Understanding the Demographic Winter in Maine
Learn about the fiscal costs and implications of Maine's demographic winter, where declining birth rates and an aging population are leading to significant demographic shifts. Explore the causes and effects of this phenomenon through charts and data analysis.
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Presentation Transcript
The Fiscal Costs of Maines Demographic Winter J. SCOTT MOODY CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER THE MAINE HERITAGE POLICY CENTER
Demographic WinterThe Movie www.DemographicWinter.com
What is Demographic Winter? A country needs a birthrate of 2.13 children just to keep population stable. In Europe it is 1.3, Russia it is 1.17, and Japan 1.25 Russia is already losing over 750,000 people per year and the total population of 140 million will fall by one-third by 2050 Thus, a declining number of births and consequent shrinking number of children is the first sign of Demographic Winter
Demographic Winter has Arrived in Maine 1.18 Chart 1 18% Maine's Population By Age Cohort July 1, 2000 to July 1, 2011 1.13 1.08 6% Index Value 1.03 0.98 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year, as of July 1 2010 2011 0.93 -11% Under 18 years 18 to 64 years 65 years and over 0.88 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau and The Maine Heritage Policy Center
Cause of Maines Demographic Winter 17,500 Chart 2 Maine's Births and Deaths July 1, 1991 to July 1, 2011 16,500 15,500 14,500 People 13,500 12,500 11,500 10,500 2009 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau and The Maine Heritage Policy Center Births Deaths Year, as of July 1
Cause of Maines Demographic Winter 6,000 Chart 3 Rumford Maine's Net Natural (Births minus Deaths) July 1, 1991 to July 1, 2011 5,000 4,000 3,000 Grand Lake Stream Plantation People 2,000 1,000 0 1991 2004 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau and The Maine Heritage Policy Center Year, as of July 1
Cause of Maines Demographic Winter 10,000 Chart 4 Cape Elizabeth Maine's Net Domestic Migration July 1, 1991 to July 1, 2011 8,000 6,000 Highland Plantation 4,000 2,000 People 0 (2,000) (4,000) (6,000) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau and The Maine Heritage Policy Center Year, as of July 1
Cause of Maines Demographic Winter Chart 5 1,330,000 Maine's Population July 1, 1991 to July 1, 2011 1,310,000 1,290,000 Population 1,270,000 1,250,000 1,230,000 1992 2009 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau and The Maine Heritage Policy Center Year, as of July 1
It Gets Worse at the County-Level Natural Population Change In 2011 11 counties, in red, had 775 more deaths than births 5 counties, in green, had 995 more births than deaths State-wide = 180
It Gets Worse at the County-Level Domestic Migration In 2011 10 counties, in red, had lost 1,781 people 6 counties, in green, gained 1,853 people State-wide = 72
It Gets Worse at the County-Level Total Population Change In 2011 11 counties, in red, lost 1,513 people 5 counties, in green, gained 2,322 people State-wide = 809
Economic Costs On the margin, the shift from population growth to population decline is a complete 180 degrees . . . Businesses can no longer expect to gain new customers Businesses can longer expect to keep existing customers As such, businesses face a double-whammy losing both 1 potential and 1 existing customer Shrinking revenue is an economic depression
Fighting Maines Demographic Winter Maine must become a strong in-migrant state again If the income tax is going to suffer the most, policymakers should proactively eliminate it No income tax helps businesses and families New Hampshire proves the point with a much higher level of in-migration over the last two decades (69,487 vs. 23,948) and, consequently, a higher rate a natural population growth (3,017 vs. 180 in 2011).
