allocated, as it informs the period during which load should be reduced to lessen the three hour ramp. Columns: Hours Columns: Hours Rows: Months Rows: Months 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 4 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 6 1 6 1 7 1 7 1 8 1 8 1 9 1 9 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 - - - - - - - 1.1% - - - - - - - - 0.8% 4.4% 2.2% - - - - - 2 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.5% 3.6% 3.8% - - - - - 3 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.3% 7.1% 1.1% - - - - - 4 4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.3% - 7.4% 0.5% - - - - - 5 5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.5% 7.1% 0.8% - - - - - 6 6 - - - - - - - - - 0.3% - - - - - - 0.3% 5.5% 2.2% - - - - - 7 7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 8.5% - - - - - - 8 8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1.1% 1.9% 5.5% - - - - - - 9 9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.5% 7.7% - - - - - - 1 0 1 0 - - - - - - 0.3% - - - - - - - - - 3.8% 4.4% - - - - - - 1 1 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4.1% 4.1% - - - - - - 1 2 1 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 7.9% 0.3% - - - - - 2024 Magnitude 2024 Magnitude Columns: Hours Columns: Hours Rows: Months Rows: Months 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 4 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 6 1 6 1 7 1 7 1 8 1 8 1 9 1 9 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 - - - - - - - 8,380 - - - - - - - - 13,325 17,879 13,405 - - - - - 2 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 7,134 16,187 16,184 - - - - - 3 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 10,889 18,703 15,525 - - - - - 4 4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 10,136 - 18,338 14,952 - - - - - 5 5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 8,628 14,611 12,766 - - - - - 6 6 - - - - - - - - - 4,104 - - - - - - 10,250 13,648 13,723 - - - - - 7 7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 13,572 - - - - - - 8 8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 11,150 14,016 16,923 - - - - - - 9 9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 13,510 16,465 - - - - - - 1 0 1 0 - - - - - - 5,848 - - - - - - - - - 16,214 16,158 - - - - - - 1 1 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 16,193 16,481 - - - - - - 1 2 1 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 18,718 12,567 - - - - - Spring Spring: Mar. May; Summer Summer: Jun. Sept.; Winter Winter: Oct. Feb. Southern California Edison 7
Flex Capacity Heat Map Color Scale Color Scale Highest Price Weekdays Weekdays Lowest Price Columns: Hours Columns: Hours Rows: Months Rows: Months 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 Sum Sum * 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 0.001 0.001 0.001 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 4 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 6 1 6 1 7 1 7 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.002 0.009 0.011 0.030 0.030 1 8 1 8 0.010 0.010 0.021 0.021 0.017 0.012 0.019 0.017 0.019 0.013 0.010 0.023 0.1 92 0.1 92 1 9 1 9 0.004 0.007 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.023 0.023 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 Sum Sum 0.01 8 0.01 8 0.01 8 0.01 8 0.024 0.024 0.022 0.022 0.01 9 0.01 9 0.01 7 0.01 7 0.01 9 0.01 9 0.021 0.021 0.021 0.021 0.022 0.022 0.020 0.020 0.024 0.024 0.246 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Weekends and Holidays Weekends and Holidays Columns: Hours Columns: Hours Rows: Months Rows: Months 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 Sum Sum * 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 0.001 0.001 0.001 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 4 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 6 1 6 1 7 1 7 1 8 1 8 0.006 0.001 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.006 0.008 0.003 0.011 0.004 0.007 0.011 0.078 0.078 1 9 1 9 