Mastering Multicollinearity in Regression Analysis

Mastering Multicollinearity in Regression Analysis
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In regression analysis, multicollinearity can impact the significance of variables. Learn how to identify and address multicollinearity to improve the accuracy of your regression models. Understand why dropping correlated variables carefully is crucial for meaningful results.

  • Regression
  • Multicollinearity
  • Analysis
  • Variables

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  1. STANDING COMMITTEE ON PUBLIC ACCOUNTS INVESTIGATIONS CONDUCTED BY THE GAUTENG FORENSIC INVESTIGATION UNIT DURING THE 2019/20 FY 05 February 2021

  2. PRESENTATION OUTLINE 1. Purpose 2. Growing Gauteng Together (GGT2030) 3. Governance Roadmap 4. Problem Statement 5. Integrity Management Framework 6. Gauteng Anti-Corruption Strategy 7. Overview of the Gauteng Anti-Corruption Strategy Prevention Detection Investigation Resolution 8. Conclusion 2

  3. PURPOSE The purpose of the presentation is: To update the Standing Committee on Public Accounts [SCOPA] on the implementation of the GPG Integrity Management Framework and Forensic Investigations in the GPG. - 3

  4. GROWING GAUTENG TOGETHER (GGT2030) Growing Gauteng Together (GGT2030), is a plan of action adopted by the 6th Provincial Administration in our province as a roadmap to the Gauteng we want by 2030. GGT2030 is anchored on 7 PRIORITIES, 28 STRATEGIES and 160 INTERVENTIONS across economic and social sectors as well as geographic spaces that make up the Gauteng City Region. The Transformation, Modernisation and Re-industrialization of the Gauteng City Region, Revitalisation of the Township Economy and Clean Governance remain the critical policy imperatives that underpin GGT2030. The success of the plan depends a capable, ethical and developmental that works in partnership with the private sector, civil society and an active citizenry. 4

  5. GOVERNANCE ROADMAP The Governance Roadmap focuses, amongst others, on improving good governance in the Gauteng City Region: the development of a GPG-wide Integrity Management Policy. The GCR Integrity Policy and Framework was adopted, by the Executive Council, in 2016 underpinned by the Gauteng Anti-Corruption Strategy. The Integrity Management Policy and Framework is building the culture of integrity among public officials, public servants, businesspeople and civil society in building an integrity driven Gauteng City Region. The Memorandum of Understanding signed with the Special Investigating Unit in 2017 to fast track the finalisation of investigations. The Premier appointed a Civil Society-led Gauteng Ethics Advisory Council (GEAC) to drive building an ethical culture in the GCR. 5

  6. PROBLEM STATEMENT

  7. PROBLEM STATEMENT NATURE OF GPG CORRUPTION CASES CORRUPTION WATCH REPORT Other, 10% Bribery, 4% Misuse of GG vehicle, 6% Housing irregualrities, 6% Illegal selling of state land, 5% Procurement/Su pply Chain Irregularities, 52% Human Resource Issues, 7% Declaration of interest, 4% Officials doing business with state , 1% Theft , 5% 7 7

  8. INTEGRITY MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK Integrity Management Methodology Integrity Management Internal Control Framework Integrity Management Pillars Pillar 1: Structures Leadership Philosophy and Leadership Style GCR Governance Structures GPG/ Municipal Governance Ethical Values Institutional infrastructures Pillar 2: Instruments Organisational Culture Determining and Defining GCR Guiding Compliance Policy Framework Institutions Business and Operations Monitoring Enforcing Delegations of Authority and Responsibility Pillar 3: Processes Standards/Guidelines Information Security Management System Change management 8 Personnel Security and Vetting System Communication and awareness

