Update on Ozone Assessment 2014

The 2014 WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment Scientific Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol An update 25th Meeting of the Parties to the Protocol Bangkok, Thailand Scientific Steering Committee David Karoly (Australia) Malcolm Ko (USA) Theodore Shepherd (UK) Susan Solomon (USA) Coordinator/ Editor Chris Ennis (USA) SAP Co-chairs Ayit -L Ajavon (Togo) Paul Newman (USA) John Pyle (UK) A.R. Ravishankara (USA) Scientific Steering Committee David Karoly (Australia) Malcolm Ko (USA) Theodore Shepherd (UK) Susan Solomon (USA) Goal: Make the assessment more useful to and usable by the Parties. Make the printed copy short, easy to read, and provide much needed information for policy decisions. Side benefits: Reduce printing and shipping costs A layered publication- easily accessible at various levels Taking advantage of the technological (internet) advances October 24, 2013 25th Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok 1

Structure of the 2014 Scientific Assessment Assessment for the Decision- Making Community Assessment Foundation from the Scientific Community Decision-Relevant Information (Web and print) (Web-only) Policy-Relevant Highlights from the Chapter What We Know from Previous Assessments 2014 Chapter Scientific Summary (bullets) ODSs Science Update 1 Synthesis of the Chapters policy- relevant information Global Ozone: Past and Future Science Update 2 ~30-40 pages Policy-relevant information prepared for this assessment (Scenarios chapter, perhaps modified)shortened) Appendices: Chapter Summaries Other Supporting Detail (e.g., tables of ODPs, lifetimes, scenario details) Polar Ozone: Past and Future Science Update 3 4 Strat O3 Changes & Climate Science Update ~25 pages 5 Scenarios/Options for Policymakers Science Update Forms the foundation for scientists and program managers For the Parties to the Protocol National (Ozone) Units and managers October 24, 2013 25th Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok 2

2014 Contents: The Birds-Eye View Key ongoing issues Levels of ODS and trends Levels of ozone and its trends Our understanding of the atmospheric science What is new in science The impact of climate change on ozone layer recovery The impact of ozone layer changes on climate and its changes Key requests from the Parties to the Protocol October 24, 2013 25th Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok 3

Chapters, Lead Authors (LA), and Chapter Editors (CE) Chapter 1: Update on Ozone-Depleting Substances (ODSs) and Other Gases of Interest to the Montreal Protocol LAs: Lucy Carpenter (Univ. of York, UK); Stefan Reimann (Empa, Switzerland) CE:Andreas Engel, Germany; Steve Montzka, USA Chapter 2: Update on Global Ozone: Past, Present, and Future LAs: Steven Pawson (NASA GSFC, USA); Wolfgang Steinbrecht (Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany) CE:Vitali Fioletov (Canada); Ulrike Langematz (Germany) Chapter 3: Update on Polar Ozone: Past, Present, and Future LAs: Martin Dameris (DLR, Institut f r Physik der Atmosph re, Germany) Sophie Godin-Beekmann (LATMOS/CNRS/UVSQ/UPMC, France) CE:Judith Perlwitz (USA); Slimane Bekki (France) Chapter 4: Stratospheric Ozone Changes and Climate LAs: Julie Arblaster (Aust. Bureau of Met., Australia); Nathan Gillett (Env. Canada, Canada) CE:Lesley Gray (UK); David Thompson (USA) Chapter 5: Scenarios, Information, and Options for Policymakers LAs: Neil Harris (Cambridge Univ., UK); Don Wuebbles (Univ. of Illinois, USA) CE:Mack McFarland (USA); Guus Velders (Netherlands) October 24, 2013 25th Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok 4

The Parties Request (Decision XXIII/13) Terms of Reference for the 2014 SAP Report a. Assessment of the state of the ozone layer and its future evolution, including in respect of atmospheric changes from, for example, sudden stratospheric warming or accelerated Brewer-Dobson circulation; Evaluation of the Antarctic ozone hole and Arctic winter/spring ozone depletion and the predicted changes in these phenomena, with a particular focus on temperatures in the polar stratosphere; Evaluation of trends in the concentration in the atmosphere of ozone-depleting substances and their consistency with reported production and consumption of those substances and the likely implications for the state of the ozone layer and the atmosphere; Assessment of the interaction between the ozone layer and the atmosphere; including: i. The effect of polar ozone depletion on tropospheric climate; ii. The effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling; Description and interpretation of observed ozone changes and ultraviolet radiation, along with future projections and scenarios for those variables, taking into account among other things the expected impacts to the atmosphere; Assessment of the effects of ozone-depleting substances and other ozone-relevant substances, if any, with stratospheric influences, and their degradation products, the identification of such substances, their ozone-depletion potential and other properties; Identification of any other threats to the ozone layer b. c. d. e. f. g. October 24, 2013 25th Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok 5

Timeline Discussion Paper circulated for comments by scientific community (Feb) Lead Authors and Chapter Editors established (early Apr) Chapter author teams assembled, early preparation steps begin (early May) Draft of Chapter outlines (late May) 2013 1st meeting of Lead Authors, Cochairs, Steering Committee, Chapter Editors (June) Individual Chapter team meetings (convened by Lead Authors (July-Sep) Chapter summary bullets and outlines submitted for review (October 1, 2013) Meeting of the Parties 1st drafts of Chapters completed (30 October, 2013) Mail Review of Chapter 1st drafts begins (1 Nov) Chapter 1st drafts reviews due (15 Dec) Chapter editor summaries sent to Lead Authors (early Jan) 2nd draft of Chapters completed (early Mar) 2014 2nd meeting of Lead Authors, Cochairs, Steering Committee, Chapter Editors (April 8-10) Drafting of Assessment for Decision-Makers begins Boulder Final drafts of Chapters completed (all cited papers in press) mid-May Draft Assessment for Decision-Makers distributed to Panel Reviewers (early June) Panel Rev. Meeting [discuss and finalize Assessment for Decision-Makers] (June 23-27) 25th Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok Les Diablerets October 24, 2013 6

Acknowledgment Many thanks to Mr. Marco Gonzalez for his guidance and support Thank you for your attention October 24, 2013 Meeting of the Parties, Bangkok 7