0.001 0.006 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.01 1 0.01 1 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 Sum Sum 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.01 0 0.01 0 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.01 1 0.01 1 0.009 0.009 0.01 2 0.01 2 0.01 1 0.01 1 0.109 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.004 - - - 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.005 0.006 0.01 5 0.01 5 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - * Spring Spring: Mar. May; Summer Summer: Jun. Sept.; Winter Winter: Oct. Feb. Southern California Edison 8
Marginal Generation Capacity - Combining Flex and Peak Needs (2024) Planning for Capacity driven by both Peak and ramp Capacity needs on the system Estimate Estimate of SCE Contribution of SCE Contribution Valuation of a proxy resource that meets both capacity needs requires apportionment of capacity value as a joint cost allocation problem CAISO CAISO Peak Peak CAISO CAISO FLEX FLEX SCE SCE Peak Peak SCE SCE Ramp Ramp Peak Peak Cost Cost Flex Flex Cost Cost Year Year SCE SCE 2021 55,933 17,006 46.3% 25,909 7,877 70% 30% Method Resource adequacy Annual Max Peak capacity needs ISO FRAC MOO criteria Annual Max Ramp capacity needs Ratio of this planning criteria used as the determinant in apportioning value of capacity 2024 56,258 19,972 46.5% 26,132 9,277 64% 36% 2025 56,466 20,801 46.5% 26,251 9,670 63% 37% Southern California Edison 9
Color Scale Color Scale Marginal Generation Capacity - LOLE & Flex Capacity Highest Price Weekdays Weekdays Lowest Price Columns: Hours Columns: Hours Rows: Months ** Rows: Months ** 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 Hourly Average * Hourly Average * Average Average 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 0.008 0.001 0.001 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 4 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 6 1 6 1 7 1 7 0.017 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.037 0.132 0.065 0.075 0.028 0.028 1 8 1 8 0.072 0.071 0.145 0.142 0.119 0.086 0.129 0.190 2.172 0.091 0.065 0.160 0.287 0.287 1 9 1 9 0.025 0.047 0.018 0.010 0.013 0.323 0.011 0.395 0.931 0.002 0.007 0.1 48 0.1 48 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.003 0.000 0.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.002 0.000 0.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.006 0.000 0.001 0.001 - - - - - 0.047 0.003 0.040 0.211 0.000 0.025 0.025 - - - - - 0.009 0.002 0.011 0.028 0.000 0.004 0.004 - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.020 0.020 0.006 0.006 0.028 0.028 0.1 45 0.1 45 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.021 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Weekends and Holidays Weekends and Holidays Columns: Hours Columns: Hours Rows: Months ** Rows: Months ** 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 Hourly Average * Hourly Average * Average Average 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 0.018 0.001 0.001 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 4 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 6 1 6 1 7 1 7 1 8 1 8 0.095 0.022 0.127 0.099 0.090 0.091 0.119 0.048 0.430 0.067 0.101 0.167 0.1 21 0.1 21 1 9 1 9 0.018 0.088 0.018 0.012 0.023 0.014 0.045 0.082 0.000 0.025 0.025 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - 0.012 0.000 0.000 0.048 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.005 - - - 0.008 0.012 0.010 0.012 0.000 0.027 0.001 0.070 0.084 0.01 9 0.01 9 - 0.000 0.003 0.002 0.007 0.000 0.001 0.001 - - - - - 0.000 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.007 0.007 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.006 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.022 0.022 0.006 0.006 0.008 0.008 0.007 0.007 0.007 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - * Original CPUC template defined row to indicate "sums," SCE has modified it to reflect the average for each hour ** Spring Spring: Mar. May; Summer Summer: Jun. Sept.; Winter Winter: Oct. Feb. Southern California Edison 10
