Understanding WorkFirst Performance Measures and Statutes

WorkFirst Performance Measures WorkFirst Performance Measures Fourth Quarter 2023 Produced on October 20, 2023

State and Federal Statutes Governing WorkFirst Performance Measures State statute calls for WorkFirst performance measures for use in program evaluation (RCW 74.08A.400 & 74.08A.410). Measures suggested in statute include: Program exits Employment, job retention, and earnings Performance measures by contractor/partner must be reported quarterly (RCW 74.08A.410) Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (H.R. 3746) requires states to report metrics related to employment and earnings after program exit 2

Performance Measures for Families and Adults Exiting WorkFirst 3

WorkFirst Families - Reasons for Exit July 2016 June 2023 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mar-2023 Sep-2016 Mar-2017 Mar-2018 Nov-2018 Mar-2019 Mar-2020 Mar-2021 Mar-2022 Sep-2017 Sep-2018 Sep-2019 Sep-2020 Sep-2021 Sep-2022 Jul-2016 Nov-2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017 Nov-2017 Jan-2018 Jul-2018 Jan-2019 Jul-2019 Nov-2019 Jan-2020 Jul-2020 Nov-2020 Jan-2021 Jul-2021 Nov-2021 Jan-2022 Jul-2022 Nov-2022 Jan-2023 May-2017 May-2018 May-2019 May-2020 May-2021 May-2022 May-2023 Exit Month Exceeded Earned Income Limit (RC 334) Other Income (RC 324, 331, 507) Requested Closure (RC 557) All Other Closure Reasons Note: Exit is defined as case closure followed by three months with no TANF/SFA receipt. Exits are measured at the household or assistance unit level. Only households with adult recipients participate in WorkFirst. The last month that the household received a TANF/SFA issuance is the exit month. The percentages in each month add up to 100%. The spike in Other Income exits from March 2020 to September 2021 is due to pandemic Unemployment Insurance benefits; the June 2023 spike in All Other Closure Reasons reflects the first month that the 60-month time limit was enforced after the pandemic. Reason codes (RCs) are used to explain why cases close. Source: ESA-EMAPS using the ACES Data Warehouse as of October 2023 4

WorkFirst Families - Number Exiting Due to Earnings July 2021 June 2023 759 730 706 679 677 676 673 634 629 610 570 557 533 526 524 490 486 474 468 447 403 396 337 328 Mar-2022 Oct-2022 Mar-2023 Sep-2021 Feb-2022 Sep-2022 Feb-2023 Oct-2021 Jun-2022 Jun-2023 Jul-2021 Nov-2021 Jan-2022 Apr-2022 Jul-2022 Aug-2022 Nov-2022 Jan-2023 Apr-2023 May-2022 May-2023 Aug-2021 Dec-2021 Dec-2022 Exit Month Note: Exit is defined as case closure followed by three months with no TANF/SFA receipt. Exits are measured at the household or assistance unit level. Only households with adult recipients participate in WorkFirst. The last month that the household received a TANF/SFA issuance is the exit month. Exiting due to earnings is defined as an exit with a 334 Exceeded Earned Income Limit reason code. Source: ESA-EMAPS using the ACES Data Warehouse as of October 2023 5

WorkFirst Adults - Employed at Exit Exit Quarter and First Quarter after Exit 6,000 70% 57.6% Q2 2019 55.9% Q3 2016 51.2% Q4 2022 60% 5,000 44.2% Q1 2021 50% 4,000 4,246 3,923 3,817 3,761 40% 3,659 # Employed % Employed 3,518 3,375 3,346 3,331 3,323 3,322 3,309 3,000 3,152 3,129 3,082 3,008 30% 2,859 2,836 2,784 2,622 2,473 2,412 2,410 2,378 2,326 2,000 2,226 20% 1,000 10% 0 0% Q3 2016 Q4 Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2019 Exit Quarter (Calendar Year) Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022 Q2 Q3 Q4 Note: Exit is defined as at least one month with a TANF/SFA issuance followed by at least three months with no TANF/SFA issuance. The exit quarter includes the last month of TANF/SFA receipt. For percent employed, the denominator is the number of adults who exited TANF/SFA during the listed quarter; the numerator is the number of those exiting adults who had any employment recorded in the Unemployment Insurance (UI) system in either the exit quarter or the quarter after exit. Source: ESA-EMAPS using the ACES Data Warehouse as of October 2023 and ESD s UI wage data 6

WorkFirst Adults - Employment & Earnings Second Quarter after Exit 49.5% Q2 2019 $10,000 60% 44.2% Q3 2022 45.4% Q3 2016 50% 37.3% Q3 2020 $8,000 Median Quarterly Earnings 40% $6,746 $6,569 $6,553 $6,000 % Employed $5,864 $5,815 $5,551 $5,542 30% $5,367 $5,258 $5,235 $5,197 $5,195 $5,079 $4,875 $4,873 $4,852 $4,757 $4,731 $4,608 $4,545 $4,525 $4,000 $4,399 $4,375 $4,220 $4,111 20% $2,000 10% $0 0% Q3 2016 Q4 Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2019 Exit Quarter (Calendar Year) Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022 Q2 Q3 Note: Exit is defined as at least one month with a TANF/SFA issuance followed by at least three months with no TANF/SFA issuance. The exit quarter includes the last month of TANF/SFA receipt. For percent employed, the denominator is the number of adults who exited TANF/SFA during the listed quarter; the numerator is the number of those exiting adults who had any employment recorded in the Unemployment Insurance (UI) system in the second quarter after exit. Median earnings are based on earnings recorded in the UI system in the second quarter after exit. Those with no earnings in the quarter are excluded. Source: ESA-EMAPS using the ACES Data Warehouse as of October 2023 and ESD s UI wage data 7

