U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook 2025 by Chad Hart - Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Cotton Analysis
Explore the U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook for 2025 presented by Professor Chad Hart, covering key details on corn, soybean, wheat, and cotton supply and use data. This comprehensive analysis includes information on area planted, yield, production, imports, exports, season-average prices, and more. Stay informed on market trends and projections in the agricultural sector.
Download Presentation
Please find below an Image/Link to download the presentation.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author. If you encounter any issues during the download, it is possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.
You are allowed to download the files provided on this website for personal or commercial use, subject to the condition that they are used lawfully. All files are the property of their respective owners.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author.
E N D
Presentation Transcript
Ag Market Outlook May 28, 2025 Chad Hart Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911
U.S. Corn Supply and Use Marketing Year (2024 = 9/1/24 to 8/31/25) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Area Planted (mil. acres) 92.9 88.2 94.6 90.6 95.3 Yield (bu./acre) 176.7 173.4 177.3 179.3 181.0 Production (mil. bu.) 15,018 13,651 15,341 14,867 15,820 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,235 1,377 1,360 1,763 1,415 Imports (mil. bu.) 24 39 28 25 25 Total Supply (mil. bu.) 16,277 15,066 16,729 16,655 17,260 Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,671 5,486 5,805 5,750 5,900 5,320 5,176 5,478 5,500 5,500 Ethanol (mil. bu.) Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,437 1,382 1,390 1,390 1,385 Exports (mil. bu.) 2,472 1,662 2,292 2,600 2,675 Total Use (mil. bu.) 14,900 13,706 14,966 15,240 15,460 Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,377 1,360 1,763 1,415 1,800 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.00 6.54 4.55 4.35 4.20 Sources: USDA-WAOB and USDA-NASS
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Marketing Year (2024 = 9/1/24 to 8/31/25) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Area Planted (mil. acres) 87.2 87.5 83.6 87.1 83.5 Yield (bu./acre) 51.7 49.6 50.6 50.7 52.5 Production (mil. bu.) 4,464 4,270 4,162 4,366 4,340 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 257 274 264 342 350 Imports (mil. bu.) 16 25 21 25 20 Total Supply (mil. bu.) 4,737 4,569 4,447 4,734 4,710 Crush (mil. bu.) 2,204 2,212 2,285 2,420 2,490 Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 107 114 125 114 110 Exports (mil. bu.) 2,152 1,980 1,695 1,850 1,815 4,463 4,305 4,105 4,384 4,415 Total Use (mil. bu.) Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 274 264 342 350 295 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 13.30 14.20 12.40 9.95 10.25 Sources: USDA-WAOB and USDA-NASS
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Marketing Year (2024 = 6/1/24 to 5/31/25) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Area Planted (mil. acres) 46.7 45.8 49.6 46.1 45.4 Yield (bu./acre) 44.3 46.5 48.7 51.2 51.6 Production (mil. bu.) 1,646 1,650 1,804 1,971 1,921 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 845 674 570 696 841 Imports (mil. bu.) 96 122 138 150 120 Total Supply (mil. bu.) 2,588 2,446 2,512 2,818 2,882 Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 88 74 85 120 120 58 68 62 62 62 Seed (mil. bu.) Food (mil. bu.) 971 972 961 975 977 Exports (mil. bu.) 796 762 707 820 800 Total Use (mil. bu.) 1,913 1,876 1,815 1,977 1,959 Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 674 570 696 841 923 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 7.63 8.83 6.96 5.50 5.30 Sources: USDA-WAOB and USDA-NASS
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use Marketing Year (2024 = 8/1/24 to 7/31/25) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Area Planted (mil. acres) 11.21 13.75 10.23 11.18 9.87 Yield (lb./acre) 820 953 899 886 832 Production (mil. bales) 17.52 14.47 12.07 14.41 14.50 Beg. Stocks (mil. bales) 3.65 4.60 4.65 3.15 4.80 Imports (mil. bales) 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 Total Supply (mil. bales) 21.18 19.07 16.72 17.57 19.31 Domestic Use (mil. bales) 2.55 2.05 1.85 1.70 1.70 Exports (mil. bales) 14.05 12.45 11.75 11.10 12.50 Total Use (mil. bales) 16.60 14.50 13.60 12.80 14.20 4.60 4.65 3.15 4.80 5.20 Ending Stocks (mil. bales) Season-Average Price (cents/lb.) 91.4 84.8 76.1 63.0 62.0 Sources: USDA-WAOB and USDA-NASS
Intended Acreage Shifts Source: USDA-NASS
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB
World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB
World Cotton Production Source: USDA-WAOB
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Cotton Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB
Corn Grind for Ethanol Based on EIA data
Biodiesel vs Renewable Diesel Based on EIA data
Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 5/27/2025
Current Soybean Futures Source: CME Group, 5/27/2025
Current KC Wheat Futures Source: CME Group, 5/27/2025
Current Cotton Futures Source: ICE, 5/27/2025
Major Crop Acreage Sources: USDA-NASS and USDA Long-term Projections
Crop Shifts Sources: USDA-NASS and USDA Long-term Projections
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: https://faculty.sites.iastate.edu/chart/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/
Iowa State University is an equal opportunity provider. For the full non-discrimination statement or accommodation inquiries, go to www.extension.iastate.edu/legal. Iowa State University ofrece igualdad de oportunidades. Para ver la declaraci n completa de no discriminaci n o para consultas de acomodaci n, siga a este vinculo: www.extension.iastate.edu/legal.
