Updates on Credit Exposure and Market Trends in February 2025
Get the latest insights into the credit exposure updates, market trends, and highlights for February 2025. Discover changes in Total Potential Exposure (TPE), discretionary collateral, issuer credit limits, and more in the energy market. Stay informed with detailed analysis and statistics from January to February 2025.
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Presentation Transcript
Credit Exposure Update Market Credit Work Group ERCOT Public February 19, 2025
Monthly Highlights: December 2024 January 2025 Market-wide average Total Potential Exposure (TPE) increased from $1.76 billion in December 2024 to $1.96 billion in January 2024 TPE increased due to higher prices and forward adjustment factors Discretionary Collateral is defined as Secured Collateral in excess of TPE,CRR Locked ACL and DAM Exposure Average Discretionary Collateral increased from $3.98 billion in December 2024 to $5.10 billion in January 2025 No unusual collateral call activity 2 PUBLIC
TPE and Forward Adjustment Factors: January 2024 January 2025 3 PUBLIC
TPE/Real-Time & Day-Ahead Daily Average Settlement Point Prices for HB_NORT:H January 2024 January 2025 4 PUBLIC
Available Credit by Type Compared to Total Potential Exposure (TPE): January 2024 January 2025 Numbers are as of month-end except for Max TPE Max TPE is the highest TPE for the corresponding month 5 PUBLIC
Issuer Credit Limits vs Total LC Amounts Per Issuer: End-January 2025 Unused Capacity based on Tangible Net Worth(US$) Issuer Limits based on Tangible Net Worth(US$) Total LC Amounts Per Issuer(US$) Tangible Net Worth(US$) Issuer Name BNP Paribas (FI) Wells Fargo (FI) Societe Generale (FI) Natixis (FI) CoBank ACB (FI) Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets PLC (FI) Bank of Nova Scotia (FI) Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (FI) Deutsche Bank AG(FI) Others (25 banks) Totals Over CL 96% 68% 59% 56% 52% 50% 44% 38% 36% 13% 25% $ 718,782,008 126,186,026,400 $ $ 750,000,000 $ 31,217,992 $ 511,228,564 132,055,000,000 $ $ 750,000,000 238,771,436 $ $ 440,890,154 63,578,169,600 $ $ 750,000,000 309,109,846 $ $ 154,410,265 17,283,074,400 $ $ 276,529,190 122,118,925 $ $ 93,450,000 11,193,000,000 $ $ 179,088,000 $ 85,638,000 $ 355,471,138 44,078,296,800 $ $ 705,252,749 349,781,611 $ $ 326,429,259 47,055,950,586 $ $ 750,000,000 423,570,741 $ $ 284,314,008 71,843,140,365 $ $ 750,000,000 465,685,992 $ $ 269,525,001 72,721,459,200 $ $ 750,000,000 480,474,999 $ $ $ 1,986,315,006 5,383,352,008 1,332,898,177,504 $ 1,970,468,114,310 $ 14,999,387,901 $ 21,410,257,840 $ 12,773,178,366 $ 15,787,011,304 $ As of January 31, 2025 There are a total of 36 banks that have issued LCs. 6 PUBLIC
Discretionary Collateral December 2024 January 2025 7 PUBLIC
Discretionary Collateral by Market Segment January 2022 - January 2025 * Discretionary Collateral adjusted to exclude short pay amounts eliminating data skew 8 PUBLIC
TPE and Discretionary Collateral by Market Segment - January 2025 Load and Generation entities accounted for the largest portion of discretionary collateral 9 PUBLIC
TPEA Coverage of Settlements December 2023 - December 2024 Invoice Exposure Historical Future Existing Invoice Exposure RTLCNS + UDAA M1 Days (including current day) Forward Charge Invoice Amounts New Invoice Exposure 7 Days Back Net Invoice Amounts (Charges & Credits) M1 Days (including current day) Forward Net Invoice Amounts (Charges & Credits); Excluding: 1) Securitization Invoices; 2) CRR Auction Invoices; and 3) Subchapter N Funds Distribution Invoice TPEA closely approximates actual/invoice exposure 1 0 PUBLIC
TPEA Coverage of Settlements December 2023 - December 2024 Invoice Exposure Historical Future Existing Invoice Exposure RTLCNS + UDAA M1 Days (including current day) Forward Charge Invoice Amounts New Invoice Exposure 7 Days Back Net Invoice Amounts (Charges & Credits) M1 Days (including current day) Forward Net Invoice Amounts (Charges & Credits); Excluding: 1) Securitization Invoices; 2) CRR Auction Invoices; 3) Subchapter N Funds Distribution Invoice *TPEA exceeds invoice exposure 1 1 PUBLIC
TPEA Coverage of Settlements December 2023 - December 2024 Invoice Exposure Historical Future Existing Invoice Exposure RTLCNS + UDAA M1 Days (including current day) Forward Charge Invoice Amounts New Invoice Exposure 7 Days Back Net Invoice Amounts (Charges & Credits) M1 Days (including current day) Forward Net Invoice Amounts (Charges & Credits); Excluding: 1) Securitization Invoices; 2) CRR Auction Invoices; 3) Subchapter N Funds Distribution Invoice Invoice exposure generally exceeds TPEA 1 2 PUBLIC
TPEA Coverage of Settlements December 2023 - December 2024 Invoice Exposure Historical Future Existing Invoice Exposure RTLCNS + UDAA M1 Days (including current day) Forward Charge Invoice Amounts New Invoice Exposure 7 Days Back Net Invoice Amounts (Charges & Credits) M1 Days (including current day) Forward Net Invoice Amounts (Charges & Credits); Excluding: 1) Securitization Invoices; 2) CRR Auction Invoices; 3) Subchapter N Funds Distribution Invoice * TPEA generally exceeds Invoice exposure 1 3 PUBLIC
TPEA Coverage of Settlements December 2023 - December 2024 Invoice Exposure Historical Future Existing Invoice Exposure RTLCNS + UDAA M1 Days (including current day) Forward Charge Invoice Amounts New Invoice Exposure 7 Days Back Net Invoice Amounts (Charges & Credits) M1 Days (including current day) Forward Net Invoice Amounts (Charges & Credits); Excluding: 1) Securitization Invoices; 2) CRR Auction Invoices; 3) Subchapter N Funds Distribution Invoice *TPEA generally exceeds invoice exposure 14 PUBLIC
TPEA Coverage of Settlements December 2023 - December 2024 Invoice Exposure Historical Future Existing Invoice Exposure RTLCNS + UDAA M1 Days (including current day) Forward Charge Invoice Amounts New Invoice Exposure 7 Days Back Net Invoice Amounts (Charges & Credits) M1 Days (including current day) Forward Net Invoice Amounts (Charges & Credits); Excluding: 1) Securitization Invoices; 2) CRR Auction Invoices; 3) Subchapter N Funds Distribution Invoice *TPES exceeds actual/invoice exposure 1 5 PUBLIC
Questions 1 6 PUBLIC
