Understanding Aging Trends and Long-Term Care Needs in Minnesota

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Explore the rising number of older adults in Minnesota and the implications for long-term care services. Discover the factors influencing the demand for elderly care, the costs involved, and the workforce required to meet these needs in the future.

  • Minnesota
  • Aging Trends
  • Long-Term Care
  • Elderly Services
  • Demographic Shifts
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  1. MINNESOTA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES MINNESOTA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AGING AND LONG AGING AND LONG- -TERM CARE COMMITTEE TERM CARE COMMITTEE Susan Brower, Minnesota State Demographer Susan Brower, Minnesota State Demographer January 14, 2015 January 14, 2015

  2. TOPICS FOR TODAY 1. Aging Trends in Minnesota 2. Factors Impacting the Need for Long-Term Care (LTC) 3. Costs of LTC and income of older adults in MN 4. Labor force needed to care for aging residents

  3. NUMBER OF MNS OLDER ADULTS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands) Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands) 91 85 71 67 55 47 - - - - - 1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Minnesota State Demographic Center

  4. NUMBER OF MNS OLDER ADULTS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands) Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands) 335 285 97 91 85 71 67 66 56 55 47 1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Minnesota State Demographic Center

  5. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MN HISTORY: MORE 65+ THAN SCHOOL-AGE BY 2020 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 18-24 65+ 5-17 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Source: U.S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center

  6. DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS WILL CHANGE DEMAND FOR PUBLIC SERVICES General Fund Expenditures 2014-2015 Within Health & Human Services Medical Assistance Expenditures: 25% of GF spending (8.5 billion) Medical Assistance Expenditures for the Elderly and Disabled: 16% of GF spending (5.5 billion) MA expenditures include basic care, long-term care waivers and long-term institutional care All other areas 19% K-12 Education 41% Higher Education 8% Health & Human Services 31% Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2013. House Research, Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012

  7. WHAT FACTORS IMPACT THE NEED FOR LONG- TERM CARE (LTC)? Demographic: Age & Gender Health status Disability Living arrangements

  8. NEED FOR LONG-TERM CARE IS SUBSTANTIAL AFTER AGE 85 Source: Stone, 2000

  9. 70% OF OLDER ADULTS NEED LONG-TERM CARE Estimated Years of Long Estimated Years of Long- -Term Care Need After Term Care Need After Turning Age 65 Age 65 Turning 31% 20% 20% 17% 12% None 1 year or less 1-2 years 2-5 years More than 5 years Source: Kemper, Komisar and Alecxih, 2006.

  10. OLDER ADULTS LIVING IN INSTITUTIONS MINNESOTA 2010 20% 15% Men Women 10% 5% 0% 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Source: Tabulated by the MN State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series.

  11. MN HAS REDUCED THE NUMBER OF RESIDENTS LIVING IN NURSING HOMES Percent change in nursing home Percent change in nursing home population by decade population by decade Minnesota U.S. Population in Nursing Population in Nursing Homes Homes 1980: 40,000 1990: 43,000 2000: 38,000 2010: 30,000 29% 8% 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 -2% -14% -20% -21% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  12. HEALTHY LIFE EXPECTANCY AT 65, 2007-2009 At age 65, the average Minnesotan will live an additional 20 years. 15 of those years will be disability-free, on average. Source: Centers for Disease Control, 2013

  13. 2/3 OF ADULTS RECEIVING LONG-TERM CARE ARE IN FAIR OR POOR HEALTH Percent Reporting Own Health Status as Fair or Poor Percent Reporting Own Health Status as Fair or Poor Adults with Long-Term Care Needs Other Adults 66% 65% 21% 7% 18-64 65+ Source: Health Policy Institute, George Washington University. 2000 National Health Interview Survey.

