Weekly System Status 2022 Week 43 Update
This document provides a general picture of the National Electricity Supply System in the medium term. It includes data on historic daily peak system capacity, dispatchable generation, residual demand, operating reserve margin, and more. The report is updated weekly and published on the Eskom website.
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Weekly System Status 2022 week 43 (24/10/2022 30/10/2022) System Operator
Introduction and Disclaimer Introduction This document is intended to provide a general picture of the Adequacy of the National Electricity Supply System in the medium term. The Report will be updated weekly, on Tuesdays and circulated Wednesdays, thereafter, published on the Eskom website, updated on Wednesdays. The values contained in this report are unverified and not official yet and can change at any time. Disclaimer The Data published here is for information purposes only. The content is subject to verification and validation. Eskom shall not be held responsible for any errors or it being misleading or incomplete and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, damages or expenses, howsoever, incurred or suffered, resulting or arising, from the use of this Data or any reliance placed on it.
Historic Daily Peak System Capacity/Demand Available Dispatchable Generation (MW) 28,200 27,498 27,891 29,566 29,635 30,211 30,051 Actual Residual Demand (MW) Incl IOS 28,471 28,077 28,244 27,603 26,728 24,870 23,996 Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) -1.0% -2.1% -1.2% 7.1% 10.9% 21.5% 25.2% Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) -1.0% -2.1% -1.2% 7.1% 10.9% 21.5% 25.2% Non-commercial Generation (MW) Residual Load Forecast (MW) Forecast vs. Actual (Residual Demand) Date Mon 24/Oct/2022 Tue 25/Oct/2022 Wed 26/Oct/2022 Thu 27/Oct/2022 Fri 28/Oct/2022 Sat 29/Oct/2022 Sun 30/Oct/2022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28,894 28,627 28,600 28,491 27,131 25,897 25,677 1.5% 2.0% 1.3% 3.2% 1.5% 4.1% 7.0% RSA Total Available Generation Incl Renewables (MW) Actual RSA Contracted Demand (MW) Incl IOS Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) Forecast vs. Actual (RSA Contracted Demand) Non-commercial Generation (MW) Contracted Load Forecast (MW) 30,776 31,049 30,745 30,990 29,608 28,106 28,611 Date Mon 24/Oct/2022 Tue 25/Oct/2022 Wed 26/Oct/2022 Thu 27/Oct/2022 Fri 28/Oct/2022 Sat 29/Oct/2022 Sun 30/Oct/2022 30,095 30,068 30,002 32,529 32,061 32,285 33,172 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30,366 30,647 30,339 30,566 29,154 26,944 27,117 -0.9% -1.9% -1.1% 6.4% 10.0% 19.8% 22.3% -0.9% -1.9% -1.1% 6.4% 10.0% 19.8% 22.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 4.3% 5.5% Available Dispatchable Generation means all generation resources that can be dispatched by Eskom and includes capacity available from all emergency generation resources. RSA Contracted Load Forecast is the total official day-ahead hourly forecast. Residual Load Forecast excludes the expected generation from renewables. Actual Residual Demand is the aggregated metered hourly sent-out generation and imports from dispatchable resources, and includes demand reductions. The Actual RSA Contracted Demand includes renewable generation. Net Maximum Dispatchable Capacity (including imports and emergency generation resources) = 49 191 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units). These figures do not include any demand side products. The peak hours for the residual demand can differ from that of the RSA contracted demand, depending on renewable generation.
Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Week 43 : Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics Annual Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics Energy Sent Out Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 3,654 -5.59 -2.66 GWh % % Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 01 Jan to 30 Oct Energy 188,009 187,340 183,782 172,284 176,192 171,536 Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) 225,203 224,202 219,563 206,725 210,022 Unit GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh Note: 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. (2022 week 1 ~ 2021 week 1) 2022 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2021 vs 2022): Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out. 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. 2021 Dispatchable Generation Energy 2022 Residual Energy Forecast 2022 Dispatchable Generation Energy 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 Energy Sent Out GWh 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week
Week-on-Week Residual Energy Demand Week 43 : Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Energy Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 3,894 -3.61 -0.50 GWh % % Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 01 Jan to 30 Oct Energy 188,038 187,502 184,612 173,647 177,670 176,789 Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) 225,248 224,594 220,924 208,151 211,958 Unit GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh Note: 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. (2022 week 1 ~ 2021 week 1) 2022 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2021 vs 2022): Residual Energy Demand. 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. 2021 Residual Energy (Incl IOS) 2022 Residual Energy Forecast 2022 Residual Energy (Incl IOS) 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 Energy Demand GWh 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week 5
Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Energy Demand Week 43 : RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Energy Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 4,277 -1.78 -0.11 GWh % % Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 01 Jan to 30 Oct Energy 196,230 196,260 193,977 183,420 189,885 189,702 Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) 235,426 235,482 232,511 220,630 227,166 Unit GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh Note: 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. (2022 week 1 ~ 2021 week 1) 2022 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2021 vs 2022): RSA Contracted Energy Demand. 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. 2021 RSA Contracted Energy (Incl IOS) 2022 RSA Contracted Energy Forecast 2022 RSA Contracted Energy (Incl IOS) 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 Energy Demand GWh 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week
Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Week 43 : Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics Annual Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics Peak Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 24,870 -11.05 -1.66 MW % % Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Peak Date Tue 30-May-2017 Mon 16-Jul-2018 Thu 30-May-2019 Wed 17-Jun-2020 Thu 15-Jul-2021 Thu 02-Jun-2022 Annual Peak 35,457 34,256 33,066 32,384 32,292 31,756 Unit MW MW MW MW MW MW Note: 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. (2022 week 1 ~ 2021 week 1) 2022 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2021 vs 2022): Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand. 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. 2021 Dispatchable Generation Peak 2022 Residual Peak Forecast 2022 Dispatchable Generation Peak 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 30,000 Peak Demand MW 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week 7
Week-on-Week Residual Peak Demand Week 43 : Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Peak Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 28,471 -2.66 -2.62 MW % % Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Peak Date Tue 30-May-2017 Tue 29-May-2018 Thu 30-May-2019 Wed 15-Jul-2020 Tue 08-Jun-2021 Thu 23-Jun-2022 Annual Peak 35,517 34,907 33,746 32,756 34,029 33,136 Unit MW MW MW MW MW MW Note: 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. (2022 week 1 ~ 2021 week 1) 2022 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2021 vs 2022): Residual Peak Demand. 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. 2021 Residual Peak (Incl IOS) 2022 Residual Peak Forecast 2022 Residual Peak (Incl IOS) 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 Peak Demand MW 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week
Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Peak Demand Week 43 : RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Peak Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 30,647 -1.08 -0.97 MW % % Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Peak Date Tue 30-May-2017 Tue 29-May-2018 Thu 30-May-2019 Tue 01-Sep-2020 Thu 22-Jul-2021 Thu 23-Jun-2022 Annual Peak 35,769 35,345 34,510 34,155 35,005 34,666 Unit MW MW MW MW MW MW Note: 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. (2022 week 1 ~ 2021 week 1) 2022 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2021 vs 2022): RSA Contracted Peak Demand. 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. 2021 RSA Contracted Peak (Incl IOS) 2022 RSA Contracted Peak Forecast 2022 RSA Contracted Peak (Incl IOS) 36,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 Peak Demand MW 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week
Weekly Generation Availability Week Annual (Jan - Dec) 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 2022 2021 Energy Availability Factor (Eskom EAF) 63.81 61.59 63.69 60.53 61.10 59.47 56.28 52.71 53.16 55.49 57.27 58.63 55.83 56.95 58.97 61.79 5.06 7.08 9.01 9.61 10.73 10.59 11.06 13.56 10.44 11.43 13.31 11.11 11.55 12.00 Planned Outage Factor 10.23 10.81 29.34 30.58 26.37 29.22 27.70 29.39 31.94 33.12 35.36 32.05 28.20 28.96 31.43 29.41 Unplanned Outage Factor 29.32 24.53 1.79 0.75 0.93 0.64 0.47 0.55 0.72 0.61 1.04 1.03 1.22 1.30 1.19 1.64 Other Outage Factor 1.48 2.87 EAF: Ratio of the available energy generation over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. Outage Factors: Ratio of the energy losses over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. YTD: Year-to-Date (01 January of current year to current week)
52 Week Outlook MW RSA MW MW MW MW MW MW MW The maintenance plan included in these assumptions includes a base scenario of outages (planned risk level). As there is opportunity for further outages, these will be included. This likely risk scenario includes an additional 1500 MW of outages on the base plan. The expected import at Apollo is included. Avon and Dedisa is also included. The forecast used is the latest operational weekly forecast, which excludes the expected renewable generation. Operating Reserve Generation: 2 200 MW Unplanned Outage Assumption (UA): 13 000 MW Reserves: OR + UA = 15 200 MW Eskom Installed Capacity: 48 186 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units) Installed Dispatchable Capacity: 49 191 MW (Incl. Avon and Dedisa) Komati Power Station units and Medupi Unit 4 capacity of 720MW has been removed from the capacity planning models. Description Adequate Generation to meet Demand and Reserves. < 1 000MW Possibly short to meet Reserves 1 001MW 2 000MW Definitively short to meet Reserves and possibly Demand > 2 001MW Short to meet Demand and Reserves Week Start Week Residual Forecast Available Dispatchable Capacity 44428 43402 43382 41968 41897 40970 41414 40489 39232 41077 41731 42209 42629 42647 42490 42290 42532 43177 43661 43234 43234 43619 44539 45232 45817 46412 46987 47627 47817 48017 47960 47612 47760 47760 48217 47090 47090 47090 47147 47204 46707 45936 45788 45580 45791 46526 44806 44475 44190 43705 43430 42650 43278 42947 Available Capacity (Less OR and UA) 29228 28202 28182 26768 26697 25770 26214 25289 24032 25877 26531 27009 27429 27447 27290 27090 27332 27977 28461 28034 28034 28419 29339 30032 30617 31212 31787 32427 32617 32817 32760 32412 32560 32560 33017 31890 31890 31890 31947 32004 31507 30736 30588 30380 30591 31326 29606 29275 28990 28505 28230 27450 28078 27747 Planned Maintenance Unplanned Outage Assumption (UA) 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 Planned Risk Level (-15200 MW) 873 168 507 -769 -442 -1545 -993 -1029 185 5 -460 -882 -763 -902 -1918 -1955 -1787 -1176 -1124 -1203 -1332 -787 -1234 -814 -721 -809 -632 -922 -905 -1032 -1907 -1361 -1214 -1045 -1093 -1772 -1746 -1861 -1850 -981 -953 -1378 -1449 -1581 -1200 -114 -959 -1286 -1471 -1366 -1132 -1612 -1047 -1072 Likely Risk Senario (-16700 MW) -627 -1332 -993 -2269 -1942 -3045 -2493 -2529 -1315 -1495 -1960 -2382 -2263 -2402 -3418 -3455 -3287 -2676 -2624 -2703 -2832 -2287 -2734 -2314 -2221 -2309 -2132 -2422 -2405 -2532 -3407 -2861 -2714 -2545 -2593 -3272 -3246 -3361 -3350 -2481 -2453 -2878 -2949 -3081 -2700 -1614 -2459 -2786 -2971 -2866 -2632 -3112 -2547 -2572 Contracted Forecast 30774 30154 29858 29720 29322 29502 29393 28505 26034 27906 29025 29926 30227 30383 30997 30835 30909 30721 31153 30805 31014 30853 32219 32493 32984 33668 33601 34531 34704 35031 35849 35053 35055 34886 35391 35153 35127 35242 35288 34476 34154 33807 33730 33641 33478 33126 32252 32248 32405 31805 31273 30926 31035 31002 28355 28035 27675 27537 27139 27315 27207 26318 23847 25872 26991 27891 28192 28349 29208 29045 29119 29153 29585 29237 29366 29206 30573 30846 31338 32021 32419 33349 33522 33849 34667 33773 33774 33605 34110 33662 33636 33751 33797 32985 32460 32114 32037 31961 31791 31440 30565 30561 30461 29871 29362 29062 29125 28819 4763 5789 5809 7223 7294 8221 7777 8702 9959 8114 7460 6982 6562 6544 6701 6901 6659 6014 5530 5957 5957 5572 4652 3959 3374 2779 2204 1564 1374 1174 1231 1579 1431 1431 974 2101 2101 2101 2044 1987 2484 3255 3403 3611 3400 2665 4385 4716 5001 5486 5761 6541 5913 6244 31-Oct-22 07-Nov-22 14-Nov-22 21-Nov-22 28-Nov-22 05-Dec-22 12-Dec-22 19-Dec-22 26-Dec-22 02-Jan-23 09-Jan-23 16-Jan-23 23-Jan-23 30-Jan-23 06-Feb-23 13-Feb-23 20-Feb-23 27-Feb-23 06-Mar-23 13-Mar-23 20-Mar-23 27-Mar-23 03-Apr-23 10-Apr-23 17-Apr-23 24-Apr-23 01-May-23 08-May-23 15-May-23 22-May-23 29-May-23 05-Jun-23 12-Jun-23 19-Jun-23 26-Jun-23 03-Jul-23 10-Jul-23 17-Jul-23 24-Jul-23 31-Jul-23 07-Aug-23 14-Aug-23 21-Aug-23 28-Aug-23 04-Sep-23 11-Sep-23 18-Sep-23 25-Sep-23 02-Oct-23 09-Oct-23 16-Oct-23 23-Oct-23 30-Oct-23 06-Nov-23 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 residual peak (OR) from Risk Level Green Yellow Orange Red
Current Installed Capacity (MW) CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs) 500.0 2,287.1 3,442.6 6,280.2 Renewable Energy Statistics Note: Times are expressed as hour beginning Maximum Difference between Consecutive Evening Peaks (MW) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification) Maximum Contribution (MW) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification) Cal Year Indicator Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date CSP 506.2 PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs) 2,921.0 01-Jul-2022 13:00 1,229.8 23-Dec-2016 13:00 1,708.2 25-Dec-2017 18:00 1,902.3 02-Oct-2018 16:00 1,872.0 14-Dec-2019 15:00 2,113.9 01-Dec-2020 19:00 2,639.3 15-Dec-2021 17:00 2,921.0 01-Jul-2022 13:00 Cal Year Indicator Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Total (Incl other REs) 1,744 07-Aug-2021 to 08-Aug-2021 828 30-Aug-2016 to 31-Aug-2016 1,038 19-Jun-2017 to 20-Jun-2017 1,336 01-Sep-2018 to 02-Sep-2018 1,464 05-Jul-2019 to 06-Jul-2019 1,488 31-Aug-2020 to 01-Sep-2020 1,744 07-Aug-2021 to 08-Aug-2021 1,523 07-Aug-2022 to 08-Aug-2022 2,099.5 5,126.1 All Time All Time 15-Mar-2022 15:00 200.9 11-Aug-2016 14:00 302.0 07-Nov-2017 10:00 399.7 04-Dec-2018 16:00 502.1 24-Sep-2019 11:00 504.5 25-Nov-2020 12:00 504.9 30-Nov-2021 16:00 506.2 15-Mar-2022 15:00 24-Oct-2021 12:00 1,350.5 16-Dec-2016 12:00 1,432.5 27-Oct-2017 12:00 1,392.1 03-Oct-2018 12:00 1,375.6 19-Jan-2019 12:00 1,929.2 25-Nov-2020 12:00 2,099.5 24-Oct-2021 12:00 2,025.1 05-Jan-2022 11:00 05-Sep-2022 12:00 2,576.3 23-Dec-2016 13:00 3,142.7 13-Dec-2017 13:00 3,298.9 28-Sep-2018 11:00 3,530.6 27-Oct-2019 13:00 4,050.0 24-Nov-2020 13:00 4,784.7 01-Nov-2021 13:00 5,126.1 05-Sep-2022 12:00 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 Maximum proportion that Renewables contributed towards actual hourly energy supplied (%) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification) Annual Energy Contribution (MWh) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification) Cal Year All Time Maximum Indicator Annual Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs) Cal Year Indicator Total (Incl other REs) 19.3% 05-Sep-2022 12:00 9.8% 23-Dec-2016 13:00 12.7% 25-Dec-2017 15:00 13.1% 01-Jan-2018 14:00 13.9% 14-Dec-2019 14:00 16.1% 27-Dec-2020 15:00 19.1% 01-Nov-2021 13:00 19.3% 05-Sep-2022 12:00 Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date 1,656,017 5,069,146 8,359,224 15,208,327 All Time 529,522 2,630,141 3,730,771 6,951,261 2016 2016 687,703 3,324,857 5,081,023 9,198,632 2017 2017 1,031,288 3,282,124 6,467,095 10,887,902 2018 2018 1,557,151 3,324,989 6,624,642 11,586,945 2019 2019 1,626,049 4,140,212 6,625,830 12,478,704 2020 2020 1,656,017 5,069,146 8,359,224 15,208,327 2021 2021 1,123,213 3,997,492 8,092,136 13,395,123 2022 2022