Bringing it all Together - Total Marginal Generation Costs (2024 Forecast with Flex Capacity & w/o RPS Adder) Color Scale Color Scale Highest Price Weekdays Weekdays Lowest Price Columns: Hours Columns: Hours Rows: Months ** Rows: Months ** 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 Hourly Average * Hourly Average * Average Average 0.057 0.057 0.051 0.051 0.054 0.054 0.054 0.054 0.055 0.055 0.065 0.065 0.060 0.060 0.084 0.084 0.1 96 0.1 96 0.060 0.060 0.053 0.053 0.060 0.060 0.071 1 1 2 2 0.048 0.043 0.046 0.047 0.047 0.043 0.047 0.048 0.044 0.049 0.043 0.048 0.046 0.046 3 3 0.047 0.043 0.046 0.047 0.046 0.043 0.047 0.048 0.044 0.049 0.043 0.047 0.046 0.046 4 4 0.048 0.042 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.042 0.047 0.047 0.044 0.048 0.042 0.047 0.046 0.046 5 5 0.048 0.043 0.046 0.047 0.047 0.043 0.047 0.048 0.044 0.049 0.043 0.048 0.046 0.046 6 6 0.049 0.044 0.047 0.047 0.047 0.042 0.047 0.048 0.044 0.049 0.044 0.048 0.046 0.046 7 7 0.053 0.047 0.048 0.046 0.043 0.038 0.042 0.046 0.044 0.053 0.046 0.053 0.047 0.047 8 8 0.064 0.045 0.044 0.043 0.044 0.039 0.044 0.046 0.043 0.048 0.044 0.054 0.047 0.047 9 9 0.048 0.042 0.043 0.043 0.044 0.040 0.046 0.047 0.043 0.047 0.042 0.048 0.045 0.045 1 0 1 0 0.046 0.041 0.041 0.042 0.044 0.043 0.047 0.048 0.044 0.047 0.042 0.048 0.044 0.044 1 1 1 1 0.045 0.041 0.041 0.042 0.044 0.040 0.049 0.048 0.044 0.047 0.042 0.047 0.044 0.044 1 2 1 2 0.044 0.040 0.038 0.041 0.044 0.040 0.050 0.049 0.044 0.047 0.041 0.047 0.044 0.044 1 3 1 3 0.041 0.040 0.037 0.039 0.043 0.040 0.052 0.050 0.045 0.047 0.041 0.046 0.044 0.044 1 4 1 4 0.043 0.040 0.040 0.041 0.044 0.041 0.053 0.052 0.046 0.048 0.042 0.046 0.045 0.045 1 5 1 5 0.044 0.041 0.041 0.043 0.045 0.042 0.057 0.055 0.049 0.049 0.042 0.047 0.046 0.046 1 6 1 6 0.046 0.041 0.043 0.044 0.046 0.044 0.058 0.057 0.055 0.049 0.043 0.048 0.048 0.048 1 7 1 7 0.069 0.046 0.044 0.046 0.048 0.046 0.059 0.095 0.185 0.123 0.128 0.057 0.079 0.079 1 8 1 8 0.150 0.129 0.199 0.193 0.169 0.133 0.191 0.265 2.275 0.167 0.151 0.241 0.355 0.355 1 9 1 9 0.098 0.114 0.078 0.069 0.075 0.382 0.096 0.489 0.993 0.067 0.062 0.077 0.21 7 0.21 7 20 20 0.067 0.065 0.065 0.064 0.061 0.111 0.073 0.111 0.279 0.073 0.059 0.069 0.091 0.091 21 21 0.060 0.055 0.061 0.069 0.068 0.071 0.070 0.082 0.090 0.065 0.054 0.063 0.067 0.067 22 22 0.056 0.051 0.060 0.060 0.065 0.060 0.065 0.065 0.059 0.060 0.050 0.061 0.059 0.059 23 23 0.052 0.046 0.053 0.053 0.056 0.051 0.061 0.062 0.053 0.054 0.046 0.056 0.054 0.054 24 24 0.050 0.044 0.048 0.048 0.049 0.045 0.053 0.053 0.047 0.050 0.044 0.050 0.048 0.048 0.049 0.044 0.047 0.047 0.047 0.043 0.048 0.049 0.045 0.049 0.044 0.048 0.047 0.047 Weekends and Holidays Weekends and Holidays Columns: Hours Columns: Hours Rows: Months ** Rows: Months ** 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 Hourly Average * Hourly Average * Average Average 0.056 0.056 0.050 0.050 0.051 0.051 0.038 0.038 0.044 0.044 0.051 0.051 0.050 0.050 0.054 0.054 0.073 0.073 0.052 0.052 0.065 0.065 0.059 0.059 0.054 1 1 2 2 0.050 0.045 0.049 0.037 0.042 0.047 0.043 0.043 0.048 0.044 0.055 0.051 0.046 0.046 3 3 0.049 0.045 0.049 0.037 0.042 0.047 0.043 0.043 0.048 0.044 0.055 0.050 0.046 0.046 4 4 0.049 0.045 0.048 0.037 0.042 0.047 0.042 0.043 0.048 0.044 0.055 0.050 0.046 0.046 5 5 0.049 0.045 0.048 0.037 0.042 0.047 0.042 0.043 0.048 0.044 0.055 0.050 0.046 0.046 6 6 0.050 0.046 0.048 0.037 0.042 0.046 0.041 0.043 0.048 0.044 0.055 0.050 0.046 0.046 7 7 0.051 0.046 0.048 0.034 0.027 0.034 0.035 0.039 0.046 0.045 0.056 0.051 0.043 0.043 8 8 0.069 0.045 0.043 0.024 0.030 0.023 0.031 0.036 0.039 0.037 0.053 0.050 0.040 0.040 9 9 0.046 0.040 0.034 0.031 0.030 0.035 0.037 0.038 0.040 0.037 0.045 0.046 0.038 0.038 1 0 1 0 0.042 0.034 0.028 0.028 0.033 0.040 0.038 0.039 0.041 0.038 0.048 0.040 0.038 0.038 1 1 1 1 0.043 0.039 0.029 0.025 0.032 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.042 0.039 0.048 0.044 0.038 0.038 1 2 1 2 0.038 0.038 0.028 