November RENA Market Analysis & Validation Insights
Analyze the November RENA data regarding total amounts, RT congestion, DAM oversold, and more. Understand the impact of constraints and topology differences on market dynamics.
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Review of November RENA Jian Chen Market Analysis and Validation CMWG Mar. 8th, 2021
Monthly Sum of RENA Monthly RENA 30 Millions 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 2018_11 2019_2 2019_5 2019_8 2019_11 2020_2 2020_5 2020_8 2020_11 2 PUBLIC
Daily RENA with RT Congestion The total RENA in November was around $22.4M, while the total SCED congestion rent was around $146.2M. Daily RENA vs RT Congestion Rent 8.0 20.0 Millions Millions 6.0 15.0 4.0 10.0 2.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -5.0 11/1/2020 11/6/2020 11/11/2020 11/16/2020 11/21/2020 11/26/2020 sum_rent RENA 3 PUBLIC
Daily RENA and estimated DAM oversold The total estimated DAM oversold amount in November was around $9.0M. Estimated DAM oversold vs RENA 8.0 Millions 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 11/1/2020 11/6/2020 11/11/2020 11/16/2020 11/21/2020 11/26/2020 RENA Sum of Oversold 4 PUBLIC
OD 11/11/2020~11/17/2020 Multiple millions RENA were observed between 11/11 and 11/17. Most of the RENA was related to the RT constraint DCPSJON5: 152__A. DAM oversold on the RT congestion: There was about total $6.6M DAM oversold on the RT constraint DCPSJON5: 152__A during those ODs. Even after ERCOT DAM team add the constraint in DAM watch list so that the constraint was binding in DAM, the oversold continued, due to the Pre/Post RAS topology difference in DAM/RTM. Different RT Congestion Rent in Settlement: it was also found a large difference between SCED calculated RT congestion rent versus the Settlement collected congestion rent on those ODs, with a total amount around $7.7M. It was mostly due to some of real time energy was settled at the meter prices different from the resource dispatching prices, which was related to contingency DCPSJON5. 5 PUBLIC
DAM Oversold when Constraint was Binding in DAM with pre-RAS topology (Example) For the Resource Node where RAS action is defined, it has a hurting SF in DAM, as the Resource Node remains energized for DAM post- contingency analysis. Any DAM position buy MWs from that Resource Node helps to relief the constraint. But when evaluating oversold with a RT post-contingency and post-RAS topology, the same DAM position would become almost no impact to constraint. Then the overall DAM positions become oversold in RTM. Constraint binding both in DAM and RTM RAS action Resource with RAS action X G DAM (Pre-RAS) SF: 50% RTM (Post-RAS) SF: ~0% (pick-up SF) 6 PUBLIC
Cause of Different Congestion Rent in Settlement (Example) The missing congestion rent in Settlement happened when some real time resource meter price (RTRMPR) was higher than the resource s dispatching price, which was related to the locations of meters and the contingency definition. Note: If the EBs was energized in Base Case but disconnected by the constraint contingency, its SF for this constraint would be 0. LN1 LN2 200MW 100MW X System Lambda $30 SF: 0% RTRMPR: $30 SF: 50% RTRMPR: $-20 Meter 2 Meter 1 Shadow Price $100 X CB1 CB2 SF: 50% Res LMP: $-20 Resource 300MW G 7 PUBLIC
OD 11/26/2020 About $1.3M RENA was observed on OD 11/26/2020, most of the RENA was related to the following issues: PTP w/links to option: As RT constraints caused high prices in Valley and Far West areas, the PTP w/links to options sourced from the Resource Nodes at NEDIN and RIGGINS were priced with negative values but settled as 0. The total negative values from those PTP options was around $0.7M. DAM oversold on the RT constraint: About $0.3M oversold was also observed on constraint SHACPB38: LYNX_TOMBST1_1, which had $5.1M RT congestion rent on that day. 8 PUBLIC
Summary A total of $22.4M RENA observed in November, 2020, which was high comparing to historical data. Part of RENA in November was related to congestion oversold in DAM, which could be further related to topology difference between DAM and RTM, LDF, and RAS modeling. PTP w/ links to options contributed part of RENA in November, which is around $6.4 million. The highest amount happened on 11/26 with $0.7M. A large amount of congestion rent differences were also observed between SCED and Settlement, which also contributed a significant part of November RENA. 9 PUBLIC
November CRR Balance Account Daily CRR value vs DAM congestion Rent 15.0 Millions 10.0 5.0 0.0 11/1/2020 11/6/2020 11/11/2020 11/16/2020 11/21/2020 11/26/2020 Payment/Charge to CRRAH DACONGRENT Daily Credit/Charge 0.5 Millions 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 11/1/2020 11/6/2020 11/11/2020 11/16/2020 11/21/2020 11/26/2020 10 PUBLIC
