Was Professor Plum in the Hall with the Wrench?
In October 2024, the Workforce Information Forum presented projections on estimated employment levels and demand for industries and occupations in Pennsylvania. The data, developed with collaboration from the US Department of Labor, helps predict future job demands and shape training programs. Detailed information is available for various sectors, including Health Care & Social Assistance. The occupational outlook for Pennsylvania from 2022 to 2032 highlights employment trends and projected demand for healthcare support occupations such as Nursing, Psychiatric, & Home Health Aides.
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Was it Professor Plum in the Hall with the Wrench? Workforce Information Forum October 2024
Overview Projections Estimated employment levels and 10-year demand for specific industries and occupations. Developed in collaboration with the US DOL s Employment & Training Administration (ETA). Based largely on information from two Bureau of Labor & Statistics (BLS) programs Industry: Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW) Occupational: Occupational Employment & Wage Statistics (OEWS) Full- and part-time workers, includes agriculture, private household, and self-employed. Completed every 2 years for the State, MSAs and WDAs. Only statewide data currently. Sub-state areas (MSA and WDAs) targeted for release in December. Used to predict where demand for workers will be in the future, to develop/modify training programs to meet that demand, and to help educate job seekers of both today and tomorrow as to where those opportunities will be available. Publications(PDF and Excel) available: https://www.pa.gov/en/agencies/dli/resources/statistic- materials/products/projections-occupational-industries.html
Industry Outlook Pennsylvania Industry Employment 2022-2032 Long-Term Projections Avg Annual Employment* Change NAICS Industry Title 2022 2032 Level Percent Change TOTAL ALL INDUSTRIES Health Care & Social Assistance Ambulatory Health Care Services Offices of Physicians Offices of Dentists Offices of Other Health Practitioners Outpatient Care Centers Medical & Diagnostic Laboratories Home Health Care Services Other Ambulatory Health Care Services 6,311,420 6,468,730 157,310 1,027,150 1,101,800 350,360 388,040 123,860 132,730 34,540 35,400 44,670 52,070 44,920 51,230 10,470 10,440 69,930 82,450 21,980 23,740 2.5% 15,731 7.3% 10.8% 7.2% 2.5% 16.6% 14.0% -0.3% 17.9% 8.0% 74,650 37,680 8,870 860 7,400 6,310 7,465 3,768 887 62 621 6211 6212 6213 6214 6215 6216 6219 86 740 631 -3 -30 12,520 1,760 1,252 176 Total, All Industries Sector (Two-Digit) Subsector (Three-Digit) Industry Group (Four-Digit)
Occupational Outlook Pennsylvania Occupational Employment 2022-2032 Long-Term Projections Employment Outlook Annual Demand SOC Code Educ. Level Occupational Title Estimated Projected 2020 6,311,420 340,210 269,320 Percent Change Due to Growth1/ Due to Exits2/ Due to Transfers3/Demand4/ Total 2030 6,468,730 379,850 301,390 00-0000 Total, All Occupations 31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations 31-1100 Nursing, Psychiatric, & Home Health Aides N/A N/A N/A 2.5% 11.7% 11.9% 15,731 3.964 3,207 313,774 25,324 21,422 388,733 26,395 20,047 13,528 718,238 55,683 44,676 31-1120 Home Health & Personal Care Aides ST OJT 188,340 217,220 15.3% 2,888 16,223 32,639 6,042 31-1131 Nursing Assistants PS 75,670 78,720 4.0% 305 4,885 11,232 31-1132 Orderlies ST OJT 3,750 3,870 3.2% 12 222 337 571 31-1133 Psychiatric Aides ST OJT Total, All Occupations Major Group Minor Group Broad Group Detailed Occupation 1,560 1,580 1.3% 2 92 139 233
Total Demand by Example Home Health Aides Demand due to growth: John receives his high school diploma and enters the workforce by taking a full-time job as a home attendant at a newly constructed home health agency nearby while he is taking night classes at a community college. Employment Outlook Annual Demand SOC Code Educ. Level Occupational Title Estimated Projected 2022 188,340 Percent Change 15.3% Due to Growth Due to Exits Due to Transfers Total Demand 2032 217,220 31-1120 Home Health & Personal Care Aides ST OJT 2,888 16,223 13,528 32,639 Employment 2022 Change Avg Annual Change NAICS` Industry Title 2032 Level Percent 6216 6241 Home Health Care Services Individual & Family Services 69,930 176,720 82,450 201,460 12,520 24,740 17.9% 14.0% 1,252 2,474 Total Demand = Employment Growth + Separations (Exits + Transfers)
Total Demand by Example Home Health Aides Demand due to exits: Megan is expecting her first born in two weeks and decides she wants to quit her job as a hospice aide and leave the labor force and become a full-time stay-at-home mom. Employment Outlook Annual Demand SOC Code Educ. Level Occupational Title Estimated Projected 2022 188,340 Percent Change 15.3% Due to Growth Due to Exits Due to Transfers Total Demand 2032 217,220 31-1120 Home Health & Personal Care Aides ST OJT 2,888 16,223 13,528 32,639 Employment 2022 Change Avg Annual Change NAICS` Industry Title 2032 Level Percent 6216 6241 Home Health Care Services Individual & Family Services 69,930 176,720 82,450 201,460 12,520 24,740 17.9% 14.0% 1,252 2,474 Total Demand = Employment Growth + Separations (Exits + Transfers)
