Understanding Trade Data and Value Chain Insights

What is Trade (data)(base)? What for? Markie Muryawan UN Statistics Division / muryawan@un.org 1

Data What are the other IPPs? 2025 System of National Accounts: Data as an asset They need to be valued and measured and included in the GDP Data is part of Intellectual Property Products (IPPs) can be sold/bought outright or licensed for use, distribute or reproduce In other words, data is valuable Data is a product; as such, they are added to the Central Product Classification (CPC) maintained by the UN Statistics Division CPC covers all produced nonfinancial assets (including goods and services) CPC code 837 for data and data compilation A recognition for us who work (in broad terms) directly with data Information content that is produced by accessing and observing phenomena, and recording and storing information elements from these phenomena in a digital format and that provides an economic benefit when used in productive activities. (2025 SNA 22.22)

Data value chain Assuming there is a temperature and humidity sensor in this room. It records the temp and humidity regularly. How can you map the sensor data to the data value chain on the left? What insights can we obtain? (Mitchell, Ker, & Lesher, 2022)

Trade Depending on the context, trade is usually assumed to be international trade Broadly defined as an exchange of goods and services across international borders Common observable phenomena which can be captured as follows: Flow: Exports and Imports Country: Origin and Destination Enterprises: Exporting and Importing Companies Products: Goods and Services Mode of Transport: Air, Sea, Land Measure: Value and Quantity Trade agreements: Tariff, Quotas, Other Barriers Date/Time of Recording Is an illegal movement crossing a border a trade? Do we record it?

Trade Statistics We focus on the goods part as this is our topic this week International manual on trade statistics in goods: IMTS (International Merchandise Trade Statistics) Concepts and Definitions (current edition 2010 revision to edition 2026 is currently being undertaken) in short, IMTS 2010 The scope of international merchandise trade statistics: Recording of goods which add to or subtract from the stock of material resources of a country by entering (imports) or leaving (exports) its economic territory This is the basis for comparable trade statistics across the countries. Note: BPM (Balance of Payments Manual) is also used to compile trade in goods and services (current account). The BPM focuses on the change of ownership between residents and non-residents, whereas the IMTS focuses on physical border crossing. The differences are outlined in IMTS 2010 Annex F

Trade Data Value Chain (simplified version) Let s go back to the data value chain and apply it to the trade Observable phenomena Data database Insight Customs declarations Ships tracking sensors Border monitoring and surveys Shipping / air cargo manifest Customs database Trade database Ships tracking database Logistical database Unit value database Trade balance E-commerce in trade Imports dependence Impact of disruption in shipping/air cargo Goods crossing the border Movement of ships into a port Weather conditions AI in data analysis AI in data production AI in data creation

Global Trade Database(s) There are several (global) trade databases that follow the broader definition of cross-border exchanges of goods UNSD compiles UN Comtrade the official repository of IMTS since the 1960s! The data variables, in general, consist of Frequency: monthly or annual Reference period Trade flow: export and imports Product classification utilizing a Harmonized System (WCO) or other disaggregated classification systems Country of origin for imports Country of destination for exports Trade Value and Quantity The size of the data is relatively large. It requires knowledge to handle those volumes and/or data analytics tools. More and more use of AI, such as ChatGPT, to obtain the insight

Potential use of Trade Data and Statistics In own trade data compilation Compare the data reported by trading partners notably for quality checking Use the global unit value for checking and estimating quantity information Microdata exchange improving accuracy and increasing transparency, especially on transit trade For analysis (too many to list, but some are as follows) Trade policy formulation and economic planning Market Analysis Monitoring trade agreement Measuring economic performance Monitoring global value chains Infrastructure needs Commodity balances Impact of trade on sustainability Impact of trade on social and well-being The forthcoming 2nd Manual on Principal Indicators on Business and Trade Statistics (2025) will contain some useful trade indicators More value added by combining trade with other datasets, such as investment, jobs, enterprises, production

Use Case: Monitoring Unit Value ($/kg) Imports Unit Value ($/kg) of HS 1006.30 "Semi-milled or wholly milled rice" 5 4.5 CARICOM and SPC are the mystery regions. Which ones which? 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 202301 202302 202303 202304 202305 202306 202307 202308 202309 202310 202311 202312 202401 202402 202403 202404 202405 202406 202407 202408 Global Mystery Region A Mystery Region B UN Comtrade, tariff line data

Use Case: Using chatGPT

Summary take away points Data has value, and it can be used in productive activity, including by non-market sector (such as government) This workshop would give you many examples of these Data is organized into databases, and they are aimed to make it easy for retrieval and analysis by men or machines Tons of tools are available. Some tools provide raw data, and others provide insight The best is to match your use case (what do you want to achieve with the data) with the tools Beware the limitations of data and its tools We have been recording trade data for a very long time Granular data are generally available, but be mindful of data gaps Machines are now consuming the data that we produce Trade data can be combined with other sources to increase its relevance Such as with Business Registers to generate a new indicator of Trade by Enterprise Characteristics

Thank you