Transportation Energy Demand Forecast Updates: 2020 and 2021
This article discusses the updates and forecasts related to transportation energy demand for the years 2020 and 2021, including discussions on trends, challenges, impacts of revolutions, role of PEVs, ZEV market status, energy resilience, fueling infrastructure, clean transportation funding programs, and more. It also covers changes due to COVID-19, economic forecasts, fuel prices, demographic data, standards, emissions, scenarios, and upcoming meetings and workshops pertaining to the 2020 IEPR update.
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Presentation Transcript
Demand Analysis Working Group Transportation Energy Demand Forecast: 2020 and 2021 Updates Heidi Javanbakht April 22, 2020
WebEx Overview Everyone will be muted by default Questions/Comments Please submit questions in the comments box and we will address them after each presentation Please include your name and the slide number We will open the line after all presentations are completed for discussion 2
Scoping Order for 2020 IEPR Transportation is the focus: Evaluation of transportation trends and challenges Discussion of how 3 Revolutions could impact energy demand and emissions Role of PEVs in energy resilience Status of ZEV market Roadmap for PEV grid integration Evaluation of ZEV fueling infrastructure Role of near-ZEVs and fuels, particularly for commercial and off- road vehicles Assessment of clean transportation funding programs *Topics addressed by the Transportation Energy Demand Forecast are in green 3
Transportation Forecast Updates for 2020 IEPR Consider disruptions due to COVID-19 Economic and demographic forecasts Fuel prices American Community Survey data Incentives CAFE standards Forecast additions: NOx and GHG tailpipe emissions Exploratory scenario(s) for SCAQMD MD/HD ZEV planning Exploratory scenario for worst case PEV charging load shapes 4
Transportation Forecast Updates for 2021 IEPR Model Improvements Explore improvements to PEV charging load shapes Exploratory Scenarios More DAWG meetings to discuss these 5
Timeline for 2020 IEPR Update Transportation Forecasting Tentative DAWG meeting in late June / early July SCAQMD proposed MD/HD ZEV plan Exploratory scenarios for the 2021 IEPR Other topics that may come out of today s meeting Further DAWG meetings as needed Fuels and Transportation Division IEPR Workshops (see next slide) Demand Forecast IEPR Workshop in August IEPR Workshop late November/early December Release final IEPR in January 2021 Adopt final IEPR in February 2021 6
Tentatively Scheduled IEPR Workshops May 20 Heavy-Duty ZEV Market Status June 11 Transportation Trends and LD ZEV Market Status June 24 VGI Roadmap and Charging Programs Funding June 29 Hydrogen Market Status July 2 Near-Zero Vehicles July 7 3 Revolutions and ZE Resilience August 4 Charging Infrastructure August 19 Clean Transportation Funding Programs (All dates tentative; may be split across consecutive days) 7
Todays Agenda LDV Forecast 2020 Updates Mark Palmere LDV Forecast 2021 Updates Aniss Bahreinian Trucks Forecast 2020 and 2021 Updates Bob McBride Fuel Price Forecast Updates Ysbrand van der Werf EV Charging Load Shapes Alex Lonsdale 8