0.028 0.032 0.040 0.041 0.041 0.044 0.039 0.045 0.043 0.038 0.038 1 3 1 3 0.037 0.033 0.014 0.017 0.032 0.040 0.042 0.041 0.045 0.040 0.043 0.043 0.035 0.035 1 4 1 4 0.034 0.037 0.020 0.016 0.030 0.041 0.042 0.042 0.046 0.041 0.047 0.043 0.037 0.037 1 5 1 5 0.036 0.038 0.034 0.016 0.020 0.043 0.043 0.043 0.047 0.042 0.049 0.044 0.038 0.038 1 6 1 6 0.044 0.039 0.042 0.043 0.036 0.044 0.044 0.092 0.049 0.044 0.053 0.047 0.048 0.048 1 7 1 7 0.051 0.051 0.057 0.033 0.049 0.058 0.045 0.071 0.051 0.117 0.145 0.053 0.065 0.065 1 8 1 8 0.168 0.073 0.177 0.137 0.132 0.138 0.168 0.104 0.511 0.129 0.194 0.244 0.1 81 0.1 81 1 9 1 9 0.088 0.147 0.073 0.039 0.059 0.079 0.077 0.115 0.151 0.058 0.081 0.067 0.086 0.086 20 20 0.066 0.063 0.062 0.042 0.049 0.060 0.062 0.061 0.082 0.066 0.077 0.067 0.063 0.063 21 21 0.060 0.055 0.062 0.051 0.052 0.061 0.060 0.066 0.068 0.057 0.067 0.061 0.060 0.060 22 22 0.056 0.051 0.064 0.050 0.053 0.065 0.057 0.064 0.062 0.051 0.063 0.060 0.058 0.058 23 23 0.053 0.050 0.060 0.046 0.051 0.059 0.052 0.058 0.059 0.047 0.059 0.055 0.054 0.054 24 24 0.051 0.047 0.051 0.039 0.045 0.049 0.045 0.046 0.050 0.045 0.056 0.051 0.048 0.048 0.051 0.046 0.049 0.038 0.042 0.047 0.043 0.044 0.049 0.044 0.056 0.051 0.047 0.047 * Original CPUC template defined row to indicate "sums," SCE has modified it to reflect the average for each hour ** Spring Spring: Mar. May; Summer Summer: Jun. Sept.; Winter Winter: Oct. Feb. Southern California Edison 11
Distribution Fixed versus Variable costs Allocation is relevant to the peak load variable component of distribution costs Criteria Distribution Circuits 73% of the average PLL of the aggregate circuits to a B- Bank Distribution B Banks 90% of station PLL Method Compare temperature normalized load to criteria Set all load points below criteria to zero For all load points above criteria, relative peak load risk factor is determined as the ratio of load above criteria in an hour to sum of all load above criteria for each hour of the year. Southern California Edison 12
Distribution Heat Map 2014 Recorded Load 2024 Projected Load Weekdays Weekdays Weekdays Weekdays Columns: Hours Columns: Hours Rows: Months ** Rows: Months ** 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 Columns: Hours Columns: Hours Rows: Months ** Rows: Months ** 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 4 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 6 1 6 1 7 1 7 1 8 1 8 1 9 1 9 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 4 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 6 1 6 1 7 1 7 1 8 1 8 1 9 1 9 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 Weekend and Holidays Weekend and Holidays Weekend and Holidays Weekend and Holidays Columns: Hours Columns: Hours Rows: Months ** Rows: Months ** 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 Columns: Hours Columns: Hours Rows: Months ** Rows: Months ** 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 4 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 6 1 6 1 7 1 7 1 8 1 8 1 9 1 9 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 4 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 6 1 6 1 7 1 7 1 8 1 8 1 9 1 9 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 2 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 NOTES: NOTES: - Analysis reflects sample circuits from Desert, Metro, North Coast, and Orange regions. - The DG assumption is a 5kW system with 20% efficiency Southern California Edison 13
Glossary of Acronyms Acronym Definition CAISO DER DG DR EE EFC FRAC-MOO GHG LSE MEC PLEXOS PLL RPS TOU WECC California Independent System Operator Distributed Energy Resources Distributed Generation Demand Response Energy Efficiency Effective Flex Capacity Flexible Resource Adequacy Criteria Must Offer Obligation Greenhouse Gas Load Serving Entities Marginal Energy Cost Mixed Integer Programming model for marginal energy prices Planned Loading Limit Renewable Portfolio Standard Time-of-Use Western Electricity Coordinating Council Southern California Edison 14
