WP3 Monitoring and Evaluation Framework for Joint Action Health Equity in Europe

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Scope the systematic appraisal of project success in meeting outcomes and objectives. Evaluate why project aspects are or aren't implemented as planned. Plan for monitoring the delivery process, outputs, and outcomes to ensure project objectives are reached. Objectives include measuring achievement, assessing Joint Action, defining criteria and indicators, and developing implementation guidelines. Project evaluation based on continuous monitoring of processes, outputs, outcomes, and context, with a final evaluation of outcomes.

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The Fragmentation of International Trade: Impact of Trade Fragmentation in the Asia-Pacific Region Carlos Kuriyama APEC Policy Support Unit April 2024

China and the US are seeing lower market shares in each others imports Bilateral goods imports between China and the US in 2014Q2-2023Q4 (a) China imports from the US (b) US imports from China Market Share Value Market Share Value 60 10 200 25 (% to total imports) (% to total imports) Values (Billion USD) Values (Billion USD) 8 20 150 Market Share 40 Market Share 6 15 100 4 10 20 50 2 5 0 0 0 0 Source: APEC PSU calculations using data from the International Trade Centre (ITC) (accessed 19 March 2024). Difference in average shares between 2014Q2-2018Q4 and 2019Q2-2023Q4 2014Q2-2018Q4 (%) 2019Q2-2023Q4 (%) Difference (pp) China share of US goods imports 21.5 17.3 -4.1 US share of China goods imports 8.3 6.5 -1.7 2

China lost >10pp of market share in US imports across 195 products* Majority of these products are related to textiles, metals, and machines Number of China products that lost >10pp of market share in US imports, by product category 56 24 21 16 13 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 Note: Based on the difference in average shares between 2014Q2-2018Q4 and 2019Q2-2023Q4. Number of goods calculated using HS 4-digit product headings. Source: APEC PSU calculations using data from the ITC (accessed 19 March 2024). 3 *In comparison, the US lost >10pp of market share in China imports across 14 goods (without concentration in any product group).

But China gained >10pp of market share in US imports across 26 products* Majority of these products are related to minerals, chemicals, and metals Number of China products that gained >10pp of market share in US imports, by product category 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Note: Based on the difference in average shares between 2014Q2-2018Q4 and 2019Q2-2023Q4. Number of goods calculated using HS 4-digit product headings. Source: APEC PSU calculations using data from the ITC (accessed 19 March 2024). 4 *In comparison, the US gained >10pp of market share in China imports across 4 goods (without concentration in any product group).

China and the US are increasing trade with other partners Certain economies saw increased market shares in either s imports Partner economies that gained or lost >0.5pp of market share, by reporting economy imports (difference in average shares between 2014Q2-2018Q4 and 2019Q2-2023Q4) (a) China imports (b) US imports 2.7 3.0 1.7 1.4 1.31.2 1.1 1.00.80.5 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6-0.7-0.7-1.3-1.7-2.2 -4.1 Source: APEC PSU calculations using data from the ITC (accessed 19 March 2024). 5

Mexico gained >10pp of market share in US imports across 39 products* Majority of these are related to metals, chemicals, and transportation Number of Mexico products that gained >10pp of market share in US imports, by product category 10 6 5 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Note: Based on the difference in average shares between 2014Q2-2018Q4 and 2019Q2-2023Q4. Number of goods calculated using HS 4-digit product headings. Source: APEC PSU calculations using data from the ITC (accessed 19 March 2024). 6

Despite changes in trade, China and US FDI with each other proves sticky Bilateral inward FDI stock between China and the US in 2014-2022 (a) China inward FDI stock from the US (b) US inward FDI stock from China Market Share Value Market Share Value 100 4.0 50 1.0 (% to total FDI stock) (% to total FDI stock) Values (Billion USD) Values (Billion USD) 80 40 0.8 3.0 Market Share Market Share 60 30 0.6 2.0 40 20 0.4 1.0 20 10 0.2 0 0.0 0 0.0 2014 2018 2022 2014 2018 2022 Source: APEC PSU calculations using data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (accessed 21 March 2024). Difference in average shares between 2014-2017 and 2019-2022 2014-2017 (%) 2019-2022 (%) Difference (pp) China share of US inward FDI stock 0.7 0.7 0.0 US share of China inward FDI stock 2.9 2.5 -0.4 7

ASEAN is benefiting from developments in the last decade (1 of 4) ASEAN has surpassed China both in greenfield FDI and foreign value-added Market share of greenfield FDI projects between January 2003 and July 2022, by economy (%) Share of foreign value-added in gross exports in 2015, by category (%) ASEAN China 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Source: FDI Intelligence (https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/news/developing-asia-to-grow- faster-than-china-for-first-time-in-30-years-81486) Source: Lifted from Cerdeiro et al. (2021). (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/03/12/Sizing-Up- the-Effects-of-Technological-Decoupling-50125) 8

ASEAN is benefiting from developments in the last decade (2 of 4) The FDI gap between China and ASEAN has been narrowing Total inward FDI stock, by economy (billion USD) Source economies that gained >0.5pp of market share in ASEAN inward FDI stock 3.5 China ASEAN Difference 2.7 4,000 1.5 1.3 1.0 3,000 0.7 0.6 0.6 2,000 1,000 0 2014 2018 2022 Note: ASEAN inward FDI stock does not include Lao PDR; and Viet Nam due to data unavailability. Source: APEC PSU calculations using data from the IMF (accessed 21 March 2024). Note: Based on the difference in average shares between 2014-2017 and 2019-2022. Inward ASEAN FDI stock does not include Lao PDR; and Viet Nam due to data unavailability. Source: APEC PSU calculations using data from the IMF (accessed 21 March 2024). 9

ASEAN is benefiting from developments in the last decade (3 of 4) Many ASEAN economies have attracted greenfield FDI Announced greenfield FDI in selected economies, January-June 2022 (million USD) 8,181 6,230 4,195 3,658 2,456 2,014 1,540 1,256 1,079 474 35 Singapore China Malaysia Viet Nam Japan Korea Indonesia The Thailand Cambodia Myanmar Philippines Source: FDI Intelligence (https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/data-trends/singapore-leads-fdi-into-asean-in-2022-81509) 10