Insights on Unemployment Trust Fund Status and Related Issues
Explore the current status of the Unemployment Trust Fund and associated issues as of July 20, 2020. Dive into data on trust fund balances, solvency levels, state tax averages, and distribution of tax rates for 2019 and 2020. Stay informed about forecasted figures and projections to understand the economic landscape.
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Status of the Unemployment Trust Fund and Related Issues Commission on Unemployment Compensation Ellen Marie Hess, Commissioner July 20, 2020
Trust Fund DataStandard Forecast (Millions of Dollars) 2 2019 2020 January 1 Balance $1,307.2 $1,451.9 Tax Revenue $378.7 $376.0* Interest Revenue $34.2 $30.4* Benefits $267.8 $2.6 Billion* December 31 Balance $1,452.5 -$750.0* Solvency Level (6/30) 83.4% 86.1 % *Projected
June 30 Trust Fund Balances and Solvency Levels (As of July 7, 2020) 3 $1,459 $1,600 83% $1,312 79% $1,400 $1,194 76% $1,200 $1,029 68% $1,000 $825 57% $757 64% Millions $800 $564 $500 28% 40% $600 $335 $291 $400 24% 24% $135 9% $200 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ($80) -6% ($104) -8% -$200 Trust Fund Solvency shown as a percent (%) *negative amounts indicate periods of borrowing from the Federal government *2020 is projected
Average Total State Tax (As of July 7, 2020) 4 $250 $16.00 $16.00 $16.00 $16.00 $30.40 $200 $42.40 $17.60 $16.00 $37.60 $11.20 $16.00 $5.60 Cost per Employee $150 $22.40 $2.40 Fund Builder $0.80 Pool $1.60 Base $100 $6.40 $187.60 $187.40 $0.80 $177.60 $166.60 $161.40 $151.40 $131.60 $127.60 $116.20 $50 $97.40 $96.60 $89.20 $69.94 $0 $99 $103 $166 $215 $236 $234 $221 $194 $157 $134 $100 $90 $70 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Calendar Year
Pool Taxes (As of July 7, 2020) 5 45 $42.40 40 $37.60 35 $30.40 30 Cost per Employee 25 $22.40 20 $17.60 15 $11.20 10 $6.40 $5.60 5 $2.40 $1.60 $0.80 $0.80 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Calendar Year
Distribution of 2019 and 2020 Base Tax RatesComputed and Assigned Rates 6 Tax Rates Computed Number of Employers 2019* 152,127 Percent of Total 2020 159,280 2019* 52.56% 2020 70.87% 0.10% 13,967 14,092 4.83% 6.27% 0.11%-0.99% 7,769 7,962 2.68% 0.87% 1.00%-1.99% 4,628 4,246 15.99% 1.89% 2.00%-2.99% 3,229 2,426 1.12% 1.08% 3.00%-3.99% 1,950 1,865 0.67% 0.83% 4.00%-4.99% 1,422 1,274 0.49% 0.57% 5.00%-5.99% 308 121 0.11% 0.05% 6.00%-6.19% 7,572 6,591 2.62% 2.93% 6.20% Assigned** 52,827 30,257 18.25% 13.46% New, 2.50% 1,506 2261 0.52% 1.01% Delinquent, 6.20% 459 378 0.16% 0.17% Foreign Contractor, 6.20% 5 0 0.00% 0.00% Other, 6.20% 289,430 224,753 100.0% 100.0% Total Taxable wage base is $8,000. *excluding 0.01% pool tax. **As of January 2, 2020 these figures are subject to revision.
Claims Filed 7 Calendar Year Initial Claims 2014 253,030 2015 210,080 2016 198,912 2017 168,028 2018 144,166 2019 135,064 2020 (Jan. June) 952,750* * Annual claims projected to be 1,450,000.
UI Initial Claims 2018 - 2020 (year to date) 8 400,000 COVID-19 has pushed Total initial claims to historic levels. 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 2020
UI Final Payments 2018 - 2020 (year to date) 9 For the first six months of 2020, final payments are up 167% from 2019 and up 136% from 2018. 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 2020
Exhaustion Rates 2018 - 2020 (year to date) 10 52.0% The exhaustion rate in June was 50.7%, up from last June's 34.9%. 50.0% 48.0% 46.0% 44.0% Exhaustion Rate 42.0% 40.0% 38.0% 36.0% 34.0% 32.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2018 Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020
Virginias Unemployment Rates 2018 - 2020 (year to date) 11 (not seasonally adjusted) 11.4 10.8 10.2 9.6 9.0 8.4 Percent of Labor Force 7.8 7.2 6.6 6.0 5.4 4.8 4.2 3.6 3.0 2.4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 2020
Total Nonfarm Employment Over-the-year Growth (seasonally adjusted data) 12 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Virginia, -9.1% -10.0% USA, -11.7% -12.0% -14.0% -16.0%
June 2020 Labor Force Participation Rates and Unemployment Rates (Fourth Circuit States) 13 (Seasonally Adjusted) Participation Rate* (Percent) Unemployment Rate (Percent) State 68.1 8.6 District of Columbia 67.1 8 Maryland 57.4 7.6 North Carolina 59.0 8.7 South Carolina 64.4 8.4 Virginia 53.1 10.4 West Virginia 61.5 11.1 U.S. * Participation Rate = civilian labor force divided by non-institutional civilian population age 16 and above.
Fourth Circuit States 14 Trust Fund Balance (Millions) (3/31/2020) Average Tax per Employee (year ending 9/30/2019) Average Tax Rate (year ending 9/30/2019) 2019 Taxable Wage Base 2019 Maximum Weekly Benefit 2019 2019 State Potential Duration (Weeks) Maximum Weekly Benefit Replacement Rate DC $438 $513 $218 2.42 $9,000 27% 26 MD $430 $1,213 $162 1.91 $8,500 39% 26 NC $350 $4,042 $146 0.60 $24,300 38% 12-20 SC $326 $1,095 $188 1.34 $14,000 39% 13-20 VA $378 $1,430 $95 1.19 $8,000 36% 12-26 WV $424 $134 $334 2.78 $12,000 53% 26 US Avg. $445 $313 1.69 $18,497 43%
Treasury Offset Program (TOP) 15 The IRS Treasury Offset Program (TOP) allows the VEC to submit overpayment debts resulting from unemployment insurance fraud to the IRS to intercept federal tax refunds. July 1, 2019 through June 30, 2020, the VEC has collected $1,585,300.92 from the IRS. Participation in this program is mandated under federal law and the Code of Virginia ( 2.2-4806). All recovered debt must be deposited in the Unemployment Trust Fund. The above amount was collected against 31,448 records that had overpayments due to unreported earnings.
Military Trailing Spouse UpdateImpact of Military Trailing Spouse Benefits 16 FY Benefits Claimants CY Solvency Levels CY Base Tax Rates CY Pool Tax Rates 2015 $658,597 212 2015 -0.1 percentage point 2016 Unaffected 2016 Unaffected 2016 $231,050 76 2016 -0.1 percentage point 2017 Unaffected 2017 Unaffected 2017 $722,720 245 2017 -0.1 percentage point 2018 Unaffected 2018 Unaffected 2018 $652,705 223 2018 -0.1 percentage point 2019 Unaffected 2019 Unaffected 2019 $747,101 324 2019 -0.1 percentage point 2020 Unaffected 2020 Unaffected 2020 $525,085 221 2020 -0.1percentage point 2021 Unaffected 2021 Unaffected Current law sunsets December 31, 2020
17 CONTACT: Ellen Marie Hess, Commissioner: 804-786-3001 EllenMarie.Hess@vec.virginia.gov
