Weekly System Status 2023: Adequacy of National Electricity Supply System
This document provides a general snapshot of the Adequacy of the National Electricity Supply System in the medium term. It includes information on daily peak system capacity, dispatchable generation, operating reserve margin, residual demand, and more. Weekly updates are scheduled, with data subject to change and the disclaimer emphasizing the data's informational purposes only.
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Weekly System Status 2023 week 01 (02/01/2023 08/01/2023) System Operator
Introduction and Disclaimer Introduction This document is intended to provide a general picture of the Adequacy of the National Electricity Supply System in the medium term. The Report will be updated weekly, on Tuesdays and circulated Wednesdays, thereafter, published on the Eskom website, updated on Wednesdays. The values contained in this report are unverified and not official yet and can change at any time. Disclaimer The Data published here is for information purposes only. The content is subject to verification and validation. Eskom shall not be held responsible for any errors or it being misleading or incomplete and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, damages or expenses, howsoever, incurred or suffered, resulting or arising, from the use of this Data or any reliance placed on it.
Historic Daily Peak System Capacity/Demand Available Dispatchable Generation (MW) 25,347 25,575 25,544 24,873 24,521 25,122 25,999 Actual Residual Demand (MW) Incl IOS 23,133 24,151 24,744 25,180 25,646 24,684 24,599 Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) 9.6% 5.9% 3.2% -1.2% -4.4% 1.8% 5.7% Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) 9.6% 5.9% 3.2% -1.2% -4.4% 1.8% 5.7% Non-commercial Generation (MW) Residual Load Forecast (MW) Forecast vs. Actual (Residual Demand) Date Mon 02/Jan/2023 Tue 03/Jan/2023 Wed 04/Jan/2023 Thu 05/Jan/2023 Fri 06/Jan/2023 Sat 07/Jan/2023 Sun 08/Jan/2023 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23,017 24,442 24,758 25,146 25,175 24,449 24,401 -0.5% 1.2% 0.1% -0.1% -1.8% -1.0% -0.8% RSA Total Available Generation Incl Renewables (MW) Actual RSA Contracted Demand (MW) Incl IOS Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) Forecast vs. Actual (RSA Contracted Demand) Non-commercial Generation (MW) Contracted Load Forecast (MW) 24,938 26,368 26,964 27,790 27,666 26,240 26,302 Date Mon 02/Jan/2023 Tue 03/Jan/2023 Wed 04/Jan/2023 Thu 05/Jan/2023 Fri 06/Jan/2023 Sat 07/Jan/2023 Sun 08/Jan/2023 27,320 27,588 28,148 27,888 26,826 26,849 27,743 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25,106 26,165 27,348 28,194 27,951 26,411 26,343 8.8% 5.4% 2.9% -1.1% -4.0% 1.7% 5.3% 8.8% 5.4% 2.9% -1.1% -4.0% 1.7% 5.3% -0.7% 0.8% -1.4% -1.4% -1.0% -0.6% -0.2% Available Dispatchable Generation means all generation resources that can be dispatched by Eskom and includes capacity available from all emergency generation resources. RSA Contracted Load Forecast is the total official day-ahead hourly forecast. Residual Load Forecast excludes the expected generation from renewables. Actual Residual Demand is the aggregated metered hourly sent-out generation and imports from dispatchable resources, and includes demand reductions. The Actual RSA Contracted Demand includes renewable generation. Net Maximum Dispatchable Capacity (including imports and emergency generation resources) = 49 191 MW. These figures do not include any demand side products. The peak hours for the residual demand can differ from that of the RSA contracted demand, depending on renewable generation.
Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Week 1 : Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics Annual Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics Energy Sent Out Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 3,251 -11.61 -11.61 GWh % % Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 01 Jan to 08 Jan Energy 4,423 4,349 4,342 4,239 4,100 4,080 Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) 224,202 219,563 206,725 210,022 202,847 Unit GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh Note: 2023 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2022. (2023 week 1 ~ 2022 week 1) 2023 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2022 vs 2023): Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out. 2023 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2022. 2022 Dispatchable Generation Energy 2023 Residual Energy Forecast 2023 Dispatchable Generation Energy 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 Energy Sent Out GWh 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week
Week-on-Week Residual Energy Demand Week 1 : Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Energy Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 3,604 -2.09 -2.09 GWh % % Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 01 Jan to 08 Jan Energy 4,424 4,353 4,385 4,251 4,103 4,080 Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) 224,594 220,924 208,151 211,958 211,134 Unit GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh Note: 2023 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2022. (2023 week 1 ~ 2022 week 1) 2023 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2022 vs 2023): Residual Energy Demand. 2023 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2022. 2022 Residual Energy (Incl IOS) 2023 Residual Energy Forecast 2023 Residual Energy (Incl IOS) 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 Energy Demand GWh 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week 5
Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Energy Demand Week 1 : RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Energy Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 4,006 -0.62 -0.62 GWh % % Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 01 Jan to 08 Jan Energy 4,713 4,658 4,640 4,551 4,510 4,525 Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) 235,482 232,511 220,630 227,166 227,337 Unit GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh Note: 2023 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2022. (2023 week 1 ~ 2022 week 1) 2023 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2022 vs 2023): RSA Contracted Energy Demand. 2023 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2022. 2022 RSA Contracted Energy (Incl IOS) 2023 RSA Contracted Energy Forecast 2023 RSA Contracted Energy (Incl IOS) 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 Energy Demand GWh 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week
Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Week 1 : Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics Annual Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics Peak Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 22,099 -12.61 -12.61 MW % % Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Peak Date Mon 16-Jul-2018 Thu 30-May-2019 Wed 17-Jun-2020 Thu 15-Jul-2021 Thu 02-Jun-2022 Tue 03-Jan-2023 Annual Peak 34,256 33,066 32,384 32,292 31,756 22,099 Unit MW MW MW MW MW MW Note: 2023 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2022. (2023 week 1 ~ 2022 week 1) 2023 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2022 vs 2023): Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand. 2023 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2022. 2022 Dispatchable Generation Peak 2023 Residual Peak Forecast 2023 Dispatchable Generation Peak 36,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 Peak Demand MW 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week 7
Week-on-Week Residual Peak Demand Week 1 : Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Peak Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 25,646 -0.04 -0.04 MW % % Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Peak Date Tue 29-May-2018 Thu 30-May-2019 Wed 15-Jul-2020 Tue 08-Jun-2021 Thu 23-Jun-2022 Fri 06-Jan-2023 Annual Peak 34,907 33,746 32,756 34,029 33,136 25,646 Unit MW MW MW MW MW MW Note: 2023 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2022. (2023 week 1 ~ 2022 week 1) 2023 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2022 vs 2023): Residual Peak Demand. 2023 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2022. 2022 Residual Peak (Incl IOS) 2023 Residual Peak Forecast 2023 Residual Peak (Incl IOS) 36,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 Peak Demand MW 31,000 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week
Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Peak Demand Week 1 : RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Peak Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 28,194 1.93 1.93 MW % % Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Peak Date Tue 29-May-2018 Thu 30-May-2019 Tue 01-Sep-2020 Thu 22-Jul-2021 Thu 23-Jun-2022 Thu 05-Jan-2023 Annual Peak 35,345 34,510 34,155 35,005 34,666 28,194 Unit MW MW MW MW MW MW Note: 2023 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2022. (2023 week 1 ~ 2022 week 1) 2023 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2022 vs 2023): RSA Contracted Peak Demand. 2023 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2022. 2022 RSA Contracted Peak (Incl IOS) 2023 RSA Contracted Peak Forecast 2023 RSA Contracted Peak (Incl IOS) 37,000 36,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 Peak Demand MW 31,000 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week
Weekly Generation Availability Week Annual (Jan - Dec) 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1 2023 2022 Energy Availability Factor (Eskom EAF) 56.91 58.34 55.31 56.62 59.00 55.23 56.43 56.51 54.37 51.16 50.48 49.93 48.61 49.50 50.42 58.02 13.33 11.11 11.58 12.05 9.62 11.35 9.89 12.19 9.13 11.53 15.39 16.67 17.09 13.94 Planned Outage Factor 13.84 10.62 28.54 29.25 31.91 29.84 29.29 31.38 31.60 29.07 34.64 35.62 32.90 32.16 33.01 34.34 Unplanned Outage Factor 33.62 29.84 1.22 1.30 1.20 1.49 2.09 2.04 2.08 2.23 1.86 1.69 1.23 1.24 1.29 2.22 Other Outage Factor 2.12 1.52 EAF: Ratio of the available energy generation over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. Outage Factors: Ratio of the energy losses over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. YTD: Year-to-Date (01 January of current year to current week)
52 Week Outlook MW RSA MW MW MW MW MW MW MW The maintenance plan included in these assumptions includes a base scenario of outages (planned risk level). As there is opportunity for further outages, these will be included. This likely risk scenario includes an additional 1500 MW of outages on the base plan. The expected import at Apollo is included. Avon and Dedisa is also included. The forecast used is the latest operational weekly residual peak forecast, which expected renewable generation. Operating Reserve Generation: 2 200 MW Unplanned Outage (UA): 13 000 MW Reserves: OR + UA = 15 200 MW Eskom Installed Capacity: 48 186 MW Installed Dispatchable Capacity: 49 191 MW (Incl. Avon and Dedisa) Week Start Week Residual Forecast Available Dispatchable Capacity 42831 42431 42431 43409 43344 43644 43409 43788 43788 44523 44523 43931 43931 44231 45408 46023 46213 46987 46987 47177 47377 47229 47177 47177 47100 47642 47642 47970 47622 47047 46407 45860 46179 45734 45901 46481 45963 44925 44545 44635 44351 43538 43708 42952 43065 42482 42355 43132 41939 40390 40190 Available Capacity (Less OR and UA) 27631 27231 27231 28209 28144 28444 28209 28588 28588 29323 29323 28731 28731 29031 30208 30823 31013 31787 31787 31977 32177 32029 31977 31977 31900 32442 32442 32770 32422 31847 31207 30660 30979 30534 30701 31281 30763 29725 29345 29435 29151 28338 28508 27752 27865 27282 27155 27932 26739 25190 24990 Planned Maintenance Unplanned Outage Assumption (UA) 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 Planned Risk Level (-15200 MW) 678 144 -44 554 175 358 233 712 284 954 895 237 -1842 -1815 -1130 -1198 -1406 -1562 -1735 -1872 -2490 -1744 -1797 -1628 -2210 -1220 -1194 -981 -1375 -1138 -1253 -1454 -1058 -1427 -1090 -159 198 -836 -1116 -436 -211 -724 -617 -1067 -824 -1224 -1304 -469 -1081 -1529 288 Likely Risk Senario (-16700 MW) -822 -1356 -1544 -946 -1325 -1142 -1267 -788 -1216 -546 -605 -1263 -3342 -3315 -2630 -2698 -2906 -3062 -3235 -3372 -3990 -3244 -3297 -3128 -3710 -2720 -2694 -2481 -2875 -2638 -2753 -2954 -2558 -2927 -2590 -1659 -1302 -2336 -2616 -1936 -1711 -2224 -2117 -2567 -2324 -2724 -2804 -1969 -2581 -3029 -1212 Contracted Forecast 28815 29104 29309 29444 29758 29875 29765 29650 29872 29937 30075 30141 32219 32493 32984 33668 33601 34531 34704 35031 35849 35053 35055 34886 35391 35153 35127 35242 35288 34476 34154 33807 