  9. OVERVIEW OF THE ANTI-CORRUPTION STRATEGY 9

  10. GAUTENG ETHICS ADVISORY COUNCIL The Gauteng Provincial Government established the GEAC which is a civil society-led body intended to further strengthen partnerships to promote integrity and fight corruption. The Honourable Premier has reappointed the members of the GEAC to serve for another term (2020 2024). Key deliverable thus far are as follows: Enhancement of the GEAC Programme of Action in consideration of the current challenges in the fight against corruption and in support of the Executive Council. Allocation of workstreams and finalisation of the outstanding projects from the last term. The GEAC participated in the national process and contributed to the development of the National Anti-Corruption Strategy. The GEAC has noted the approval of the National Anti-Corruption Strategy by the National Cabinet and will be facilitating the review of the Gauteng Anti-Corruption Strategy after it has been officially launched. 10

  11. GAUTENG ETHICS ADVISORY COUNCIL PROGRAMME OF ACTION Some of the key deliverables on the GEAC Programme of Action include the following: OUTCOMES / OBJECTIVES TASKS PREVENTION Promote ethical Leadership & management practices, transparent governance and ethical decision making in the Public Sector. Identify and bring forward significant ethical issues, those with large scale and multidisciplinary impact, to the attention of policy makers and academics for further investigation, review and recommendation policies and measures to be implemented. Propose Legislation/Policies outcomes of the researches. Including: Executive Accountability performance management incentives for good ethical behaviour Sectoral Anti-Corruption Strategy GCR Ethics Management Programme based on the framework system and with 11

  12. GAUTENG ETHICS ADVISORY COUNCIL PROGRAMME OF ACTION OUTCOMES / OBJECTIVES TASKS DETECTION AND INVESTIGATION Focused detection reviews (data analytics) and investigations in high risk departments (focus on contracts above R10 000 000). Improved integrity of the public procurement system to ensure fair, effective and efficient use of public resources Health Infrastructure Social Development Roads and Transport Education High risk high impact focused detection reviews (data analytics) and investigations root out syndicates and etc. Improved investigations on corrupt activities across government, business and civil society sectors 12

  13. GAUTENG ETHICS ADVISORY COUNCIL PROGRAMME OF ACTION OUTCOMES / OBJECTIVES TASKS PROSECUTION Improved fostering relationship with LEAs and improved reporting of material criminal cases for investigation by Members of the Executive Council. consequence management through Ensure signing of MoUs with LEAs to prioritise and expedite criminal investigation and prosecutions for Gauteng City Region Cases 100% of financial misconduct and economic crimes cases R100 000 in government reported to LEAs for investigation RECOVERY Advice and monitor reporting of financial misconduct and economic crimes cases concluded to Asset Forfeiture Unit for recovery Improved recovery of government assets lost through financial misconduct and economic crimes concluded. 13

  14. PREVENTION

  15. STRENGTHENING ETHICAL CULTURE IN GAUTENG CITY REGION A strong ethical culture is the foundation of clean governance. This is created through a robust ethics programme that sets expectations for acceptable behaviour s in conducting business within the department and with departmental stakeholders. It includes, amongst others, the following: Effective Executive oversight. Strong tone-at-the-top. Senior management involvement. Awareness of ethics policies and procedures. Timely follow-up and investigation of reported incidents. Consistent disciplinary action for offenders. Ethics training, communications On-going monitoring systems. An anonymous incident reporting system. 15

  16. DETECTION

  17. VETTING AND LIFESTYLE AUDITS Insistence on the vetting of all SMS and SCM officials and lifestyle audits will assist with prevention and detection of potential fraud and corruption. Currently, the SSA has completed the vetting 65% of SMS and 70% of SCM officials. 100% vetting of both categories will contribute to a culture of integrity. The State Security Agency has been authorized to conduct lifestyle audits on members of the Gauteng Executive Council and their spouses. Further to this, lifestyle audits should be extended to all public representatives at all levels. The State Security Agency has indicated that their work on Lifestyle Audits is conducted under national guidelines and timeframes, so we have to await their process. 30

