Transport Emission Inventories & Projections Overview
latest data on transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions, including national trends, sectoral contributions, and future projections. Understand the impact on climate change and efforts to meet emission reduction targets
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Presentation Transcript
Transport Emission Inventories & Projections Presentation to Transport Statistics Liaison Group 21st June 2016
National GHG Emissions: Inter-Annual Change 2014: 58.3 MtCO2 eq
GHG Emission Trends 1990 - 2014 A C D B E F D E F B C A
Transport GHG emissions 1990-2014 Overall emissions in 2014 are 121% above 1990 levels
Drivers in Transport Passenger Cars Diesel cars 36.7% Diesel cars 6.6%
EU Effort Sharing Decision Distance to Target Expect to exceed non-ETS annual limit in 2016/2017
Projected cumulative distance to Target for Non-ETS Sector 2013-2020
Sectoral share non ETS 2005 2030
Energy related sectors - Energy Forecasts Key macro-economic assumptions 2012 2015 2016 2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2030-2035 Average Annual % Growth +2.6% +3.4% +4.4% Annual Average 2025 5,010 2,173 GDP GNP Personal Consumption +2.5% +3.8% 0.4% +4.6% +3.6% +2.5% +1.3% +2.9% +3.4% +1.2% +1.2% +1.2% 2015 4,647 1,992 2020 4,837 2,062 2030 5,162 2,290 2035 5,314 2,412 Population ( 000) Housing stock ( 000) EUETS: Carbon 2010/tCO2 7 10 14 35 57 Carbon tax 2010/tCO2 Coal $2010/boe Oil $2010/boe Gas $2010/boe Peat /MWh 20 16.4 93.6 50.8 25 20 20.1 98.9 49.3 25 20 23.7 124.3 58.7 25 35 27.6 154.2 62.5 25 57 31.6 188.4 62.5 25 ESRI s October 2014 Quarterly Economic Commentary Coal, oil and gas prices DECC Carbon price European Commission
Energy demand Sectoral Trends Solid line = With measures scenario Dashed line = With Additional Measures scenario
Summary Will likely not meet 2020 targets (even under cumulative mechanism & with additional measures) Some evidence of breaking the link between growth and emissions in electricity generation However, economic recovery evident in emissions from transport and certain industrial sectors increases the challenge Significant challenge to meet EU2030 and National 2050 targets
