Water Planning Projections: TWDB's Innovative Approach
Explore how the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) utilizes Texas Demographic Center (TDC) projections in water planning, including basic parameters, projection processes, application benefits, and challenges faced. Gain insights into state and regional water plans, demographic details, and management strategies for sustainable water resource planning in Texas.
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Presentation Transcript
Application of TDCs Projections in Water Planning Presented to Texas Demographic Center Annual Conference June 6, 2019 Yun Cho Texas Water Development Board (TWDB)
Basic Planning Parameters Planning for drought of records water needs 50-year planning horizon (2020-2070) 5-year planning cycle 16 Regional plans & State Water Plan
Water Planning - Projections Process State Water Plan Regional Water Plans Projections Developing Draft Projection 254 Counties (TDC) >1,300 Utilities (TWDB) Review & request changes TWDB staff review with 3 other agencies Revision Process 3
Application of TDCs Projections 1. Serves as draft state and county projections Cohort-Component Method 0.5 Scenario as default 2. Basis of sub-county projections 1,300 water utilities Ratio Trend Analysis: Share of pop / Share of growth 4
Application of TDCs Projections 3. Provides additional information during revision process Provides alternative scenarios (0, 0.5, 1.0) Serves as benchmark Provides demographic details 5
Benefits Provides the best available projections Upholds credibility and consistency in the TWDB s projections Saves agency resources and staff time Provides valuable demographic details 6
Challenges in using TDC data No set data release schedule Difficult to plan Any delays can add significant pressure on the regional water planning process Suggestion: data release schedule One Scenario-based projections No one scenario fits all Long term planning Suggestion: 0.5 & 1.0 7
TDC Projections State Water Plan Regional Water Plans Water Planning Process Projections Water Draft Plan & Public Comments Water Water Needs Analysis Economic Impact Analysis Demand and Supply Analysis Management Strategies
Questions? Yun Cho Economic and Demographic Analysis yun.cho@twdb.texas.gov 512-463-3025
Other Suggestions: Keep historical data Estimates & projection data sets & methodology documents for the previous years Share source data Vital data, building permit & housing data, etc. 10