  18. OFFICIALS DOING BUSINESS WITH THE STATE In terms section 8(2) of the Public Service Administration Management Act, 2014 (No. 11 of 2014) and Regulation 13(c) of the Public Service Regulations (2016) employees are not allowed to conduct business with the state.) The Office of the Premier has received from the Department of Public Service and Administration (DPSA) a list of employees in Gauteng who are directors of companies conducting business with the state. The employees whose companies are conducting business with the State are in contravention of the laws mentioned above. The Office of the Premier has requested the Departments to investigate the alleged contraventions and report on the actions taken. This includes opening of criminal cases, instituting disciplinary actions and recovering money lost to departments. The reports stating actions taken are currently being analysed by the Office of the Premier and a consolidated report will be provided to the DPSA. 31

  19. WHISTLE BLOWING MECHANISMS AND DATABASES Matters reported through the National Anti-Corruption Hotline receive special attention and are prioritised. Gauteng Ethics Hotline a 24-hour toll free platform with various reporting channels. This also enable the Gauteng Provincial Government employees, contractors, suppliers and other interested parties to raise concerns relating to unlawful, irregular and or suspicious corrupt related activities or conducts. The databases for these allegations that are received are updated on regular basis. 32

  20. INVESTIGATION

  21. MOU WITH SPECIAL INVESTIGATING UNIT The Office of the Premier has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Special Investigating Unit. The MoU signed between OOP and SIU provides for the that secondment of personnel where a need arises for either party to dedicate a resource to the other Party. Hence, OOP is continuing to track progress on all the matters which were referred to SIU. 34

  22. REFERRALS TO THE SPECIAL INVESTIGATING UNIT In total, fourteen (14) have been referred for investigation by the SIU and they are as follows: Seven complaints from the Gauteng Provincial Government departments; Four matters on flagship projects that were implemented by the Gauteng Provincial Government; and Three additional complaints which were submitted by whistle blowers directly to the SIU. 35

  23. STATUS ON GPG INVESTIGATION Department Years Received Pool Planning Execution Reporting Finalised 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 15 12 27 1 1 1 - - - 3 2 2 3 4 16 - - - 1 - - - - - - 1 - - 4 - 1 1 - 2 2 4 - - - - - - 1 1 - 6 6 5 - 1 - - - - 1 1 - HEALTH DED 1 - - - - - 2 - - - - - - COGTA GDARD 23

  24. STATUS ON GPG INVESTIGATION Department Years Received Pool Planning Execution Reporting Finalised 2018/2019 6 - 2 - 1 3 DRT 2019/2020 7 1 1 4 - 1 2020/2021 10 4 3 - - 3 2018/2019 4 - - - 2 2 GPT 2019/2020 1 - - 1 - 2020/2021 - - - - - - 2018/2019 - - - - - - GSARC 2019/2020 6 - - - 1 5 2020/2021 1 1 - - - - 2018/2019 4 - - 1 - 3 DSD 2019/2020 5 - 4 - - 1 2020/2021 2 - - - - 2 24

  25. STATUS ON GPG INVESTIGATION Department Years Received Pool Planning Execution Reporting Finalised 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 4 2 2 3 2 1 2 4 5 3 5 2 - - - - - 1 - - 1 - 1 - - - 1 - - - - - - 1 - - - - - - 1 - - 1 2 1 - - 1 - - 2 - - - - - 1 - - 3 2 1 1 1 - 2 3 2 - 4 2 DID DCS DHS GDE 25

  26. STATUS ON GPG INVESTIGATION Department Years Received Pool Cases Planning Execution Reporting Finalised 2018/2019 - - - - - - OOP 2019/2020 2 - - - - 2 2020/2021 1 - - - - 1 2018/2019 1 - - - 1 E-GOV 2019/2020 2 - 1 - - 1 2020/2021 1 - 1 - - - 2018/2019 - - - - - - CRADLE 2019/2020 2020/2021 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 1 - 1 - 1 - - - - - - - - - 1 - - - - - 1 - 1 - - - - - - - GGDA 26

