Expanded Measures of Intellectual Property in GDP Analysis
Explore the impact of intellectual property investment on real GDP growth, private investment comparisons, performance during recessions and expansions, R&D investment by industry, and types of IP investments. Discover insights from J. Steven Landefeld, Director at www.bea.gov.
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Expanded Measures of IP in GDP J. Steven Landefeld Director 1 www.bea.gov
IP Investment in GDP Intellectual property products (new category including R&D, software and entertainment, literary and artistic originals) increased the growth rate of real GDP by .19 percentage point, a 7.6% share of growth. From 1995-2012, incorporating R&D investment increased the growth rate of real GDP by.07 percentage point, a 2.8% share of growth. Even if IP spillovers are as large as direct effects, the contribution of IP appears to explain only about half of the 1/3 of long-term share of growth accounted for by multi-factor productivity. www.bea.gov 2
IP Investment in GDP In comparison, private investment in commercial and other types of structures accounted for just over .4 percent of average real GDP growth from 1995-2012. The contribution to average real GDP growth from IP products is larger than private investment in computers and peripheral equipment. Recognition of private R&D as investment raises private fixed investment by 10 percent in 2012. www.bea.gov 3
New quarterly detail [% chg] Percent Change from preceding period in Real GDP www.bea.gov 4
Performance During Recessions Recessions (peak to trough) % chg. in Real GDP % chg in IP products 1948:IV-1949:IV 1953:II-1954:II 1957:III-1958:II 1960:II-1961:I 1969:IV-1970:IV 1973:IV-1975:I 1980:I-1980:III 1981:III-1982:IV 1990:III-1991:I 2001:I-2001:IV 2007:IV-2009:II -1.1 -2.4 -1.9 -0.7 -0.4 -1.4 -2.4 -0.9 -1.7 0.2 -2.2 0.8 4.9 3.5 11.1 -1.9 1.5 2.8 5.3 5.3 -2.7 1.0 overall average -1.3 2.9 www.bea.gov 5
Performance During Expansions Expansions (trough to peak) % chg. in Real GDP % chg in IP products 1950:I-1953:I 1954:III-1957:II 1958:III-1960:I 1961:II-1969:III 1971:I-1973:III 1975:II-1979:IV 1980:IV-1981:II 1983:I-1990:II 1991:II-2000:IV 2002:I-2007:III 2009:III-2013:III 7.8 4.1 6.7 5.1 5.3 4.5 4.4 4.4 3.8 2.9 2.3 14.3 9.4 7.6 8.3 5.4 8.4 13.8 9.1 8.5 4.6 3.0 overall average 4.7 8.4 www.bea.gov 6
Shares R&D Investment by Industry www.bea.gov 7
New detail by type of IP Share of Investment in Entertainment, literary and Artistic Originals by Type Misc. Music Theatrical Movies Books Long-Lived Television Total Investment in 2012: $74.8 billion Source: BEA www.bea.gov 8
