Understanding Flood Recurrence and Monitoring Techniques
Learn about the concept of flood recurrence, the probabilities of 100-year and 500-year floods, and how monitoring discharge helps determine flood recurrence. Explore the statistical likelihood of significant flood events happening over different time intervals.
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Unit 5.2 In-Class Activity C. Flood recurrence. Mark Abolins, Middle Tennessee State University This work was funded by the National Science Foundation through grant #2013338, Teaching with Investigation and Design in Science (TIDeS). The opinions, findings, conclusions, and recommendations expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the NSF. 1
A 100-year flood has a 1% probability of occurring in any given year. Two 100-year floods can happen in two consecutive years, but the probability of that is low. There is a 26% (approximately 1 in 4) chance that a 100-year flood will happen during any 30-year interval. % chance of flooding in a given year % chance of flooding over 30 years Flood event 100-year flood 1% 26% Credit: Brenna Buck / Penn State. Creative Commons 500-year flood 0.02% 6%
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and other organizations continuously monitor discharge at gaging stations along many rivers and streams. Discharge is used to determine recurrence. Recurrence is the average number of years expected between floods of a given magnitude, and it is calculated by listing all of the floods that have ever occurred and ranking them from the largest to the smallest. Discharge relative to average flow. 1/15/24 3
