Impact of COVID-19 on Data Analysis for Canada Census 2021

Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Data Analysis and Comparability Over Time Considerations for Canada and Census 2021

The Importance of the Census The Census is one of the foundational data sources for understanding Canadian society: It is a key resource for disaggregated data on different populations It is a key resource for measuring trends over time, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic Extensive engagement with data users enables the Census to be responsive to changing data needs It is rigorously tested to ensure data is of the highest possible quality 1

Factors Affecting Census 2021 Collection: Minimal in person enumeration; Delays due to wildfires and other factors in remote regions; Lockdown effects: Regional approach to lockdowns introducing inconsistencies; Borders closed to immigration; government support programs affect time series; Content and processing changes from previous Census: Changes to some returning questions; introduction of machine learning for coding; increase in online response rate. All these changes will improve data quality but can potentially cause some breaks in the time series 3

Data Certification will be Key Given uncertainties surrounding Census 2021 and the potential impact on analysis and comparability over time, full data certification is important In this context, the certification implies engagement activities for validation, ensuring we have a complete and accurate picture Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, we had already introduced numerous improvements to our certification process for Census 2021, including but not limited to: Outlier identification and verification Checks to ensure that no systematic error has been introduced Consulting with internal and external experts when necessary New steering committee on Census certification In addition, each census subject matter area is required to include a section on the COVID-19 pandemic in their own certification strategy to describe the process implemented to mitigate risks. 4

Approaches to address issues and incorporate the impact of COVID in the analysis Stakeholder engagement ahead of releases through certification and peer review/consultation activities Pre-releases to help tell parts of the story/add context For example: This was a moment in time, but things have evolved since Within articles, specifically address COVID impacts by: Discussing trends affected by COVID Providing contextual pieces and explanatory boxes Adding comparisons to our peers/other countries to ground findings Analyzing more recent data points and sources and contrasting them with findings from the Census 5

Specific examples of Census Subject Matter Areas Impacted by the COVID-19 Pandemic (1/2) Labour and Commuting Findings have to be positioned within context of a continuingly evolving labour market (unemployment continuing to drop, etc.) Analysis/releases from alternative sources (e.g., Labour Force Survey) will help contextualize Census results Income Analysis of the impact of COVID support programs on poverty and the income distribution by combining Census and data from support program (e.g., Canada Recovery Benefit; Employment Insurance; Canada Child Benefit) Disaggregated analysis by demographic and socioeconomic groups and geography Housing Important context pieces about the effect of COVID on the housing market will be disseminated ahead of the housing release using other sources (e.g., Canada Housing Survey) Releases will then focus on the people in homes 6

Specific examples of Census Subject Matter Areas Impacted by the COVID-19 Pandemic (2/2) Immigration Border closures and restrictions affected the immigration patterns and also population counts The analysis for these releases will therefore include specific discussions and focus on these changes Families, households and marital status The analysis will assess the transitional and long-term impact of the pandemic on family structures and living arrangements It will be enriched by consultations with stakeholders and other data sources filling gaps in the Census E.g., Canadian Social Survey content on changes in conjugal status, fertility intentions, living arrangements since the pandemic 7

Communications will be key The uncertain impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Census 2021 make reference products and specific communications extremely important Users will need to know exactly what they can and cannot expect from Census 2021 data The Guide to the Census of Population and the topic-specific Reference Guides will address the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the data. Just as with certification, each subject matter area will address the impact of the COVID pandemic on the data relevant to them (both collection and quality) There will be communications related to the COVID-19 pandemic in all release materials, including footnotes in all data tables and releases 8

In conclusion The full impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on analysis and comparability over time are still unclear We knew already that our content changes and use of machine learning in processing for Census 2021 would have an impact on data comparability over time. We expect that our collection changes and data certification approaches mitigated the potential negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Importantly, the Census will play a key role in helping illuminate the impacts of the pandemic on Canadian society. 9