U.S. Economic Growth Backcasting and Productivity Analysis
Explore the backcasting study on the BEA/BLS integrated industry-level production account from 1987 to 2016, focusing on sources of U.S. economic growth. The study extends existing production accounts, emphasizing multifactor productivity models and capital contributions to value-added growth by sector. Gain insights into historical data integration, ICT expansion, and the analysis of aggregate contributions to economic sectors.
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Presentation Transcript
Backcasting the BEA/BLS Integrated Industry-level Production Account and the Sources of U.S. Economic Growth between 1987 and 2016 Corby Garner, Justin Harper, Tom Howells III, Matt Russell, and Jon Samuels World KLEMS June 4-5, 2018
Overview Extension of previously published Production Accounts by industry consistent with the U.S. National Accounts. (Fleck, Rosenthal, Russell, Strassner, and Usher, 2012) Incorporate data from 1987-1997 compatible with the previously published and recently updated 1998-2016 measures of 63 industries using recently converted historical Input Output Tables. Allows for a framework of analysis on the current productivity slowdown by extending the current work by another decade to better archive the ICT expansion of the late 1990 s and other sectors contributions. Work is experimental and initial results are still being evaluated.
Multifactor Productivity Model Multifactor Productivity Model ??? = ??? ?? ??? ?? ??? ?? ??? ?? ??? ?? ??? Where : MFP Multifactor Productivity Q Real Output I Inputs in production (Capital (K), Labor (L), Energy (E), Materials (M), Services(S)) The input weights are two year averages of the cost shares for each input in years t and t 1: ???+???+???+???+???=Inputs ???????????? ?iI ????? ????????????= ?i and ??=1 2??,?+1 2??,? 1
Capital Perpetual inventory method means the previous versions of the Production account had Productive Stocks for the earlier time period. In order to bridge the 1987-1997 years, several pieces were needed from the historical Input-Output tables- Gross operating surplus, motor vehicle and property taxes, corporate profits, other gross operating surplus, various compensation pieces and others. Productive capital stocks were built from data from the BEA Fixed Asset Accounts to compute capital services by 86 assets for 63 industries on a NAICS basis which were then aggregated to software, IT, entertainment originals, R&D, and other.
Capital Contributions to Aggregate Value Added Growth by Sector 1987 Capital Contributions to Aggregate Value Added Growth by Sector 1987- -2016 2016 2007-2016 Minus 1987- 1995 1987-2016 1987-1995 1995-2000 2000-2007 2007-2016 Aggregate Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting, Mining Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities Construction Manufacturing Trade Information Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental and Leasing Other Services Government 1.19 1.25 1.90 1.35 0.61 -0.63 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.14 0.17 0.13 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.13 -0.01 0.05 0.05 0.26 0.31 0.22 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.22 0.13 0.03 0.04 -0.01 0.11 0.08 0.09 0.03 0.00 -0.02 -0.06 -0.09 -0.04 0.42 0.16 0.10 0.49 0.16 0.09 0.70 0.24 0.08 0.52 0.20 0.13 0.11 0.08 0.09 -0.38 -0.07 -0.01
Labor Hours Where available, BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES) data on a NAICS basis were used to populate 1987-1997 period. When not available, employment conversion ratios using a published bridge provided by the CES program were used on the CES components of the labor hours measures. An employment bridge table was constructed for the self employed estimates on a SIC basis using the three year Current Population Survey Extract files which are dual coded on a Census SIC and Census NAICS basis.
Labor Composition Labor input accounts for labor hours as well as substitution between different types of workers Workers are stratified by sex, 8 age groups, 6 levels of educational attainment, and payrolled vs. self-employed across 63 NAICS industries Matrices of hours and income are recorded for these groups from the 1990 and 2000 Census 1% PUMS files For all other years, these initial matrices are balanced to a series of marginal totals developed from the CPS ASEC Supplement Balanced matrices are scaled to BEA and BLS controls for total employment, total hours, and total compensation
Labor Composition Industries in the 1990 Census PUMS and 1987-2002 CPS source data were collected on an SIC-basis Previous estimates for 1998-2002 used a static SIC-to-NAICS bridge from the BLS CES program New estimates for 1987-1997 incorporate time-varying weights for manufacturing industries based on Census of Manufacturing microdata as developed in Bayard (2003) The new bridge was also applied to BEA SIC-based scaling controls for total employment, total hours, and total compensation Special handling for 1987-1991 CPS educational attainment questions followed technique described in Jaegar (1997)
Gross Output, Value Added, Intermediate Inputs Historical benchmark input-output tables 1947, 1958, 1963, 1967, 1972, 1977, 1982, 1987, 1992 Snapshot in time Not a time series
Gross Output, Value Added, Intermediate Inputs Align disconnected benchmark tables Incorporate conceptual differences Capitalization of software, R&D, entertainment originals, and residential housing transfer costs Other statistical and conceptual improvements Update industry classification Convert from SIC to NAICS
Gross Output, Value Added, Intermediate Inputs Interpolate between benchmark pillars Census survey data Annual make-use tables Gross output by industry PCE and PFI data
Gross Output, Value Added, Intermediate Inputs Energy/materials/services decomposition Not enough detail for direct assignment 65 industries x 75 goods/services Detailed assignments from current time series ~800 industries x ~5,000 goods/services Calculate EMS ratios from 1997 use table Apply cell-level 1997 ratios to historical tables
Industry Sources of Aggregate Growth, 1987- 2016 Average annual Percentage Point Contribution
Contact Info Contact Info Corby Garner, Justin Harper, Tom Howells, Matt Russell, and Jon Samuels Joint BEA/BLS collaborative Project 202-691-7481 Russell.matthew@bls.gov 202-691-5655 Garner.corby@bls.gov 301-273-9586 Thomas.Howells@bea.gov 301-273-9020 Jon.Samuels@bea.gov 301-278-9464 Justin.Harper@bea.gov
Gross Output Growth Model ???? ?? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ?? = + + + + + ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? where Q = Gross Output K = Capital Input L = Labor Input E = Intermediate Energy Inputs M = Intermediate Material Inputs S = Intermediate Purchased Services Inputs t = Time