Total Demand by Example Home Health Aides Demand due to transfers: Sally leaves her job as a certified nurses aide once she finishes her bachelor s degree in business management and begins working as a business analyst for an insurance company. Employment Outlook Annual Demand SOC Code Educ. Level Occupational Title Estimated Projected 2022 188,340 Percent Change 15.3% Due to Growth Due to Exits Due to Transfers Total Demand 2032 217,220 31-1120 Home Health & Personal Care Aides ST OJT 2,888 16,223 13,528 32,639 Employment 2022 Change Avg Annual Change NAICS` Industry Title 2032 Level Percent 6216 6241 Home Health Care Services Individual & Family Services 69,930 176,720 82,450 201,460 12,520 24,740 17.9% 14.0% 1,252 2,474 Total Demand = Employment Growth + Separations (Exits + Transfers)
Clue #1 Mr. Boddy was receiving home health care services at the time of his murder. The family decided to focus only on occupations that are found in the Home Health Services (NAICS 6216) industry. Eliminate the room/weapon below that is not found in the Home Health Services industry. Staffing Pattern Home Health Care Services (NAICS 6216) Room/Weapon Wrench Kitchen Candlestick Conservatory Library Rope Share of Industry 48.8% 1.5% 0.0% 4.6% 10.0% 0.9%
Clue #2 The family remembered that they had trouble keeping one occupation in particular that dealt with Mr. Boddy s care. Keep only the room/weapon that had highest demand due to separations. Annual Demand Due to Growth Due to Exits Due to Transfers Total Demand Room/Weapon Library Wrench Rope Kitchen Dagger Study 305 2,888 205 185 215 4,885 16,223 181 304 1,438 223 6,042 13,528 226 205 1,246 191 11,232 32,639 612 694 2,899 498 84
Population by Age vs. Labor Force Participation Pennsylvania Population by Age vs Labor Force Participation Rate 3,000,000 62.5 62.3 60.6 60.8 2,500,000 62.0 2,000,000 61.5 1,500,000 61.0 1,000,000 60.5 500,000 0 60.0 2012 2022 2032 15 thru 24 25 thru 34 35 thru 44 Age 45 thru 54 Age 55 thru 64 Age 65 and Older Labor Force Participation Rate
2022-2032 Industry Projections Employment Change 2022-32 Employment 2022 Projected 2032 Volume Percent US Percent Change: 2.8% Industry Total Jobs 6,311,420 6,468,730 157,310 2.5% Self-Employed 318,120 320,030 1,910 0.6% Goods-Producing Industries Agriculture, Mining & Logging Construction Manufacturing 909,460 86,580 259,240 563,640 912,880 87,460 264,280 561,150 3,420 880 5,040 -2,490 0.4% 1.0% 1.9% -0.4% Service-Providing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services, Except Public Admin. Federal, State & Local Government 5,083,840 1,143,620 93,100 334,160 843,210 1,500,950 537,090 276,430 355,290 5,235,830 1,147,820 98,050 341,550 882,120 1,577,240 549,680 282,090 357,300 151,990 4,200 4,950 7,390 38,910 76,290 12,590 5,660 2,010 3.0% 0.4% 5.3% 2.2% 4.6% 5.1% 2.3% 2.0% 0.6%
2022-2032 Occupational Projections Empl. Change (2022-32) Empl. (2022) Proj. Empl. (2032) Annual Demand US Percent Change: 2.8% Occupational Title Volume Percent Total, All Occupations 6,311,420 6,468,730 157,310 2.5% 718,238 Management, Business & Finance 768,960 807,400 38,440 5.0% 64,540 Computer, Engineering & Science 343,910 374,530 30,620 8.9% 26,378 Education, Legal, Social Service, Arts & Media 604,210 625,640 21,430 3.5% 54,266 Healthcare Practitioners, Technicians & Support 755,350 823,490 68,140 9.0% 82,395 Protective, Food, Building & Personal Service 984,720 1,010,240 25,520 2.6% 169,278 Sales & Related 534,980 525,920 -9,060 -1.7% 68,818 Office & Administrative Support 815,400 762,620 -52,780 -6.5% 84,408 Farming, Fishing & Forestry 47,090 46,830 -260 -0.6% 6,841 Construction & Extraction 251,960 259,950 7,990 3.2% 22,477 Installation, Maintenance & Repair 246,050 256,200 10,150 4.1% 22,684 Production 373,880 364,650 -9,230 -2.5% 38,532 Transportation & Material Moving 584,940 611,250 26,310 4.5% 77,625
Clue #3 The family recalled a conversation they had with the employer concerning the issues keeping the one occupation staffed. They were reassured by the employer that the occupation had a high rate of change in the next 10 years and not to worry. They decided to focus only on occupations with high percent change. Only keep rooms/weapons that have a percent change more than three times that of the state (2.5%). Employment Outlook Estimated 2022 Projected 2032 Percent Change Room/Weapon Lead Pipe Dagger Revolver Hall Ballroom Study 7,240 7,220 34,410 188,340 75,670 12,280 9,290 8,060 36,560 217,220 78,720 14,130 28.3% 11.6% 6.2% 15.3% 4.0% 15.1%
Educational Requirements for Jobs by 2032 Career Options: TODAY Slightly more than half of all jobs can be entered directly after high school graduation (or GED completion) and require no more than one year of on-the-job training. Projected to grow at a much slower rate (0.6%) than the state overall (2.5%). Segment contribution to total employment has been steadily declining. 50.2% Today TOMORROW More than one out of every five jobs will require some extended period of formal training, an apprenticeship, industry-recognized certification, or completion of an Associate degree for entry. Jobs requiring an Associate degree are projected to grow at a faster rate (5.0%) than the state. Tomorrow 21.5% FUTURE Roughly one out of every four jobs in the state require a bachelor s degree or higher. Highest growth rates expected for those with advanced degrees (8.2%). Future 28.3% Additional education may be required to retain employment and/or to qualify for promotional opportunities.
