Wind Forecast Accuracy Updates & Analysis
Explore the latest data on intra-hour wind forecast accuracy, error performance metrics, monthly trends, and projected wind ramp rate trends for September and beyond. Get insights into vendor performance and persistence options in wind forecasting operations.
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Intra-Hour Wind Forecast Accuracy Updates QMWG Operations Analysis 10/15/2018
Intra-Hour Wind Forecast Error (September 2018) Performance Metric Vendor A 43 Vendor B 152 Persistence* 66 Monthly MAE (MW) Monthly MAE when 5-Min. Wind Ramp > 100 MW 91 305 178 AWS Persistence * Persistence metric uses same historical data sent to vendors for fair comparison 2 PUBLIC
Monthly Trends 450 400 350 300 MAE (MW) 250 200 150 100 50 0 June 8-30 July 1-31 August 1-31 September 1-30 October 1-9 Persistence Baseline* Vendor A Performance Vendor B Performance * Persistence metric uses same historical data sent to vendors for fair comparison 3 PUBLIC
Monthly Trends (Wind Ramp > 100 MW) 450 400 350 300 MAE (MW) 250 200 150 100 50 0 June 8-30 July 1-31 August 1-31 September 1-30 October 1-9 Persistence Baseline* Vendor A Performance Vendor B Performance * Persistence metric uses same historical data sent to vendors for fair comparison 4 PUBLIC
SCR795 Update Projected Wind Ramp Rate (PWRR) Alarm: If wind is ramping in opposite direction than PWRR for X amount of intervals, i.e. not tracking, alarm is issued to operator Persistence Option: Will go into persistence (i.e. PWRR = 0) if PWRR is not tracking with actual ramp for X+Y amount of intervals Updated GTBD Equation: GTBD = Total Gen + K1*10*System Load Frequency Bias + K2*[(net non-conforming Load) (net filtered non- conforming Load)] + K3*5*PLRR + K4*Regulation Deployed + K5*ACE Integral K6*5*PWRR |PWRR| Max PWRR Thresh 5 PUBLIC
Projected Wind Ramp Rate (PWRR) Trends Ramp error will be actual error seen by SCED GTBD 180 160 140 120 MAE (MW) 100 80 60 40 20 0 June 8-30 July 1-31 August 1-31 September 1-30 October 1-9 Actual Wind Ramp PWRR Error * Only Vendor A s forecast was used to calculate PWRR 6 PUBLIC
Projected Wind Ramp Rate (PWRR) Trends Trends during times when Wind Ramp > 100 MW (both directions) 180 160 140 120 MAE (MW) 100 80 60 40 20 0 June 8-30 July 1-31 August 1-31 September 1-30 October 1-9 Actual Wind Ramp PWRR Error * Only Vendor A s forecast was used to calculate PWRR 7 PUBLIC
Example Impact of Projected Wind Ramp to GTBD 5-Min. SCED GTBD Error Due to Wind Ramp (7/2/2018 22:00 - 7/3/2018 03:00) 600 Regulation Deployed and Wind Ramp (MW) 400 Flat line indicates regulation exhaustion 200 0 -200 -400 Up to 400 MW down ramp in 5 minutes -600 7/2 22:00 7/2 23:00 7/3 0:00 7/3 1:00 7/3 2:00 7/3 3:00 Actual Wind Ramp PWRR Error Net Regulation Deployed 8 PUBLIC
Next Steps ERCOT will implement SCR795 during 2018 R5 between October 23 and October 25, 2018 Initially, K6 will be set to 0 so that it will not impact GTBD calculation A market notice will be sent out prior to initial activation of K6 to a non-zero value Market notice was sent out on September 24, 2018: http://www.ercot.com/services/comm/mkt_notices/archives/2916 9 PUBLIC
