Update on NPRR1230 Monitoring and Analysis for Congestion Management
Explore the latest developments in NPRR1230 regarding congestion management, including updates on South Texas Export IROLs, Shadow Price Caps, and counterfactual analysis. Learn about recent violations, rerun analyses, and proposed solutions discussed in the CMWG meeting. Stay informed on the shifting dynamics of ERCOT's operations and the implications for energy reliability and pricing.
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Presentation Transcript
NPRR1230: Monitoring and Analysis Update Congestion Management and Working Group (CMWG) Matthew Schmidt 10/14/2024
Purpose of NPRR1230 Update TAC requested periodic updates from ERCOT in terms of monitoring the impacts of NPRR1230 This presentation is the first such update, supplementing counterfactual studies performed for Summer 2023 with data analysis for South Texas Export Interconnection Reliability Operating Limits (IROLs) which were violated on 08/19/24 Note: Since NPRR1230 was implemented on 10/01/24, this presentation addresses a pre-implementation OD We are seeking discussion and suggestions from CMWG for content focus and frequency of updates moving forward 2 PUBLIC
Recap: NPRR1230 Addresses operating conditions observed in Summer 2023 for what are now the South Texas Export IROLs ERCOT was previously dependent on using High Dispatch Limit (HDL) overrides to help mitigate the constraint NPRR1230 increases the Shadow Price Cap for some IROLs Establishes a transparent method for determining a new Shadow Price Cap for an individual IROL if needed Security-Constrained Economic Dispatch (SCED) can further manage the IROLs, allowing for the use of market-based tools Control Room Operators can focus on near-scarcity conditions Updated Shadow Price Caps ($19,751/MWh) were implemented for the two South Texas Export IROLs (E_PASP, E_PATA) on 10/01/2024 3 PUBLIC
RTM Congestion on South Texas Export IROLs on August 19th, 2024 South Texas Export IROL E_PASP was violated for two SCED intervals (19:30 and 19:45) 4 PUBLIC
Counterfactual analysis w/ new SP Cap for South Texas Export IROL for violated intervals on 08/19/2024 Rerun analysis performed by increasing Shadow Price Cap on IROLs to $19,751/MWh for each interval in isolation Differs to TAC analysis since the event occurred post IROL implementation and thus does not introduce model-specific assumptions (only perturbing Shadow Price Cap value) Violation of IROL E_PASP mitigated with higher Maximum Shadow Price Cap ($19,751/MWh) Shadow Price of $13,732/MWh necessary to resolve violation. System Lambda increase of over 50% in the 19:45 SCED interval 5 PUBLIC
LMP Deltas (%) by SCED Interval and Load Zone The largest percent LMP difference observed in Load Zone CPS during SCED interval 19:45 Positive LMP difference observed in Load Zone South Suppressive impact of congestion component outweighed by increase in energy component of LMP 6 PUBLIC
Analysis Questions What kind of analysis/updates would CMWG like to see moving forward? How frequent should analysis be provided at CMWG? Event- dependent? 7 PUBLIC