Occupational Growth by Educational Attainment Employment Growth by Education and Training Level: PA vs. US 10.0% 8.8% 9.0% 8.2% 8.0% PA (Overall Growth Rate = 2.5%) 6.7% 7.0% US (Overall Growth Rate = 2.8%) 5.9% 5.7% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.4% 2.8% 3.0% 2.0% 1.7% 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% On-the-job training Long-term training PS training or experience Associate degree Bachelor's degree Advanced degree
Fastest Growing Occupations 2022-2032 By Volume Growth: Home Health & Personal Care Aides Cooks, Restaurant Software Developers Stockers & Order Fillers Registered Nurses Laborers & Material Movers General & Operations Managers Medical & Health Services Managers Financial Managers Medical Assistants By Percent Growth: Nurse Practitioners Data Scientists Statisticians Physician Assistants Information Security Analysts Medical & Health Services Managers Physical Therapist Assistants Occupational Therapy Assistants Operations Research Analysts Taxi Drivers Annual Demand: Fast Food & Counter Workers Home Health & Personal Care Aides Cashiers Retail Salespersons Laborers & Material Movers Stockers & Order Fillers Office Clerks, General Waiters & Waitresses Customer Service Representatives Janitors & Cleaners (Minimum employment level of 1,000) Green = Today Red = Tomorrow Blue = Future
Online Job Postings Data Source: The Conference Board - LightCast - Help Wanted OnLineTM Online job postings allow us to measure changes over time on the volume of advertised online job vacancies Information is collected monthly by industry and occupation Often added to projections data Can be used to answer some of our most frequently asked questions: What is the current demand of the labor market? What opportunities exist today?
Clue #4 At one point, the family had even considered using a different company to hire staff for Mr. Boddy s in-home care. However, there were so many companies posting for the occupation online that they felt overwhelmed and decided to give the current company one more chance. Keep the room/weapon with the highest online job postings for the month. Online Job Postings Room/Weapon August 2024 Conservatory Dining Room Billiard Room Lounge Lead Pipe Hall 383 2,692 1,673 464 1,073 4,742
Clue #5 A family member mentioned a recent conversation with Mr. Boddy that the employee was just out of high school and considering starting a career in the health field. Eliminate any suspects that are not entry level occupations job of today . These types of jobs can be entered directly after high school graduation (or GED completion) and require no more than one year of on-the-job training. Employment Outlook Annual Demand % Home Healthcare Services SOC Code Educ. Level Job Postings August '24 Suspects Occupational Title Estimated 2022 Projected 2032 Percent Change Due to Growth Due to Exits Due to Transfers Total Demand Miss Scarlet 29-1071 Physician Assistants MD 7,240 9,290 28.3% 205 181 226 612 464 0.0 Colonel Mustard 29-1122 Occupational Therapists MD 7,220 8,060 11.6% 84 223 191 498 383 0.9 Mrs. Peacock 29-1123 Physical Therapists DOCT 12,280 14,130 15.1% 185 304 205 694 1,073 1.5 Mrs. White 29-2061 Licensed Practical & Vocational Nurses PS 34,410 36,560 6.2% 215 1,438 1,246 2,899 2,692 10.0 Professor Plum 31-1120 Home Health & Personal Care Aides ST OJT 188,340 217,220 15.3% 2,888 16,223 13,528 32,639 4,742 48.8 Mr. Green 31-1131 Nursing Assistants PS 75,670 78,720 4.0% 305 4,885 6,042 11,232 1,673 4.6
