Vermont Labor Market Insights and Trends
Explore the latest insights and trends in the Vermont labor market, including population growth, unemployment rates, and the annual average labor force data from 2005 to 2021. Discover opportunities and concerns shaping the state's economic landscape.
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Presentation Transcript
The Vermont Labor Market Opportunities and Concerns
The Economic & Labor Market Information Division online @ VTLMI.info Housed in the Vermont Department of Labor State partner to the Federal Government 100% federally funded Thank you to the USDOL Employment & Training Administration! Purpose: to produce, explain and disseminate economic data for the benefit of the State of Vermont, educational institutes, employers, students, job-seekers, researchers, and the general public.
MOMENT OF APPRECIATION MOMENT OF APPRECIATION Thank you all for the work you do!!
Important note: Data: From the Vermont Dept of Labor, The Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Census Bureau Anything beyond the data: My views, not those of the VDoL or the executive branch. Please interrupt to ask questions or share comments. This is meant to be a discussion. Accurate! Consistent in methods and production!
2020 CENSUS PARTIAL RESULTS Vermont s Population: We thought for a decade ~626k Turns out we were climbing to +643k!!!
2020 CENSUS PARTIAL RESULTS 3 COUNTIES SHOWED POPULATION DECLINES
Vermont Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)
Vermont Labor Force Annual Average, 2005 - 2021 365,000 359,692 360,000 356,456 355,394 353,986 353,947 355,000 348,697 350,000 345,851 345,000 341,137 340,000 335,000 330,000 328,216 325,000 320,000 315,000 310,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 .
County % Change - 21 Peak Year County Labor Force Data: Percent Change since Peak Addison -9.0% 2009 Bennington -17.8% 2006 Caledonia -16.8% 2006 Chittenden -7.3% 2019 Based on each county s respective peak labor force numbers, all counties have seen a decline in labor force. Essex -21.0% 2009 Franklin -6.2% 2019 Grand Isle -8.5% 2006 Franklin County has lost the least, 6.2% of its peak labor force. It is followed by northwest neighbors Chittenden (-7.3%) and Grand Isle (-8.5%) Lamoille -14.6% 2009 Orange -9.0% 2010 Orleans -12.1% 2009 Rutland -19.4% 2006 Washington -9.4% 2019 Eight counties have seen a 10%+ decline in labor force. Windham -19.8% 2010 Windsor -15.6% 2009 Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics Vermont Department of Labor
Labor Demand > Labor Supply It s a seller s market February 2020 July 2022 Unemployed: 9,000 Openings: 16,000 Quits: 7,000 Unemployed: 7,000 Openings: 23,000 Quits: 11,000 1 unemployed person for every 1.8 job openings 1 unemployed person for every 3.3 job openings This was considered a very tight labor market
Average Hourly Wages All workers All workers and non non- -supervisory supervisory 33.00 31.95 31.00 29.00 27.00 27.33 25.00 23.00 21.00 19.00 17.00 15.00 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022
Half the Story Point 1 - Wages up locally due to decrease in labor supply And now, on to the second half
Business Formation Rates Over the Year Change 2016 >> 2017 >> 2018 >> 2019 >> 2020 >> 1.7% or 420 new establishments 1.9% or 480 new establishments 0.5% or 136 new establishments 1.2% or 309 new establishments 1.6% or 409 new establishments
Business Formation Rates Over the Year Change 2021 >> 5.9% or 1,545 new establishments 1,041 in Prof & Biz Services - 807 in Prof & Tech Services - 202 in Admin Services 129 in Information 102 in Financial Activities
Business Formation Rates Over the Year Change Approx. 1,300 new establishments added 2,500 jobs NET but There were approx. 8k businesses already in these three areas; the +2.5k jobs includes new and previously existing businesses Point 2 - Expanded regional competition for labor due to technology
*Version 4* A Continued Partnership with the McClure Foundation Highlighting E&LMI Data (V5 in the works!) Found online: VTLMI.info in the upper right OR McClureVT.org
Thank you! (visit VTLMI.info) Mathew Barewicz Economic and Labor Market Information Division Vermont Department of Labor mathew.barewicz@Vermont.gov www.VTLMI.info
