Worcestershire Economic Strategy Measuring Success
The Worcestershire Economic Strategy aims to achieve targets for GVA, jobs, and housing by 2025 through strategic planning and interventions. The progress to date shows a mixed outlook due to the impact of COVID-19, with data analysis ongoing to assess the full effects. The strategy includes refreshing targets based on projected changes in jobs and GVA until 2040, supported by a detailed methodology involving various data sources and analysis. Additionally, pipeline projects in the region are set to contribute significantly to economic growth and development.
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Worcestershire Economic Strategy: Measuring Success 6th April 2021
Strategic Economic Plan Targets to 2025 The SEP set out targets for GVA, jobs and housing based on the expected impact of interventions identified in the strategy. Progress to date: Target to 2025 Progress to date GVA 2.9 billion 2.0 billion (2018) Jobs 25,000 38,000 (2019) Housing 21,500 15,990 (Q4 2020) Progress on GVA and jobs will be affected by COVID-19. Data showing the impact of COVID-19 will not be available until around October 2021 for jobs and 2022 for GVA.
Refreshing the targets: methodology Undertaking a similar exercise for the refreshed strategy to understand the potential impact of interventions on GVA, jobs and housing. Working with AMION to estimate the impact of pipeline projects to inform updating of targets Bottom up approach using data collated from: LGF 2015-2021/24; LEP project pipeline 2021-2030; 2021-2030 programme rolled forward for 2030-2040 Jobs and GVA assumptions informed by SPONS; Employment Density Guide; Cost per Job Benchmarks; BIS Wage Premia/Productivity research; Experian Forecasts used as the base
Current baseline projections Jobs Projected change in Jobs 2015-2040 (Full time equivalents, FTE) Jobs (FTE 000 s) 2015 Jobs (FTE 000 s) 2040 Change in Jobs 2015-2040 % Change (FTE 000 s) Bromsgrove 18.1% 37.1 43.8 6.7 Malvern Hills 7.6% 23.6 25.4 1.8 Redditch 8.4% 34.5 37.4 2.9 Worcester 9.5% 45.4 49.7 4.3 Wychavon 4.5% 47.1 49.2 2.1 Wyre Forest 2.0% 30.2 30.8 0.6 WLEP 8.4% 217.9 236.3 18.4 West Midlands 7.3% 2,255.11 2,420.83 165.72 United Kingdom 11.2% 26,571.43 29,548.56 2,977.13 Source: Experian Forecasts, Dec 2020
Current baseline projections - GVA Projected change in GVA 2015-2040 GVA 2015 ( m) GVA 2040 ( m) Change in GVA 2015-2040 % Change m Bromsgrove 30.6% 2,518.5 3,288.9 770.4 Malvern Hills 26.9% 1,406 1,784.8 378.8 Redditch 41.4% 1,954.9 2,765 810.1 Worcester 25.4% 2,768 3,471.3 703.3 Wychavon 32.4% 2,349.8 3,111.2 761.4 Wyre Forest 23.5% 1,347.4 1,664.7 317.3 WLEP 30.3% 12,344.6 16,085.9 3,741.3 West Midlands 39.3% 12,6364 175,996 4,9632 United Kingdom 45.6% 1,744,300 2,539,500 795,200 Source: Experian Forecasts, Dec 2020
Pipeline projects in the analysis LGF projects ( 71.7m) Malvern Hills Science Park (Phase 5) Pershore College Agri-tech research centre Southern Link Road (Phase 3) Kidderminster Rail Station Worcester Six Business Park META Hoobrook Link Road Inclusive Skills Base Centre (HoW) Flood Alleviation Programme Centre of Digital Engineering (HoW) Centre of Vocational Excellence The Kiln Worcestershire Parkway Rail Station QinetiQ Land Purchase Cathedral Square Pershore Northern Link Road Vale Park A38 Worcestershire Business Growth Fund Churchfields Midlands Group Training Services HoW Duckworth Centre for Engineering Broadband
Projected change in jobs and GVA post intervention Projected change in Worcestershire Jobs and GVA pre and post intervention 2015-2040 Business As Usual 2015-2040 (a) Intervention* 2015-2040 (b) Impact post-intervention 2015-2040 (a)+(b) Jobs (FTE) 18,400 18,259 36,659 16.8% GVA 3.7 Billion 2.6 Billion 6.3 Billion 51.0% *Includes new pipeline projects and LGF projects
Projected Jobs and GVA - Foundations of Productivity Additional jobs and GVA from pipeline projects with expenditure estimated at 862.2m: WLEP and Partners 790.5m inc 199m North Cotswold Line LGF 71.7m Foundations of Productivity By 2030 By 2040 Jobs GVA Jobs GVA Ideas 478 33.1m 956 72.2m People 134 48.2m 268 113.3m Infrastructure 1,443 273.6m 3,010 689.2m Business Environment 3,954 664.5m 7,908 1.34 bn Places 342 16.7m 908 45.7m Sub-total 6,350 1.04 bn 13,050 2.26 bn LGF 5,208 291.8m 5,208 291.8m Total 11,558 1.33bn 18,259 2.55bn
Implications for the labour market Additional jobs can be met primarily in one of 3 ways: Target to 2040 Additional FTE Jobs (BAU + Pipeline) 36,659 Increase in the employment rate Area currently has the same 16+ employment rates as UK (60.3%) But other counties are higher: Staffordshire 16+ 61.3% Warwickshire 16+ 63.1% Reduction in out-commuting implications for the delivery of higher value added jobs/higher wage rates to retain and attract workers to the area Increase in population implications for housing availability and type to retain people in the area (e.g. graduates; families; older workers) Total Employment (FTE)* 254,559 Total Jobs 292,596 2040 Population Projections (16+ population) 560,011 Working Residents ** 337,687 Net Balance (jobs - working residents) - 30% out commuting*** -56,216 Net Balance assuming 20% out commuting*** -22,446 Net Balance assuming employment rates increase to Warwickshire Levels with 30% out-commuting -45,240 Net Balance assuming employment rates increase to Warwickshire levels and 20% out-commuting -9,904 * FTE: Total Employment = 0.87:1 (average 2015-2019) ** Resident Employment Rate = 16+ 60.3% - (average 2015-2020); *** 2011 Census Commuter Flows = Worcestershire 30% out-commuting; Staffordshire 20% out-commuting
Refreshed Targets Refreshed targets include: Existing 25,000 and 2.9billion from the SEP Additional 13,050 Jobs by 2040 from pipeline projects Additional 2.26 Billion GVA by 2040 from pipeline projects Target to 2025 Target to 2030 Target to 2040 GVA 2.9 billion 3.9 billion 5.2 billion Jobs 25,000 31,350 38,050