33730 33641 33478 33126 32252 32248 32438 31837 31305 30945 31008 30887 30757 30574 30527 30584 30003 28902 26884 26953 27087 27275 27655 27969 28086 27976 27876 28304 28369 28428 28494 30573 30846 31338 32021 32419 33349 33522 33849 34667 33773 33774 33605 34110 33662 33636 33751 33797 32985 32460 32114 32037 31961 31791 31440 30565 30561 30461 29871 29362 29062 29125 28819 28689 28506 28459 28401 27820 26719 24702 6360 6760 6760 5782 5847 5547 5782 5403 5403 4668 4668 5260 5260 4960 3783 3168 2978 2204 2204 2014 1814 1962 2014 2014 2091 1549 1549 1221 1569 2144 2784 3331 3012 3457 3290 2710 3228 4266 4646 4556 4840 5653 5483 6239 6126 6709 6836 6059 7252 8801 9001 09-Jan-23 16-Jan-23 23-Jan-23 30-Jan-23 06-Feb-23 13-Feb-23 20-Feb-23 27-Feb-23 06-Mar-23 13-Mar-23 20-Mar-23 27-Mar-23 03-Apr-23 10-Apr-23 17-Apr-23 24-Apr-23 01-May-23 08-May-23 15-May-23 22-May-23 29-May-23 05-Jun-23 12-Jun-23 19-Jun-23 26-Jun-23 03-Jul-23 10-Jul-23 17-Jul-23 24-Jul-23 31-Jul-23 07-Aug-23 14-Aug-23 21-Aug-23 28-Aug-23 04-Sep-23 11-Sep-23 18-Sep-23 25-Sep-23 02-Oct-23 09-Oct-23 16-Oct-23 23-Oct-23 30-Oct-23 06-Nov-23 13-Nov-23 20-Nov-23 27-Nov-23 04-Dec-23 11-Dec-23 18-Dec-23 25-Dec-23 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 excludes the (OR) from Assumption Risk Level Green Yellow Orange Red Description Adequate Generation to meet Demand and Reserves. < 1 000MW Possibly short to meet Reserves 1 001MW 2 000MW Definitively short to meet Reserves and possibly Demand > 2 001MW Short to meet Demand and Reserves
Current Installed Capacity (MW) CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs) 500.0 2,287.1 3,442.6 6,280.2 Renewable Energy Statistics Note: Times are expressed as hour beginning Maximum Difference between Consecutive Evening Peaks (MW) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification) Maximum Contribution (MW) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification) Cal Year Indicator Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Total (Incl other REs) 1,744 07-Aug-2021 to 08-Aug-2021 828 30-Aug-2016 to 31-Aug-2016 1,038 19-Jun-2017 to 20-Jun-2017 1,336 01-Sep-2018 to 02-Sep-2018 1,464 05-Jul-2019 to 06-Jul-2019 1,488 31-Aug-2020 to 01-Sep-2020 1,744 07-Aug-2021 to 08-Aug-2021 1,523 07-Aug-2022 to 08-Aug-2022 691 05-Jan-2023 to 06-Jan-2023 Cal Year Indicator Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date CSP 506.2 PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs) 3,028.1 02-Dec-2022 16:00 1,229.8 23-Dec-2016 13:00 1,708.2 25-Dec-2017 18:00 1,902.3 02-Oct-2018 16:00 1,872.0 14-Dec-2019 15:00 2,113.9 01-Dec-2020 19:00 2,639.3 15-Dec-2021 17:00 3,028.1 02-Dec-2022 16:00 2,548.1 05-Jan-2023 19:00 2,099.5 5,126.1 All Time All Time 15-Mar-2022 15:00 200.9 11-Aug-2016 14:00 302.0 07-Nov-2017 10:00 399.7 04-Dec-2018 16:00 502.1 24-Sep-2019 11:00 504.5 25-Nov-2020 12:00 504.9 30-Nov-2021 16:00 506.2 15-Mar-2022 15:00 504.8 06-Jan-2023 13:00 24-Oct-2021 12:00 1,350.5 16-Dec-2016 12:00 1,432.5 27-Oct-2017 12:00 1,392.1 03-Oct-2018 12:00 1,375.6 19-Jan-2019 12:00 1,929.2 25-Nov-2020 12:00 2,099.5 24-Oct-2021 12:00 2,048.8 20-Nov-2022 11:00 1,870.1 10-Jan-2023 11:00 05-Sep-2022 12:00 2,576.3 23-Dec-2016 13:00 3,142.7 13-Dec-2017 13:00 3,298.9 28-Sep-2018 11:00 3,530.6 27-Oct-2019 13:00 4,050.0 24-Nov-2020 13:00 4,784.7 01-Nov-2021 13:00 5,126.1 05-Sep-2022 12:00 4,020.3 05-Jan-2023 15:00 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 2023 2023 Maximum proportion that Renewables contributed towards actual hourly energy supplied (%) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification) Annual Energy Contribution (MWh) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification) Cal Year All Time Maximum Indicator Annual Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs) Cal Year Indicator Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Total (Incl other REs) 19.3% 05-Sep-2022 12:00 9.8% 23-Dec-2016 13:00 12.7% 25-Dec-2017 15:00 13.1% 01-Jan-2018 14:00 13.9% 14-Dec-2019 14:00 16.1% 27-Dec-2020 15:00 19.1% 01-Nov-2021 13:00 19.3% 05-Sep-2022 12:00 16.7% 05-Jan-2023 13:00 1,656,017 5,069,146 9,692,373 16,202,974 All Time 529,522 2,630,141 3,730,771 6,951,261 2016 2016 687,703 3,324,857 5,081,023 9,198,632 2017 2017 1,031,288 3,282,124 6,467,095 10,887,902 2018 2018 1,557,151 3,324,989 6,624,642 11,586,945 2019 2019 1,626,049 4,140,212 6,625,830 12,478,704 2020 2020 1,656,017 5,069,146 8,359,224 15,208,327 2021 2021 1,448,276 4,844,736 9,692,373 16,202,974 2022 2022 92,904 292,873 484,358 886,443 2023 2023