  14. HEALTH OUTCOMES 2014 A index of self- rated health and life expectancy MN s healthiest counties are concentrated in the south

  15. AGING BRINGS HIGHER RATES OF DISABILITY Percent with an Percent with an independent living living disability by age disability by age 2008 2008- -2012 independent- - Percent with a self Percent with a self- -care disability by age disability by age 2008 2008- -2012 care 2012 2012 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% MN US MN US 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 18-64 65-74 75-84 85+ 18-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Source: Tabulated by the MN State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. Includes only the civilian, non-institutionalized population

  16. PREVALENCE OF DISABILITY DECLINING SLOWLY, AGE PATTERN REMAINS Disability limiting independent living Disability limiting self-care Source: Crimmons, et al 2009. Estimates are for the U.S.

  17. RATES OF DISABILITY AMONG OLDER ADULTS Source: mncompass.org

  18. MN Counties with the greatest number of MN Counties with the greatest number of older adults (Age 65+) by living older adults (Age 65+) by living arrangement arrangement 29% OF OLDER ADULTS (AGE 65+) LIVE ALONE; Hennepin Ramsey Dakota Anoka St. Louis Washington Olmsted Stearns Wright Otter Tail Crow Wing 200,000 IN MN Scott Itasca Carver Rice 0 50,000 100,000 In household, alone 150,000 In household, not alone In Group Quarters Source: 2008-2012 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau

  19. LONG-TERM CARE COSTS IN MINNESOTA Average Daily Nursing Home Rate Private Room Average Daily Nursing Home Rate Semi- private Room Average Monthly Cost in Assisted Living Facility Adult Day Care Daily Rate Home Health Aide Average Hourly Rate Homemaker Services Average Hourly Rate $234 $210 $3,316* $75 $25 $22 $85,775/ annual $76,650/ annual $39,792/ annual $27,375/ annual $20,000/ annual Est. Est. $20,000/ annual *Not all-inclusive; additional charges for home care services. Source: Genworth 2012 Cost of Care Survey, Genworth Financial

  20. WHO PAYS FOR LONG TERM CARE IN MINNESOTA ? (2010) Private Insurance/Other 7% Medicaid 35% Out-of-Pocket 26% Medicare 32% Source: MN Department of Human Services, 2010

  21. OF U.S. ADULTS NEEDING LTC, ONLY 22% RECEIVE FORMAL (PAID) CARE

  22. PLANS TO PAY FOR LONG-TERM CARE MN BABY BOOMERS, 2010 Source: Transform 2010 Survey, Minnesota Department of Human Services

  23. WHAT IS MIDDLE INCOME? Difficult to come up with a meaningful number for middle class or middle income The middle 20% of all MN households with a householder age 40+ has income between $44,000 and $68,000 But there is wide variation, especially when household size is considered Source: MN State Demographic Center analysis of ipums data, 2007-2011 American Community Survey

  24. MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME DECLINES WITH AGE Median household income by age of householder Median household income by age of householder Minnesota, 2007 Minnesota, 2007- -2011 2011 $71,912 $69,368 $53,070 $34,456 $22,889 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ Source: MN State Demographic Center analysis of ipums data, 2007-2011 American Community Survey

  25. MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 One Two Three or more $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $- 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ Source: MN State Demographic Center analysis of ipums data, 2007-2011 American Community Survey

  26. TWIN CITIES, ROCHESTER OLDER ADULTS: RELATIVELY HIGH MEDIAN INCOMES

  27. NATIONALLY, OF PEOPLE BUYING LONG- TERM CARE INSURANCE HAVE INCOMES OF $75,000+

  28. AVAILABILITY OF WORKERS TO CARE FOR AGING POPULATION: DARKER AREAS WILL STRUGGLE MORE 20% = 5 working-age adult for every older adult 33%=3 working-age adults for every older adult

  29. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MN HISTORY: MORE 65+ THAN SCHOOL-AGE BY 2020 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 18-24 65+ 5-17 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Source: U.S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center

  30. MN.GOV/DEMOGRAPHY TWITTER: @MN_STATEDATA

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