  27. STATUS ON GPG INVESTIGATION Received Pool cases Department Years Planning Execution Reporting Finalised 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2 - - - - - 1 - - - 1 - GAUTENG TOURISM ASSOCIATION GAUTENG LIQUOR BOARD 1 1 - - 1 - - 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 - - 1 - - - - 1 - - - - - - 2 - GAUTENG FILM COMMISSION GAUTENG GAMBLING BOARD 27

  28. STATUS ON GPG INVESTIGATION Received Pool Cases Planning Department Years Execution Reporting Finalised MERAFONG 2018/2019 - - - -- - - 2019/2020 - - - - - - 2020/2021 1 - - - - 1 28

  29. INVESTIGATIONS RELATING TO THE PERIOD WHICH ENDED 31 MARCH 2019 OOP There were no investigations conducted on behalf of the Office of the Premier for the period 2018/2019.

  30. INVESTIGATIONS RELATING TO THE YEAR UNDER REVIEW 2019/2020 - OOP Two (2) investigations were conducted for the Office of the Premier and have both been finalized ALLOCATED CASES FOR 2019-2020 INTERNAL EXTERNAL Estimated Date of Issuing Final Report No ALLEGATIONS DEPARTMENT STATUS OF INVESTIGATION Forensic investigation into alleged fraud - Are Shomeng Mmogo Trading Pty Ltd OoP and Emfuleni abuse of GG 1 OOP Internal Closed Closed 2 Abuse of Government Vehicle by officials at OOP OOP Internal 29/11/2019 Completed

  31. INVESTIGATIONS RELATING TO THE CURRENT FINANCIAL YEAR, I.E 01 APRIL 2020 TO DECEMBER 2020 OOP One (1) project was received, analysed and closed at lead stage for Office of the Premier ALLOCATED CASES FOR 2020-2021 INTERNAL EXTERNAL No ALLEGATIONS DEPARTMENT Estimated Date of Issuing Final Report STATUS OF INVESTIGATIONS 1 OoP Theft of laptops at OOP Closed N/A Closed

  32. ANALYSIS OF CASES (OFFICE OF THE PREMIER) Total no of cases Forensic Cases # of # of # of # of # of Total amount recovered Internal controls recomm ended Internal controls Implemen ted No of officials involved and levels disciplinary cases recommend ed disciplin ary cases Impleme nted Criminal Cases recomme nded Criminal Cases Reported Recoveri es cases / Amounts 2 24 1 complete d (5) In- progress 18 not impleme nted 0 N/A 7 Civil cases 7 - Not implemented 12 12 not implement ed 12 officials involved (R2,576.6 0)

  33. FINALISED CASES PER DEPARTMENT Category Key Findings Abuse of GG vehicle and petrol card Contravention of paragraph 5.1.4.4 of Transport Policy (failing to keep log sheets) Contravention of paragraph 4.4.8 of code of conduct Contravention of paragraph 45 (a) and (b) of PFMA of code of conduct for gross misuse of petrol card; Paragraph 13.5 of Transport Policy (abuse of petrol card) Procurement irregularities/Nepotism/ Contravention of section 16A.6.5 of Treasury Regulations (Splitting of PO s to avoid tender process) Contravention of par. 15 & 17 of OoP SCM Policy Failing to exercise due diligence and partially performing duties Contravening section 38(1)(h) of PFMA irregular expenditure Contravention of section 48 (b) of PFMA and C4.4 and C4.9 of Code of Ethics 33

  34. TOTAL AMOUNT PAID FOR INVESTIGATIONS DURING THE FY 2019/2020 A total number of investigations conducted in-house by PFA are forty-three (44) which includes six (6) requests for investigations that were referred back to the Departments A total of fourteen (13) investigations were conducted by external Agencies The total amount paid for investigations for the 2019/2020 financial year is R 15,366,405.30 (See Annexure B for details)

