2024 Investment Outlook Insights
This Investment Outlook for 2024 provides a comprehensive analysis of various factors impacting investment decisions, including growth, inflation, interest rates, company earnings, China's market, green thematic trends, and central macro themes with risk scenarios. The report also highlights portfolio positioning recommendations based on current market conditions and potential future outcomes. Explore key insights to inform your investment strategies for the year ahead.
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Presentation Transcript
2024 Investment Outlook 2024 Investment Outlook November 2023
Growth and Inflation Past performance is not a reliable guide to future returns Source: Bloomberg 2024 Investment Outlook 2
Interest Rates Past performance is not a reliable guide to future returns 2024 Investment Outlook 3
Company Earnings Past performance is not a reliable guide to future returns 2024 Investment Outlook 4
China Past performance is not a reliable guide to future returns 2024 Investment Outlook 5
Green Thematic Source: JP Morgan Guide to the Markets Nov 23 - Climate Watch, Our World in Data, World Resource Institute, Renewables include hydro, wind, solar and biomass fuels. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future returns 2024 Investment Outlook 6
Central Macro Themes and Risk Scenarios Bear Case Base Case Central themes Bull Case Upside risk scenarios Downside risk scenarios Growth Growth Central banks induce a deep and prolonged global recession or financial instability Growth Growth Growth slows with some shallow recessions Growth Growth Central banks engineer a soft landing Inflation Inflation At or near peak central bank policy rates. Tight policy stance through H1 24 until inflation and wages reliably moderate. Savings drawdown and income levels insulate consumption Consumption collapses as savings evaporate and credit conditions become constrained Inflation Inflation Inflation falls more rapidly, easing pressures on the cost of living Inflation Inflation Financial instability forces policy easing which creates another round of inflation Global headline inflation falls, core sticky. Both remain at a tolerable level above 2% targets Margin compression forces inflation to slow quicker than expected Stagflation as growth stifled without inflation being tamed Other Other Considerations Considerations Energy and food prices stabilise at higher levels, risks remain to the upside Other Other Considerations Considerations Other Other Considerations Considerations Commodity prices reaccelerate Diplomatic resolution of the Ukraine war Green transition targets are reviewed to include energy security considerations New geopolitical shocks Trade frictions from geopolitical risks Source: Charles Stanley Investment Strategy Forum Sept 23 2024 Investment Outlook 7
Portfolio Positioning Past performance is not a reliable guide to future returns 2024 Investment Outlook 8
Important information The value of investments can fall as well as rise. Investors may get back less than invested. Past performance is not a reliable guide to the future. not be used as a basis for, or a component of, any financial instruments or products or indices. Further, none of the Information can in and of itself be used to determine which securities to buy or sell or when to buy or sell them. None of the ESG Parties shall have any liability for any errors or omissions in connection with any data herein, or any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each person or entity and may be subject to change in the future. Although Charles Stanley's information providers, including without limitation, MSCI ESG Research LLC and its affiliates (the ESG Parties ), obtain information (the Information ) from sources they consider reliable, none of the ESG Parties warrants or guarantees the originality, accuracy and/or completeness, of any data herein and expressly disclaim all express or implied warranties, including those of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. The Information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may Charles Stanley & Co. Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority A member of the London Stock Exchange and is part of the Raymond James Financial, Inc. group of companies. Registered in England number 1903304. Registered office: 55 Bishopsgate, London EC2N 3AS. 9