WorkFirst Adults - Employment Retention & Earnings Fourth Quarter after Exit 83.0% Q3 2021 77.1% $10,000 100% Median Quarterly Earnings 80.6% Q3 2016 70.8% Q2 2019 90% % Retained Employment Q1 2022 $8,000 80% 70% $7,389 $7,386 $7,340 $7,125 $7,007 $6,933 $6,844 $6,789 $6,000 60% $6,442 $6,330 $6,161 $6,120 $5,901 $5,895 $5,891 $5,765 $5,624 $5,628 $5,569 50% $5,494 $5,390 $5,314 $5,038 $4,000 40% 30% $2,000 20% 10% $0 0% Q3 2016 Q4 Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2019 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022 Exit Quarter (Calendar Year) Note: Exit is defined as at least one month with a TANF/SFA issuance followed by at least three months with no TANF/SFA issuance. The exit quarter includes the last month of TANF/SFA receipt. For percent retained employment, the denominator is the number of adults who exited TANF/SFA during the listed quarter and had any employment recorded in the Unemployment Insurance (UI) system in the second quarter after exit. The numerator is the number of those exiting adults who had any employment recorded in the UI system in the fourth quarter after exit. Median earnings are based on earnings recorded in the UI system in the fourth quarter after exit. Those with no earnings in the quarter are excluded. Source: ESA-EMAPS using the ACES Data Warehouse as of October 2023 and ESD s UI wage data 8

WorkFirst Adults - Exits Lasting at Least One Year July 2016 September 2022 85.5% May 2020 75.5% Jul 2016 70.6% Sep 2022 67.1% Oct 2019 Mar-2017 Sep-2017 Mar-2018 Mar-2019 Nov-2019 Mar-2020 Mar-2021 Mar-2022 Sep-2016 Sep-2018 Sep-2019 Sep-2020 Sep-2021 Sep-2022 Jul-2016 Nov-2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017 Nov-2017 Jan-2018 Jul-2018 Nov-2018 Jan-2019 Jul-2019 Jan-2020 Jul-2020 Nov-2020 Jan-2021 Jul-2021 Nov-2021 Jan-2022 Jul-2022 May-2017 May-2018 May-2019 May-2020 May-2021 May-2022 Exit Month Note: Exit is defined as at least one month with a TANF/SFA issuance followed by at least one month with no TANF/SFA issuance. The exit month is the last month of TANF/SFA receipt. The denominator is the number of adults who exited TANF/SFA in the listed month; the numerator is the number of those exiting adults who did not return to TANF/SFA for at least 12 months following that exit. Source: ESA-EMAPS using the ACES Data Warehouse as of October 2023 9

Performance Measures for Adults Exiting WorkFirst Service Pathways 10

Employment after Exiting WorkFirst Service Pathway Percent Employed in Second Quarter after Pathway Exit 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% Q3 2016 Q4 Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2019 Exit Quarter (Calendar Year) Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022 Q2 Q3 Employment Security Job Search Vocational or Postsecondary Education Community Jobs LEP Job Search Note: Exiting WorkFirst service pathway is defined as not being enrolled in the WorkFirst service pathway for three months after being enrolled for at least one month. The exit quarter includes the last month of enrollment in the WorkFirst service pathway. The denominator is the number of adults who exited that WorkFirst service pathway during the listed quarter; the numerator is the number of those exiting adults who had any employment recorded in the Unemployment Insurance (UI) system in the second quarter after exit. Source: ESA-EMAPS using the ACES Data Warehouse as of October 2023 and ESD s UI wage data 11

Quarterly Earnings after Exiting WorkFirst Service Pathway Median Quarterly Earnings in Second Quarter after Pathway Exit $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 Q3 2016 Q4 Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2019 Exit Quarter (Calendar Year) Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022 Q2 Q3 Employment Security Job Search Vocational or Postsecondary Education Community Jobs LEP Job Search Note: Exiting WorkFirst service pathway is defined as not being enrolled in the WorkFirst service pathway for three months after being enrolled for at least one month. The exit quarter includes the last month of enrollment in the WorkFirst service pathway. Median earnings are based on earnings recorded in the Unemployment Insurance (UI) system in the second quarter after exit. Those with no earnings in the quarter are excluded. Adults in LEP Job Search typically work more hours in the quarter than adults in the other three pathways. Source: ESA-EMAPS using the ACES Data Warehouse as of October 2023 and ESD s UI wage data 12

Hourly Wages after Exiting WorkFirst Service Pathway Median Hourly Wages in Second Quarter after Pathway Exit $22 $20 $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 Q3 2016 Q4 Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2019 Exit Quarter (Calendar Year) Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022 Q2 Q3 Employment Security Job Search Vocational or Postsecondary Education Community Jobs LEP Job Search State Minimum Wage Note: Exiting WorkFirst service pathway is defined as not being enrolled in the WorkFirst service pathway for three months after being enrolled for at least one month. The exit quarter includes the last month of enrollment in the WorkFirst service pathway. Median hourly wage is based on earnings and hours worked recorded in the Unemployment Insurance (UI) system in the second quarter after exit. Those with no earnings or hours worked in the quarter are excluded. State minimum wage reflects the minimum wage in effect two quarters after the quarter listed on the horizontal axis. Source: ESA-EMAPS using the ACES Data Warehouse as of October 2023 and ESD s UI wage data 13

For any additional questions, please contact: Lisa Nicoli ESA Management Analytics and Performance Statistics (EMAPS) Economic Services Administration (ESA) Department of Social and Health Services (DSHS) lisa.nicoli@dshs.wa.gov 14