WILL OPEN BORDERS CHANGE YOUR NATION'S SAT SCORE?
The discussion delves into the potential effects of open borders on a nation's SAT scores, considering factors like historical roots, agricultural experience, technology adoption, and migration. Insights from economic theories and empirical experiments examine the long-term implications of open borders on economic development and technology heritage. The complex interplay between open borders, ancestral history, and income variations is also explored to assess the possible outcomes for different regions.
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WILL OPEN BORDERS CHANGE YOUR NATION S SAT SCORE? GARETT JONES GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY
IN THE SHORT RUN, 20 YEARS OR SO, THE NET BENEFITS OF OPEN BORDERS ARE CLEAR
GOOD ECON LOOKS AT THE 100+ YEAR LONG RUN TOO YO U R T H E O RY I S C O N F I N E D TO T H AT W H I C H I S S E E N ; I T TA K E S N O AC C O U N T O F T H AT W H I C H I S N OT S E E N . B A S T I AT, 1 8 5 0
WOULD OPEN BORDERS WOUND THE GOLDEN GOOSE?
THE DEEP ROOTS THEORY OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: A FIRST LOOK Spolaore and Wacziarg, Journal of Economic Literature, 2013.
WHATS YOUR NATIONS SAT SCORE? S: States: Time living under a non-tribal government A: Agriculture: Millennia of farming experience T: Technology: Index of past technology adoption (e.g., writing, metal, vehicles)
MIGRATION CHANGES YOUR NATION S SAT SCORE T H E P O S T- 1 5 0 0 WO R L D : A S E T O F O F T E N - B RU TA L E X P E R I M E N T S
THE A IN SAT: AGRICULTURAL HISTORY SOURCE: CHANDA, COOK, PUTTERMAN, 2014
TECHNOLOGY: THE T IN SAT, FROM THE NYT How would open borders adjust your nation s Migration- Adjusted Technology Heritage?
INSPECTING THE GOOSE: JUST THE AG CHANNEL Consider a purely hypothetical case: Open borders leads to an average ancestry- adjusted agricultural history North America s magic makes open borders doable: 30% average income decline, but maybe your descendants will be on top! Open borders for Hong Kong: 70% average decline, harder to imagine this as a winner for your descendants.
ONE WAY MIGRATION MIGHT MATTER: THE MOST CONTROVERSIAL SENTENCE IN MY NEW BOOK ON IQ [G]overnments are made by people, after all.
NATHAN NUNN OF HARVARD ON THE DEEP HISTORY THEORY OF DEVELOPMENT .the primary thing that migrants brought with them is themselves Along with the settlers also came their beliefs and values regarding freedom, liberty, equality, and the appropriate role of government. These were the crucial factors that determined the nature of the initial institutions that were established. Culture and the Historical Process, 2012, emphasis added.
ANCESTRY-ADJUSTED SAT+ PREDICTS GOOD INSTITUTIONS James B. Ang, Journal of Development Economics, 2013
YOUR NATIONS SAT SCORE MATTERS SO MUCH MORE THAN YOUR OWN
DO NEW VOTERS CHANGE THE GOVERNMENT? THE BEST-DOCUMENTED CASE: In the United States, the enfranchisement of women was associated with a 24% increase in state social spending Switzerland in 1971: 28% more social spending Source: Doepke, Tertilt, Voena. Annual Reviews in Economics, 2012. [M]ore liberal voting patterns and an increase in government expenditures A similar pattern has been observed in six Western European countries between 1869 and 1960.
LESSON: VOTER BELIEFS LAST, EVEN WHEN LIVING IN A COUNTRY FOR DECADES OT H E R S T U D I E S S H OW M I G R A N T S K E E P S O M E H O M E - C O U N T RY AT T I T U D E S F O R AT L E A S T 1 O R 2 G E N E R AT I O N S
PRESSING THE BUTTON FOR SINGAPORE? One alternative: Skilled migration with a partial focus on high SAT (States/Ag/Tech) countries One long-run alternative to open borders (cf. Canada or Hong Kong) Raising the U.S. SAT score to Singapore s: Maybe an 80% rise in long- run wages!
DIVERSITY AND THE RULE OF LAW, A CROSS COUNTRY LOOK BY EASTERLY ET AL.
AN AUTHOR ON THE OPEN BORDERS BLOG COMMENTING ON MY THEORY: .the claim that open borders would dramatically raise world GDP cannot withstand the hive mind hypothesis about the determination of GDP. Open Borders and the Hive Mind Hypothesis, Nathan Smith, 2015. The Hive Mind Hypothesis: Your fellow citizens shape your personal productivity, your income, your way of life, by shaping your government, your culture, and more. Your neighborhood s average skill level matters more than your own.
WHAT IS THIS HIVE MIND THEORY THAT IS SUCH A RISK TO OPEN BORDERS? The Hive Mind Hypothesis Your fellow citizens shape your personal productivity, your income, your worldview, by shaping your government, your culture, and more. A national economy is a team effort so Your nation s average skill level matters more than your own.
HOW WOULD A BILLION IMMIGRANTS CHANGE THE AMERICAN POLITY? From the Open Borders blog, 2015: governing a much larger population would necessitate improvisational and sometimes authoritarian expedients Certain American ideals would die of their own increasing impracticality, e.g., equality of employment, the social safety net, one person, one vote, or non-discrimination in employment.
HOW WOULD A BILLION IMMIGRANTS CONTINUED: If open borders included open voting, US political institutions would be overhauled very quickly as political parties reinvented themselves to appeal to the vast immigrant masses Many natives would retreat into gated communities, not so much from fear of crime as simply from love of the familiar.
THE OPTIMISTIC CONCLUSION OF A LEADING OPEN BORDERS ADVOCATE In short, I think the most wild-eyed predictions of the open borders optimists will come true, and to spare, but I think a lot of the forebodings of the grimmest open border pessimists will also prove more than justified.
A FINAL LOOK AT THE QUOTE, WITH MY COMMENTARY: In short, I think the most wild-eyed predictions of the open borders optimists will come true, and to spare, [in the short run] but I think a lot of the forebodings of the grimmest open border pessimists will also prove more than justified. [in the long run]