  35. PLAN OF THE OFFICE OF THE PREMIER TO MINIMIZE/ELIMINATE FINANCIAL IRREGULARITIES, FINANCIAL MISCONDUCT AND FRAUD The Fraud Prevention Plans of each Department outlines the measures that will be put in place to detect, prevent, investigate and resolution of matters relating to fraud and corruption. As part of Fraud Detection initiatives, the Provincial Forensic Audit proactively conducts data analytics and investigation in high-risk areas focusing on high value transactions.

  36. RESOLUTION

  37. SUMMARY OF FINALISED FORENSIC INVESTIGATION CASES

  38. SUMMARY OF FINALISED FORENSIC INVESTIGATION CASES

  39. CONSEQUENCE MANAGEMENT Consequence management is a key component of improving the ethical culture of the Gauteng Provincial Government and curbing corruption. More than 400 investigations have been completed with a total of 1027 recommendations - 311 of these recommendations have been fully implemented, another recommendations 360 currently being completed and 390 lacking substantial progress. Some of the cases will lead to the recovery of funds; others have been referred to the police, while some are disciplinary matters. 45

  40. INTERVENTIONS TO IMPROVE RECOVERY OF ASSETS The Office of the Premier seeks to improve the recovery of assets by implementing the following interventions: Strengthen relations with the Asset Forfeiture Unit (AFU) guidance was provided by the AFU, to the Provincial Anti-Corruption Co-ordinating Committee (PACCC). Facilitate the recovery through the Special Tribunal at the Special Investigating Unit. Tracking the implementation of the recommendations of the final forensic investigation reports. Monitoring recovery of funds by the Gauteng Audit Committee. 46

  41. STRENGTHENING CONSEQUENCE MANAGEMENT Consequence management is a key component of improving the ethical culture of the Gauteng Provincial Government and curbing corruption The Public Finance Management Act, 1999 (1 of 1999) and its regulations clearly stipulate that management should investigate alleged wrongdoing and take appropriate actions. Due to limited capacity of presiding officers in Department to institute disciplinary processes, The Office of the Premier in collaboration with the Provincial Department s Accounting Officers has initiated the process of engaging the state attorneys to provide labour relations capacity to expedite disciplinary cases. Furthermore, in collaboration with Accounting Officers of Departments a project plan is being developed to monitor the implementation of consequence management in department. 45

  42. INTERVENTIONS TO IMPROVE RECOVERY OF ASSETS The Office of the Premier seeks to improve the recovery of assets by implementing the following interventions: Strengthen relations with the Asset Forfeiture Unit (AFU) guidance was provided by the AFU, to the Provincial Anti-Corruption Co-ordinating Committee (PACCC). Facilitate the recovery through the Special Tribunal at the Special Investigating Unit. Tracking the implementation of the recommendations of the final forensic investigation reports. Monitoring recovery of funds by the Gauteng Audit Committee. 46

  43. CONCLUSION Over the past five years, the Gauteng Provincial Government laid a firm foundation for clean governance through the Open Tender Process and other public financial management initiatives which have a potential to improve the integrity of the procurement process. Audit outcomes improved exponentially across GPG departments and entities. The Honourable Premier and the Executive Council view corruption in a very serious light and it is for this reason that decisive action is being taken to ensure that all those responsible for corruption are brought to book and monies lost should be recovered. The Gauteng Ethics Advisory Council is assisting the Honourable Premier and Executive Council in ensuring an integrity-driven Gauteng City Region. Accordingly, the Honourable Premier also take matters of accountability and oversight by the executive authorities as well as the responsibilities of accounting officers very seriously. The battle against corruption, malfeasance and maladministration will continue simultaneously with the determination to radically transform, modernise and re-industrialise the Gauteng City region and build a prosperous future for all. 47

  44. THANK YOU 48

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